Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016

Last updated on 2 July 2017

This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016 despite being behind in nearly all opinion polls.[1][2] Media analysts differ as to why the polling industry was unable to correctly forecast the result.[1][2] Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.[3] Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the electoral college.

Aggregate polls

Poll numbers verified as of November 8, 2016.

Race Poll model Hillary
Clinton

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Gary
Johnson

Libertarian
Jill
Stein

Green
Leading by
(points)
Two-way 270 to Win 47.2% 43.6% N/A 3.6
BBC 48.0% 44.0% 4.0
Election Projection 47.0% 43.8% 3.2
HuffPost Pollster 47.3% 42.0% 5.3
New York Times 45.9% 42.8% 3.1
Real Clear Politics 46.8% 43.6% 3.2
TPM Polltracker 48.8% 43.9% 4.9
Three-way FiveThirtyEight 45.7% 41.8% 4.8% N/A 3.9
HuffPost Pollster 45.7% 40.8% 5.0% 4.9
New York Times 45.4% 42.3% 5.0% 3.1
TPM Polltracker 46.0% 44.1% 4.9% 1.9
Four-way 270 to Win 45.6% 42.5% 4.8% 2.1% 3.1
Election Projection 45.3% 42.0% 4.8% 2.1% 3.3
Real Clear Politics 45.5% 42.2% 4.7% 1.9% 3.3
CNN Poll of Polls 46.0% 42.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0
TPM Polltracker 46.6% 43.8% 4.6% 2.7% 2.8
Election results 48.1% 46.0% 3.3% 1.1% 2.1

Individual polls

Two-way race

Since convention nominations

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
UPI/CVoter[4] November 1–7, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,728 ± 3.0%
YouGov/The Economist[5] November 4–7, 2016 49% 45% 4 3,677 ± 1.7%
Bloomberg News/Selzer[6] November 4–6, 2016 46% 43% 3 799 ± 3.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[7] November 3–6, 2016 49% 46% 3 2,220 ± 2.5%
Fox News[8] November 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 4 1,295 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[9] November 3–6, 2016 43% 42% 1 1,026 ± 3.1%
Monmouth University[10] November 3–6, 2016 50% 44% 6 802 ± 3.6%
Ipsos/Reuters[11] November 2–6, 2016 44% 39% 5 2,195 ± 2.4%
CBS News/New York Times[12] November 2–6, 2016 47% 43% 4 1,426 ± 3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[13] October 31 – November 6, 2016 51% 44% 7 70,194 ± 1.0%
CCES/YouGov[14] October 4 – November 6, 2016 43% 39% 4 84,292 ±%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[15] November 3–5, 2016 48% 43% 5 1,282 ± 2.73%
ABC News/Washington Post[16] November 2–5, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,937 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[17] November 2–5, 2016 45% 44% 1 903 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[18] October 30 – November 5, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,572 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[19] October 30 – November 5, 2016 43% 48% 5 2,988 ± 4.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[20] November 1–4, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,685 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[21] November 1–4, 2016 46% 43% 3 804 ± 3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[22] October 31 – November 4, 2016 44% 40% 4 2,244 ± 2.4%
UPI/CVoter[23] October 29 – November 4, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,497 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[24] October 29 – November 4, 2016 43% 48% 5 2,987 ± 4.5%
Fox News[25] November 1–3, 2016 46% 45% 1 1,107 ± 3.0%
McClatchy/Marist[26] November 1–3, 2016 46% 44% 2 940 ± 3.2%
Ipsos/Reuters[27] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 39% 5 2,021 ± 2.6%
ABC News/Washington Post[28] October 31 – November 3, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,419 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[29] October 30 – November 3, 2016 45% 44% 1 898 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[30] October 28 – November 3, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,395 ± 3.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[31] October 30 – November 2, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,151 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[32] October 29 – November 2, 2016 45% 39% 6 1,858 ± 2.6%
IBD/TIPP[33] October 29 – November 2, 2016 44% 44% Tied 867 ± 3.4%
UPI/CVoter[34] October 27 – November 2, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,329 ± 3.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[35] October 29 – November 1, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,167 ± 3.0%
CBS News/New York Times[36] October 28 – November 1, 2016 47% 44% 3 1,333 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[37] October 28 – November 1, 2016 45% 39% 6 1,772 ± 3.0%
YouGov/The Economist[38] October 30 – November 1, 2016 48% 45% 3 1,233 ± 3.2%
IBD/TIPP[39] October 27 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% Tied 862 ± 3.4%
UPI/CVoter[40] October 26 – November 1, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,383 ±3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[41] October 26 – November 1, 2016 42% 48% 6 3,004 ± 4.5%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[42] October 31, 2016 50% 50% Tied 5,360 ± 1.3%
ABC News/Washington Post[43] October 28–31, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,182 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[44] October 26–31, 2016 45% 44% 1 1,018 ± 3.2%
Politico/Morning Consult[45] October 29–30, 2016 46% 43% 3 1,772 ± 2.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[46] October 27–30, 2016 52% 47% 5 2,075 ± 3.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[47] October 27–30, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,167 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[48] October 26–30, 2016 44% 39% 5 1,264 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[49] October 25–30, 2016 45% 43% 2 993 ± 3.2%
UPI/CVoter[50] October 24–30, 2016 49% 48% 1 1,299 ±3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51] October 24–30, 2016 51% 44% 7 40,816 ± 1.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[52] October 26–29, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,165 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[53] October 24–29, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,039 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[54] October 23–29, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,317 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[55] October 27–28, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,794 ± 2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[56] October 25–28, 2016 46% 45% 1 1,160 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[57] October 23–28, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,013 ± 3.3%
ABC News/Washington Post[58] October 24–27, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,148 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[59] October 22–27, 2016 45% 42% 3 973 ± 3.3%
Ipsos/Reuters[60] October 21–27, 2016 42% 36% 6 1,627 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[61] October 21–27, 2016 44% 46% 2 3,248 ± 4.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[62] October 23–26, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,150 ± 3.0%
YouGov/The Economist[63] October 22–26, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,376 ± 3.1%
IBD/TIPP[64] October 21–26, 2016 44% 42% 2 945 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[65] October 20–26, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,363 ± 3.0%
Fox News[66] October 22–25, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,221 ± 2.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[67] October 22–25, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,135 ± 3.0%
Pew Research Center[68] October 20–25, 2016 50% 43% 7 2,120 ± 2.4%
IBD/TIPP[69] October 20–25, 2016 43% 41% 2 921 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[70] October 19–25, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,349 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[71] October 19–25, 2016 44% 45% 1 3,145 ± 4.5%
CNBC[72] October 21–24, 2016 47% 37% 10 804 ± 3.5%
ABC News[73] October 21–24, 2016 51% 43% 8 1,119 ± 3.0%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[74] October 21–24, 2016 53% 41% 12 900 ± 3.27%
Associated Press/GFK[75] October 20–24, 2016 54% 41% 13 1,546 ± 2.75%
USA Today/Suffolk University[76] October 20–24, 2016 49% 39% 10 1,000 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[77] October 20–24, 2016 43% 37% 6 1,170 ± 3.3%
IBD/TIPP[78] October 19–24, 2016 43% 42% 1 873 ± 3.6%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[79] October 20–23, 2016 50% 50% Tied 2,109 ± 2.1%
ABC News[80] October 20–23, 2016 53% 41% 12 1,155 ± 3.0%
CNN/ORC[81] October 20–23, 2016 51% 45% 6 779 ± 3.5%
IBD/TIPP[82] October 18–23, 2016 42% 42% Tied 815 ± 3.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[83] October 17–23, 2016 50% 44% 6 32,225 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[84] October 17–23, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,414 ± 3.0%
ABC News[85] October 20–22, 2016 53% 41% 12 874 ± 3.5%
IBD/TIPP[86] October 17–22, 2016 42% 43% 1 783 ± 3.6%
IBD/TIPP[87] October 16–21, 2016 42% 42% Tied 791 ± 3.6%
Politico/Morning Consult[88] October 19–20, 2016 46% 40% 6 1,395 ± 3.0%
American Research Group[89] October 17–20, 2016 49% 42% 7 1,006 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[90] October 15–20, 2016 43% 41% 2 789 ± 3.6%
USC/Los Angeles Times[91] October 14–20, 2016 44% 45% 1 3,001 ± 4.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[92] October 14–20, 2016 44% 40% 4 1,640 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[93] October 14–19, 2016 43% 41% 2 779 ± 3.6%
Quinnipiac University[94] October 17–18, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,007 ± 3.1%
YouGov/The Economist[95] October 15–18, 2016 47% 43% 4 1,300 ± 4.0%
IBD/TIPP[96] October 13–18, 2016 44% 41% 3 782 ± 3.6%
Fox News[97] October 15–17, 2016 49% 42% 7 912 ± 3.0%
Bloomberg Politics[98] October 14–17, 2016 50% 41% 9 1,006 ± 3.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[99] October 13–17, 2016 43% 39% 4 1,190 ± 3.2%
Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[100] October 12–17, 2016 51% 36% 15 692 ±4.4%
UPI/CVoter[101] October 11–17, 2016 51% 46% 5 1,326 ± 3.0%
Monmouth University[102] October 14–16, 2016 53% 41% 12 805 ± 3.5%
CBS News[103] October 12–16, 2016 51% 40% 11 1,411 ± 3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[104] October 10–16, 2016 51% 43% 8 24,804 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[105] October 10–16, 2016 50% 46% 4 1,325 ± 3.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[106] October 13–15, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,737 ± 2.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[107] October 10–13, 2016 51% 41% 10 905 ±3.3%
ABC News/Washington Post[108] October 10–13, 2016 50% 46% 4 740 ±4.0%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[109] October 9–13, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,001 ±3.1%
George Washington University[110] October 8–13, 2016 47% 39% 8 1,000 ± 3.1%
UPI/CVoter[111] October 7–13, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,482 ± 3.0%
Fox News[112] October 10–12, 2016 49% 41% 8 917 ± 3.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[113] October 10, 2016 46% 41% 5 1,757 ± 3.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[114] October 8–10, 2016 50% 40% 10 900 ± 3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[115] October 6–10, 2016 44% 37% 7 2,363 ± 2.3%
UPI/CVoter[116] October 4–10, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,367 ± 3.0%
Pew Research Center[117] September 27 – October 10, 2016 53% 44% 9 3,616 ± 2.9%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[118] October 8–9, 2016 52% 38% 14 422 ± 4.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[119] October 3–9, 2016 51% 44% 7 23,329 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[120] October 3–9, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,801 ± 3.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[121] October 8, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,390 ± 3.0%
YouGov/The Economist[122] October 7–8, 2016 48% 43% 5 1,300 ± 4.2%
Morning Consult[123] October 5–6, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,775 ± 2.0%
Quinnipiac University[124] October 5–6, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,064 ± 3.0%
Fox News[125] October 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 4 896 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[126] September 30 – October 6, 2016 43% 38% 5 1,695 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[127] September 30 – October 6, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,774 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[128] September 28 – October 4, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,274 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[129] September 28 – October 4, 2016 43% 47% 4 2,369 ± 4.5%
YouGov/The Economist[130] October 1–3, 2016 48% 43% 5 911 ± 3.9%
Ipsos/Reuters[131] September 29 – October 3, 2016 44% 37% 7 1,928 ± 2.5%
Politico/Morning Consult[132] September 30 – October 2, 2016 46% 39% 7 1,778 ± 2.0%
Farleigh Dickinson/SSRS[133] September 28 – October 2, 2016 50% 40% 10 788 ± 4.4%
CBS News/New York Times[134] September 28 – October 2, 2016 49% 43% 6 1,501 ± 3.0%
CNN/ORC[135] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 42% 5 1,501 ± 2.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[136] September 26 – October 2, 2016 50% 44% 6 26,925 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[137] September 26 – October 2, 2016 47% 49% 2 1,285 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[138] September 24–30, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,526 ± 4.5%
Fox News[139] September 27–29, 2016 49% 44% 5 911 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[140] September 23–29, 2016 43% 38% 5 2,501 ± 2.0%
UPI/CVoter[141] September 23–29, 2016 47% 49% 2 1,236 ± 3.0%
Public Policy Polling[142] September 27–28, 2016 49% 45% 4 993 ± 3.2%
Ipsos/Reuters[143] September 27–28, 2016 42% 38% 4 1,336 ± 3.1%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[144] September 27, 2016 50% 50% Tied 3,386 ± 1.7%
Echelon Insights[145] September 26–27, 2016 47% 42% 5 1,833 ±%
Morning Consult[146] September 26–27, 2016 45% 41% 4 1,253 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[147] September 21–27, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,239 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[148] September 22–26, 2016 44% 38% 6 1,041 ± 3.5%
Quinnipiac University[149] September 22–25, 2016 47% 46% 1 1,115 ± 2.9%
Monmouth University[150] September 22–25, 2016 49% 46% 3 729 ± 3.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[151] September 19–25, 2016 51% 44% 7 13,598 ± 1.1%
USC/Los Angeles Times[152] September 19–25, 2016 42% 46% 4 2,726 ± 4.5%
UPI/CVoter[153] September 19–25, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,052 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[154] September 22–24, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,712 ± 2.0%
Bloomberg/Selzer[155] September 21–24, 2016 46% 46% Tied 1,002 ± 3.1%
ABC News/Washington Post[156] September 19–22, 2016 49% 47% 2 651 ± 4.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[157] September 16–22, 2016 41% 37% 4 1,559 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[158] September 15–21, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,623 ± 2.3%
American Research Group[159] September 17–20, 2016 47% 44% 3 990 ± 3.2%
McClatchy/Marist[160] September 15–20, 2016 48% 41% 7 758 ± 3.6%
USC/Los Angeles Times[161] September 14–20, 2016 42% 46% 4 2,629 ± 2.3%
YouGov/Economist[162] September 18–19, 2016 45% 44% 1 936 ± 4.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[163] September 16–19, 2016 48% 41% 7 922 ± 3.23%
Ipsos/Reuters[164] September 15–19, 2016 39% 39% Tied 1,111 ± 3.4%
Associated Press/GFK[165] September 15–19, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,251 ± 2.5%
USC/Los Angeles Times[166] September 13–19, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,524 ± 2.2%
UPI/CVoter[167] September 12–18, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,203 ± 3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[168] September 12–18, 2016 50% 45% 5 13,230 ± 1.2%
UPI/CVoter[169] September 10–16, 2016 47% 47% Tied 1,246 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[170] September 9–15, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,229 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[171] September 9–15, 2016 42% 38% 4 1,579 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[172] September 9–15, 2016 41% 47% 6 2,497 ± 2.8%
Fox News[173] September 11–14, 2016 45% 46% 1 867 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[174] September 8–14, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,265 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[175] September 8–14, 2016 41% 47% 6 2,499 ± 3.1%
YouGov/Economist[176] September 10–13, 2016 46% 44% 2 1,087 ± 4.0%
CBS News/New York Times[177] September 9–13, 2016 46% 44% 2 1,433 ± 3%
Quinnipiac University[178] September 8–13, 2016 48% 43% 5 960 ± 3.2%
UPI/CVoter[179] September 7–13, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,245 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[180] September 7–13, 2016 42% 47% 5 2,550 ± 2.7%
Ipsos/Reuters[181] September 8–12, 2016 40% 39% 1 1,127 ± 3.3%
UPI/CVoter[182] September 6–12, 2016 46% 49% 3 1,232 ± 3.0%
Pew Research[183] August 16 – September 12, 2016 52% 44% 8 3,941 ± 2.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[184] September 5–11, 2016 48% 44% 4 16,220 ± 1.1%
UPI/CVoter[185] September 5–11, 2016 46% 49% 3 1,260 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[186] September 6–8, 2016 44% 43% 1 1,710 ± 2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[187] September 5–8, 2016 51% 43% 8 642 ± 4.5%
USC/Los Angeles Times[188] September 2–8, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,653 ± 2.4%
UPI/CVoter[189] September 2–8, 2016 46% 48% 2 1,256 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[190] September 1–7, 2016 47% 48% 1 1,226 ± 3.0%
YouGov/Economist[191] September 4–6, 2016 44% 42% 2 1,077 ± 4.7%
UPI/CVoter[192] August 31 – September 6, 2016 47% 47% Tied 1,262 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[193] September 1–5, 2016 40% 38% 2 1,084 ± 3.5%
UPI/CVoter[194] August 30 – September 5, 2016 48% 46% 2 1,220 ± 3.0%
CNN/ORC[195] September 1–4, 2016 48% 49% 1 786 ± 3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[196] August 29 – September 4, 2016 48% 42% 6 32,226 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[197] August 29 – September 4, 2016 49% 47% 2 1,237 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[198] August 28 – September 3, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,242 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[199] September 1–2, 2016 42% 40% 2 2,001 ± 2%
Ipsos/Reuters[200] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 40% 1 1,804 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[201] August 26 – September 1, 2016 44% 43% 1 861 ± 3.4%
Fox News[202] August 28–30, 2016 48% 42% 6 1,011 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[203] August 24–30, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,162 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[204] August 25–29, 2016 40% 39% 1 1,404 ± 3.0%
Suffolk University/USA Today[205] August 24–29, 2016 48% 41% 7 1,000 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[206] August 23–29, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,173 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[207] August 23–29, 2016 42% 45% 3 2,500 ± 2.5%
Public Policy Polling[208] August 26–28, 2016 48% 43% 5 881 ± 3.3%
Monmouth University[209] August 25–28, 2016 49% 42% 7 689 ± 3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[210] August 22–28, 2016 48% 42% 6 24,104 ± 1.0%
UPI/CVoter[211] August 22–28, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,145 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[212] August 21–27, 2016 50% 47% 3 1,682 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[213] August 24–26, 2016 43% 40% 3 2,007 ± 2%
Ipsos/Reuters[214] August 22–25, 2016 41% 36% 5 1,154 ± 3%
Ipsos/Reuters[215] August 20–24, 2016 42% 35% 7 1,049 ± 2.9%
UPI/CVoter[216] August 18–24, 2016 48% 49% 1 1,720 ± 3.0%
Quinnipiac University[217] August 18–24, 2016 51% 41% 10 1,496 ± 2.5%
USC/Los Angeles Times[218] August 18–24, 2016 44% 44% Tied 2,434 ± 2.3%
YouGov/Economist[219] August 19–23, 2016 47% 44% 3 1,080 ± 4.1%
UPI/CVoter[220] August 17–23, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,737 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[221] August 18–22, 2016 45% 33% 12 1,115 ± 3%
UPI/CVoter[222] August 16–22, 2016 48% 48% Tied 1,752 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[223] August 15–21, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,795 ± 3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[224] August 15–21, 2016 50% 42% 8 17,451 ± 1.1%
American Research Group[225] August 17–20, 2016 47% 42% 5 994 ± 3.2%
Morning Consult[226] August 16–20, 2016 44% 38% 6 2,001 ± 2%
UPI/CVoter[227] August 14–20, 2016 48% 47% 1 1,191 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[228] August 14–20, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,385 ± 2.8%
Ipsos/Reuters[229] August 13–17, 2016 41% 36% 5 1,049 ± 2.8%
UPI/CVoter[230] August 11–17, 2016 50% 46% 4 1,009 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[231] August 9–16, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,069 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[232] August 11–15, 2016 41% 35% 6 1,132 ± 3%
Normington, Petts & Associates[233] August 9–15, 2016 50% 40% 10 1,000 ± 3.1%
UPI/CVoter[234] August 9–15, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,035 ± 3.0%
Morning Consult[235] August 11–14, 2016 44% 37% 7 2,001 ± 2%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[236] August 8–14, 2016 50% 41% 9 15,179 ± 1.2%
UPI/CVoter[237] August 7–14, 2016 50% 45% 5 975 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[238] August 7–13, 2016 49% 46% 3 1,403 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[239] August 3–10, 2016 49% 45% 4 1,077 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[240] August 6–10, 2016 42% 36% 6 974 ± 2.9%
YouGov/Economist[241] August 6–9, 2016 48% 41% 7 1,300 ± 4.2%
UPI/CVoter[242] August 3–9, 2016 48% 46% 2 1,002 ± 3.0%
Bloomberg Politics[243] August 5–8, 2016 50% 44% 6 749 ± 3.6%
Ipsos/Reuters[244] August 4–8, 2016 42% 35% 7 1,152 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[245] August 2–8, 2016 49% 45% 4 993 ± 3.0%
PSRAI[246] August 4–7, 2016 45% 39% 6 798 ± 3.9%
UPI/CVoter[247] August 1–7, 2016 49% 44% 5 1,407 ± 3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[248] August 1–7, 2016 51% 41% 10 11,480 ± 1.2%
UPI/CVoter[249] July 31 – August 6, 2016 50% 43% 7 1,036 ± 3.0%
USC/Los Angeles Times[250] July 31 – August 6, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,146 ± 2.8%
Morning Consult[251] August 4–5, 2016 46% 37% 9 2,001 ± 2%
ABC News/Washington Post[252] August 1–4, 2016 51% 44% 7 1,002 ± 3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[253] July 31 – August 4, 2016 42% 39% 3 1,154 ± 3.0%
UPI/CVoter[254] July 29 – August 4, 2016 50% 44% 6 1,060 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[255] July 29 – August 4, 2016 46% 39% 7 921 ± 3.4%
McClatchy/Marist[256] August 1–3, 2016 48% 33% 15 983 ± 3.1%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[257] July 31 – August 3, 2016 47% 38% 9 800 ± 3.46%
Ipsos/Reuters[258] July 30 – August 3, 2016 43% 39% 4 1,072 ± 3.5%
USC/Los Angeles Times[259] July 28 – August 3, 2016 45% 44% 1 2,175 ± 2.4%
UPI/CVoter[260] July 27 – August 2, 2016 49% 46% 3 989 ± 3.0%
Fox News[261] July 31 – August 2, 2016 49% 39% 10 1,022 ± 3%
USC/Los Angeles Times[262] July 27 – August 2, 2016 44% 45% 1 2,186 ± 2.2%
YouGov/Economist[263] July 31 – August 1, 2016 46% 43% 3 1,300 ± 4%
Ipsos/Reuters[264] July 28 – August 1, 2016 43% 35% 8 1,289 ± 3%
USC/Los Angeles Times[265] July 26 – August 1, 2016 43% 45% 2 2,171 ± 2.5%
CNN/ORC[266] July 29–31, 2016 52% 43% 9 1,003 ± 3%
CBS News[267] July 29–31, 2016 47% 41% 6 1,131 ± 3%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[268] July 25–31, 2016 50% 42% 8 12,742 ± 1.2%
Morning Consult[269] July 29–30, 2016 43% 40% 3 1,931 ± 2%
Public Policy Polling[270] July 29–30, 2016 50% 45% 5 1,276 ± 2.7%

Polls conducted in 2016

Polls conducted in 2015

Polls conducted in 2014

Polls conducted in 2013

Three-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Google Consumer Surveys[534] November 1–7, 2016 38% 36% 5% 2 26,574 ± 0.65%
Angus Reid Institute[535] November 1–4, 2016 48% 44% 6% 4 1,151 ± 2.9%
RAND American Life Panel[536] October 20 – November 1, 2016 44% 35% 8% 9 2,269 ± 1.9%
Google Consumer Surveys[537] October 20–24, 2016 39% 34% 6% 5 21,240 ±0.73%
Public Policy Polling[538] October 20–21, 2016 46% 40% 5% 6 990 ±3.18%
Google Consumer Surveys[539] October 15–19, 2016 39% 34% 6% 5 22,826 ±0.70%
Google Consumer Surveys[540] October 10–14, 2016 38% 33% 7% 5 19,900 ±0.75%
Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[541] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 41% 3% 6 609 ±3.6%
Google Consumer Surveys[542] September 27 – October 3, 2016 39% 34% 7% 5 22,006 ±0.71%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[144] September 27, 2016 47% 43% 6% 4 3,386 ±1.7%
Google Consumer Surveys[543] September 14–20, 2016 36% 35% 8% 1 20,864 ±0.73%

Four-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
YouGov/The Economist[5] November 4–7, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 3,677 ± 1.7%
Insights West[561] November 4–7, 2016 49% 45% 4% 1% 4 940 ± 3.2%
Bloomberg News/Selzer[6] November 4–6, 2016 44% 41% 4% 2% 3 799 ± 3.5%
Gravis Marketing[562] November 3–6, 2016 47% 43% 3% 2% 4 16,639 ± 0.8%
ABC News/Washington Post[7] November 3–6, 2016 47% 43% 4% 1% 4 2,220 ± 2.5%
Fox News[8] November 3–6, 2016 48% 44% 3% 2% 4 1,295 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[9] November 3–6, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,026 ± 3.1%
Monmouth University[10] November 3–6, 2016 50% 44% 4% 1% 6 802 ± 3.6%
Ipsos/Reuters[11] November 2–6, 2016 42% 39% 6% 3% 3 2,195 ± 2.4%
CBS News/New York Times[12] November 2–6, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 1,426 ± 3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[563] November 2–6, 2016 45% 43% 4% 2% 2 1,500 ± 2.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[13] October 31– November 6, 2016 47% 41% 6% 3% 6 70,194 ± 1.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[564] November 4–5, 2016 45% 42% 8% 2% 3 1,482 ± 3.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[15] November 3–5, 2016 44% 40% 6% 2% 4 1,282 ± 2.73%
ABC News/Washington Post[16] November 2–5, 2016 47% 43% 4% 2% 4 1,937 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[17] November 2–5, 2016 43% 44% 5% 2% 1 903 ± 3.3%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[565] November 1–5, 2016 48% 44% 4% 2% 4 1,009 ± 3.1%
ABC News/Washington Post[20] November 1–4, 2016 48% 43% 4% 2% 5 1,685 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[21] November 1–4, 2016 44% 44% 5% 2% Tied 804 ± 3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[22] October 31 – November 4, 2016 43% 39% 6% 2% 4 2,244 ± 2.4%
Rasmussen Reports[566] November 1–3, 2016 44% 44% 4% 1% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
Fox News[25] November 1–3, 2016 45% 43% 5% 2% 2 1,107 ± 3.0%
McClatchy/Marist[26] November 1–3, 2016 44% 43% 6% 2% 1 940 ± 3.2%
IBD/TIPP[29] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 898 ± 3.3%
ABC News/Washington Post[28] October 31 – November 3, 2016 47% 43% 4% 2% 4 1,419 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[27] October 30 – November 3, 2016 44% 37% 6% 2% 7 2,021 ± 2.6%
Gravis Marketing/Breitbart News[567] November 1–2, 2016 47% 45% 3% 1% 2 2,435 ± 2.0%
Rasmussen Reports[568] October 31 – November 2, 2016 42% 45% 4% 1% 3 1,500 ± 2.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[31] October 30 – November 2, 2016 47% 44% 3% 2% 3 1,151 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[33] October 29 – November 2, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 867 ± 3.4%
Ipsos/Reuters[32] October 29 – November 2, 2016 45% 37% 5% 2% 8 1,858 ± 2.6%
Rasmussen Reports[569] October 30 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% 5% 2% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
YouGov/Economist[38] October 30 – November 1, 2016 46% 43% 4% 2% 3 1,233 ± 3.2%
ABC News/Washington Post[35] October 29 – November 1, 2016 47% 45% 3% 2% 2 1,167 ± 3.0%
CBS News/New York Times[36] October 28 – November 1, 2016 45% 42% 5% 4% 3 862 ± 3.4%
Ipsos/Reuters[37] October 28 – November 1, 2016 55% 47% 5% 2% 8 1,772 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[39] October 27 – November 1, 2016 44% 44% 4% 2% Tied 862 ± 3.4%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[42] October 31, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 5,360 ± 1.3%
ABC News/Washington Post[43] October 28–31, 2016 46% 46% 3% 2% Tied 1,167 ± 3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[570] October 27–31, 2016 45% 45% 5% 2% Tied 1,500 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[44] October 26–31, 2016 45% 44% 4% 2% 1 1,018 ± 3.2%
Politico/Morning Consult[45] October 29–30, 2016 42% 39% 7% 5% 3 1,772 ±2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[47] October 27–30, 2016 45% 46% 3% 2% 1 1,167 ± 3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[48] October 26–30, 2016 43% 37% 6% 1% 6 1,264 ± 3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[571] October 26–30, 2016 45% 42% 5% 2% 3 1,500 ± 2.5%
IBD/TIPP[49] October 25–30, 2016 45% 44% 4% 2% 1 993 ± 3.2%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51] October 24–30, 2016 47% 41% 6% 3% 6 40,816 ±1.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[52] October 26–29, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 1,165 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[53] October 24–29, 2016 44% 42% 6% 2% 2 1,039 ± 3.3%
Red Oak Strategic/Google Consumer Surveys[572] October 27–28, 2016 37% 37% 6% 2% Tied 943 ± 3.7%
Morning Consult[55] October 27–28, 2016 42% 39% 8% 4% 3 1,794 ± 2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[56] October 25–28, 2016 46% 45% 4% 2% 1 1,160 ± 3.0%
IBD/TIPP[57] October 23–28, 2016 45% 41% 7% 2% 4 1,013 ± 3.3%
Rasmussen Reports[573] October 25–27, 2016 45% 45% 3% 2% Tied 1,500 ±2.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[58] October 24–27, 2016 47% 45% 4% 2% 2 1,148 ±3.0%
IBD/TIPP[59] October 22–27, 2016 44% 41% 7% 2% 3 973 ± 3.3%
Gravis Marketing/Breitbart[574] October 25–26, 2016 46% 45% 3% 1% 1 1,824 ±2.3%
Rasmussen Reports[575] October 24–26, 2016 45% 44% 4% 1% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[62] October 23–26, 2016 48% 44% 4% 1% 4 1,150 ±3.0%
YouGov/Economist[63] October 22–26, 2016 46% 41% 4% 2% 5 1,376 ±3.1%
Saint Leo University[576] October 22–26, 2016 45% 34% 6% 2% 11 1,050 ±%
IBD/TIPP[64] October 21–26, 2016 43% 41% 8% 2% 2 945 ± 3.3%
Rasmussen Reports[577] October 23–25, 2016 44% 43% 4% 1% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Fox News[66] October 22–25, 2016 44% 41% 7% 3% 3 1,221 ±2.5%
ABC News/Washington Post[67] October 22–25, 2016 48% 42% 5% 1% 6 1,135 ±3.0%
Pew Research Center[68] October 20–25, 2016 46% 40% 6% 3% 6 2,120 ± 2.4%
IBD/TIPP[69] October 20–25, 2016 42% 41% 8% 3% 1 921 ± 3.3%
CNBC[72] October 21–24, 2016 43% 34% 7% 2% 9 804 ± 3.5%
ABC News[73] October 21–24, 2016 49% 40% 5% 2% 9 1,119 ±3.0%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[74] October 21–24, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 900 ± 3.27%
Associated Press/GFK[75] October 20–24, 2016 51% 37% 6% 2% 14 1,546 ± 2.75%
USA Today/Suffolk University[76] October 20–24, 2016 47% 38% 4% 2% 9 1,000 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[77] October 20–24, 2016 42% 38% 7% 2% 4 1,170 ±3.3%
Rasmussen Reports[578] October 20–24, 2016 43% 42% 5% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
IBD/TIPP[78] October 19–24, 2016 42% 41% 8% 3% 1 873 ± 3.6%
ABC News[80] October 20–23, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 1,155 ±3.0%
CNN/ORC[81] October 20–23, 2016 49% 44% 3% 2% 5 779 ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[579] October 19–23, 2016 41% 43% 5% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
IBD/TIPP[82] October 18–23, 2016 41% 41% 7% 3% Tied 815 ± 3.6%
Centre College[580] October 18–23, 2016 45% 40% 6% 1% 5 569 ±4.1%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[83] October 17–23, 2016 46% 41% 7% 3% 5 32,225 ± 1.0%
ABC News[85] October 20–22, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 1,391 ±3.5%
IBD/TIPP[86] October 17–22, 2016 41% 43% 7% 3% 2 783 ± 3.6%
IBD/TIPP[87] October 16–21, 2016 40% 42% 7% 4% 2 791 ±3.6%
Politico/Morning Consult[88] October 19–20, 2016 42% 36% 9% 4% 6 1,395 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[581] October 18–20, 2016 41% 43% 5% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[92] October 14–20, 2016 43% 39% 6% 2% 4 1,640 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[582] October 17–19, 2016 40% 43% 6% 3% 3 1,500 ±2.5%
IBD/TIPP[93] October 14–19, 2016 40% 41% 7% 5% 1 779 ±3.6%
Quinnipiac University[94] October 17–18, 2016 47% 40% 7% 1% 7 1,007 ±3.1%
YouGov/Economist[95] October 15–18, 2016 42% 38% 6% 1% 4 1,300 ±3.9%
IBD/TIPP[96] October 13–18, 2016 40% 41% 8% 6% 1 782 ±3.6%
Fox News[97] October 15–17, 2016 45% 39% 5% 3% 6 912 ±3.0%
Bloomberg Politics[98] October 14–17, 2016 47% 38% 8% 3% 9 1,006 ±3.1%
Rasmussen Reports[583] October 13–17, 2016 42% 41% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[99] October 13–17, 2016 42% 38% 6% 2% 4 1,190 ±3.2%
Monmouth University[102] October 14–16, 2016 50% 38% 5% 2% 12 805 ±3.5%
CBS News[103] October 12–16, 2016 47% 38% 8% 3% 9 1,411 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[584] October 12–16, 2016 43% 41% 5% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[104] October 10–16, 2016 46% 40% 8% 4% 6 24,804 ± 1.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[106] October 13–15, 2016 42% 36% 10% 3% 6 1,737 ±2.0%
SurveyUSA/Boston Globe[585] October 11–14, 2016 46% 36% 5% 2% 10 845 ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports[586] October 11–13, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[107] October 10–13, 2016 48% 37% 7% 2% 11 1,000 ±3.1%
ABC News/Washington Post[108] October 10–13, 2016 47% 43% 5% 2% 4 740 ±4.0%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[109] October 9–13, 2016 46% 41% 6% 2% 5 1,011 ±3.1%
George Washington University[110] October 8–13, 2016 47% 39% 8% 2% 8 1,000 ±3.1%
Fox News[112] October 10–12, 2016 45% 38% 7% 3% 7 917 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[587] October 10–12, 2016 41% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Insights West[588] October 10–11, 2016 47% 41% 7% 3% 6 953 ±3.2%
Rasmussen Reports[589] October 9–11, 2016 43% 39% 7% 2% 4 1,500 ±2.5%
Politico/Morning Consult[113] October 10, 2016 42% 37% 10% 3% 5 1,757 ±3.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[114] October 8–10, 2016 45% 36% 8% 2% 9 806 ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[590] October 6–10, 2016 44% 39% 7% 2% 5 1,500 ±2.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[115] October 6–10, 2016 44% 37% 6% 2% 7 2,363 ±2.3%
Pew Research[117] September 27 – October 10, 2016 46% 39% 10% 4% 7 3,616 ± 2.9%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[118] October 8–9, 2016 46% 35% 9% 2% 11 422 ±4.6%
Rasmussen Reports[591] October 5–9, 2016 45% 38% 7% 2% 7 1,500 ±2.5%
Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[592] October 5–9, 2016 49% 38% 2% 0% 11 886 ±3.9%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[119] October 3–9, 2016 46% 41% 8% 3% 5 23,329 ±1.0%
Politico/Morning Consult[121] October 8, 2016 42% 38% 8% 3% 4 1,390 ±3.0%
YouGov/Economist[122] October 7–8, 2016 44% 38% 5% 1% 6 1,300 ±4.3%
Morning Consult[123] October 5–6, 2016 41% 39% 9% 3% 2 1,775 ±2.0%
Quinnipiac University[124] October 5–6, 2016 45% 40% 6% 2% 5 1,064 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[593] October 4–6, 2016 43% 42% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Fox News[125] October 3–6, 2016 44% 42% 6% 2% 2 896 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[126] September 30 – October 6, 2016 42% 37% 8% 2% 5 1,695 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[594] October 3–5, 2016 41% 43% 8% 3% 2 1,500 ±2.5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[595] October 3, 2016 44% 44% 5% 1% Tied 1,690 ±2.5%
YouGov/Economist[130] October 1–3, 2016 43% 40% 5% 3% 3 911 ±3.9%
Ipsos/Reuters[131] September 29 – October 3, 2016 42% 36% 8% 2% 6 1,239 ±3.2%
Rasmussen Reports[596] September 29 – October 3, 2016 42% 41% 9% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Politico/Morning Consult[132] September 30 – October 2, 2016 42% 36% 9% 3% 6 1,778 ±2.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[133] September 28 – October 2, 2016 45% 36% 11% 3% 9 385 ±5.0%
CBS News/New York Times[134] September 28 – October 2, 2016 45% 41% 8% 3% 4 1,217 ±3.0%
CNN/ORC[135] September 28 – October 2, 2016 47% 42% 7% 2% 5 N/A ±N/A%
Rasmussen Reports[597] September 28 – October 2, 2016 43% 40% 8% 2% 3 1,500 ±2.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[136] September 26 – October 2, 2016 46% 40% 9% 3% 6 26,925 ±1.0%
Fox News[139] September 27–29, 2016 43% 40% 8% 4% 3 911 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[140] September 23–29, 2016 42% 38% 7% 3% 4 2,501 ±2.0%
Rasmussen Reports[598] September 26–28, 2016 42% 41% 7% 2% 1 1,500 ±2.5%
Morning Consult[146] September 26–27, 2016 41% 38% 8% 4% 3 1,253 ±3.0%
Public Religion Research Institute[599] September 1–27, 2016 49% 41% 4% 1% 8 2,010 ±2.8%
Ipsos/Reuters[148] September 22–26, 2016 42% 38% 7% 2% 4 1,041 ±3.5%
Quinnipiac University[149] September 22–25, 2016 44% 43% 8% 2% 1 1,115 ±2.9%
Monmouth University[150] September 22–25, 2016 46% 42% 8% 2% 4 729 ±3.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[151] September 19–25, 2016 45% 40% 10% 3% 5 13,598 ±1.1%
Morning Consult[154] September 22–24, 2016 38% 39% 9% 4% 1 1,712 ±2.0%
YouGov/Economist[600] September 22–24, 2016 44% 41% 5% 2% 3 948 ±3.8%
Bloomberg/Selzer[155] September 21–24, 2016 41% 43% 8% 4% 2 1,002 ±3.1%
ABC News/Washington Post[156] September 19–22, 2016 46% 44% 5% 1% 2 651 ±4.5%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[601] September 18–22, 2016 45% 43% 6% 2% 2 1,017 ±3.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[157] September 16–22, 2016 39% 37% 7% 2% 2 1,559 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[602] September 20–21, 2016 39% 44% 8% 2% 5 1,000 ±3.0%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[603] September 20, 2016 44% 40% 5% 2% 4 1,560 ±2.5%
McClatchy/Marist[160] September 15–20, 2016 45% 39% 10% 4% 6 758 ±3.6%
YouGov/Economist[162] September 18–19, 2016 40% 38% 7% 2% 2 936 ±4.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[163] September 16–19, 2016 43% 37% 9% 3% 6 922 ±3.2%
iCitizen[604] September 15–19, 2016 42% 37% 5% 3% 5 1,000 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[164] September 15–19, 2016 37% 39% 7% 2% 2 1,111 ±3.4%
Associated Press/GFK[165] September 15–19, 2016 45% 39% 9% 2% 6 1,251 ±2.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[168] September 12–18, 2016 45% 40% 10% 4% 5 13,230 ±1.2%
Morning Consult[605] September 15–16, 2016 42% 40% 8% 3% 2 1,639 ±2.0%
Saint Leo University[606] September 12–16, 2016 46% 41% 9% 4% 5 1,005 ±3.0%
Fox News[173] September 11–14, 2016 41% 40% 8% 3% 1 867 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[607] September 12–13, 2016 40% 42% 7% 2% 2 1,000 ±3.0%
Emerson College[608] September 11–13, 2016 41% 43% 9% 2% 2 800 ±3.4%
YouGov/Economist[176] September 10–13, 2016 42% 40% 5% 3% 2 1,087 ±4.0%
CBS News/New York Times[177] September 9–13, 2016 42% 42% 8% 4% Tied 1,433 ±3.0%
Quinnipiac University[178] September 8–13, 2016 41% 39% 13% 4% 2 960 ±3.2%
Ipsos/Reuters[181] September 8–12, 2016 39% 39% 8% 2% Tied 1,127 ±3.3%
Pew Research[183] August 16 – September 12, 2016 45% 38% 10% 4% 2 3,941 ±2.6%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[184] September 5–11, 2016 42% 40% 11% 4% 2 16,220 ±1.1%
Gravis Marketing/Breitbart[609] September 7–8, 2016 43% 40% 7% 1% 3 2,348 ±2.0%
Morning Consult[186] September 6–8, 2016 43% 41% 10% 3% 2 1,710 ±2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[187] September 5–8, 2016 46% 41% 9% 2% 5 642 ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports[610] September 6–7, 2016 43% 39% 9% 2% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
YouGov/Economist[191] September 4–6, 2016 40% 38% 7% 5% 2 1,077 ±4.7%
Ipsos/Reuters[193] September 1–5, 2016 40% 38% 8% 3% 2 1,084 ±3.5%
CNN/ORC[195] September 1–4, 2016 43% 45% 7% 2% 2 786 ±3.5%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[611] August 31 – September 4, 2016 44% 41% 8% 3% 3 1,025 ±3.1%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[196] August 29 – September 4, 2016 41% 37% 12% 4% 4 32,226 ±1.0%
Morning Consult[199] September 1–2, 2016 38% 36% 9% 4% 2 2,001 ±2.0%
George Washington University[612] August 28 – September 1, 2016 42% 40% 11% 3% 2 1,000 ±3.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[200] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 39% 7% 2% Tied 1,804 ±3.0%
IBD/TPP[201] August 26 – September 1, 2016 39% 39% 12% 3% Tied 861 ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports[613] August 29–30, 2016 39% 40% 7% 3% 1 1,000 ±3.0%
Fox News[202] August 28–30, 2016 41% 39% 9% 4% 2 1,011 ±3.0%
YouGov/Economist[614] August 27–29, 2016 42% 37% 7% 3% 5 1,119 ±4.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[204] August 25–29, 2016 40% 38% 6% 2% 2 1,404 ±3.0%
Suffolk University/USA Today[205] August 25–29, 2016 42% 35% 9% 4% 7 1,000 ±3.0%
Monmouth University[209] August 25–28, 2016 43% 36% 8% 2% 7 689 ±3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[210] August 22–28, 2016 41% 37% 11% 5% 4 24,104 ±1.0%
Morning Consult[213] August 24–26, 2016 39% 37% 8% 3% 2 2,007 ±2.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[214] August 22–25, 2016 39% 36% 7% 3% 3 1,154 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports[615] August 23–24, 2016 42% 38% 9% 2% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[215] August 20–24, 2016 39% 36% 7% 2% 3 1,049 ±2.9%
Quinnipiac University[217] August 18–24, 2016 45% 38% 10% 4% 7 1,498 ±2.5%
Gravis Marketing[616] August 22–23, 2016 42% 41% 4% 1% 1 1,493 ±2.5%
YouGov/Economist[219] August 19–23, 2016 42% 38% 6% 4% 4 1,080 ±4.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[221] August 18–22, 2016 41% 33% 7% 2% 8 1,115 ±3.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[224] August 15–21, 2016 43% 38% 11% 5% 5 17,451 ±1.1%
Morning Consult[226] August 16–20, 2016 39% 36% 8% 4% 3 2,001 ±2.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[229] August 13–17, 2016 39% 35% 7% 2% 4 1,049 ±2.8%
Rasmussen Reports[617] August 15–16, 2016 41% 39% 9% 3% 2 1,000 ±3.0%
YouGov/Economist[618] August 11–16, 2016 41% 35% 7% 3% 6 1,076 ±4.1%
Pew Research[619] August 9–16, 2016 41% 37% 10% 4% 4 1,567 ±2.8%
Normington, Petts & Associates[233] August 9–15, 2016 45% 37% 8% 4% 8 1,000 ±3.1%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[236] August 8–14, 2016 43% 37% 11% 4% 6 15,179 ±1.2%
Zogby Analytics[620] August 12–13, 2016 38% 36% 8% 5% 2 1,277 ±2.8%
Morning Consult[235] August 11–14, 2016 39% 33% 9% 4% 6 2,001 ±2.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[240] August 6–10, 2016 40% 35% 7% 3% 5 974 ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports[621] August 9–10, 2016 43% 40% 8% 2% 3 1,000 ±3.0%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[622] August 9, 2016 42% 37% 9% 3% 5 2,832 ±1.8%
YouGov/Economist[241] August 6–9, 2016 42% 36% 9% 2% 6 1,300 ±4.2%
Bloomberg Politics[243] August 5–8, 2016 44% 40% 9% 4% 4 749 ±3.6%
Princeton Survey[246] August 4–7, 2016 45% 39% 2% 1% 6 1,000 ±3.9%
Monmouth University[623] August 4–7, 2016 46% 34% 7% 2% 12 803 ±3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[248] August 1–7, 2016 44% 38% 10% 4% 6 11,480 ±1.2%
Morning Consult[251] August 4–5, 2016 41% 33% 9% 5% 8 2,001 ±2.0%
ABC News/Washington Post[252] August 1–4, 2016 45% 37% 8% 4% 8 1,002 ±3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[253] July 31 – August 4, 2016 42% 40% 6% 3% 2 1,154 ±3.0%
IBD/TPP[255] July 29 – August 4, 2016 39% 35% 12% 5% 4 851 ±3.4%
McClatchy/Marist[256] August 1–3, 2016 45% 31% 10% 6% 14 983 ±3.1%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[257] July 31 – August 3, 2016 43% 34% 10% 5% 9 800 ±3.5%
Ipsos/Reuters[258] July 30 – August 3, 2016 42% 38% 6% 2% 4 1,072 ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[624] August 1–2, 2016 44% 40% 6% 3% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
The Economist/YouGov[263] July 31 – August 1, 2016 41% 36% 8% 4% 5 1,300 ±4.0%
CNN/ORC[266] July 29–31, 2016 45% 37% 9% 5% 8 894 ±3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[268] July 25–31, 2016 43% 38% 9% 4% 5 12,742 ±1.2%
Public Policy Polling[270] July 29–30, 2016 46% 41% 6% 2% 5 1,276 ±2.7%
RABA Research[625] July 29, 2016 46% 31% 7% 2% 15 956 ±3.2%
Ipsos/Reuters[271] July 25–29, 2016 37% 37% 5% 1% Tied 1,788 ±2.4%
YouGov/Economist[275] July 23–24, 2016 40% 38% 5% 3% 2 1,300 ±4.5%
CNN/ORC[278] July 22–24, 2016 39% 44% 9% 3% 5 882 ±3.5%
University of Delaware[279] July 21–24, 2016 46% 42% 1% 1% 4 818 ±4.0%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[280] July 18–24, 2016 39% 41% 10% 5% 2 12,931 ±1.2%
RABA Research[626] July 22, 2016 39% 34% 8% 3% 5 909 ±3.3%
Echelon Insights[283] July 21–22, 2016 40% 39% 3% 2% 1 912 ±N/A%
Ipsos/Reuters[287] July 16–20, 2016 39% 35% 7% 3% 4 1,522 ±2.9%
YouGov/Economist[627] July 15–17, 2016 40% 37% 5% 4% 3 1,300 ±4.2%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[291] July 11–17, 2016 39% 40% 10% 5% 1 9,436 ±1.4%
Monmouth University[628] July 14–16, 2016 45% 43% 5% 1% 2 688 ±3.7%
Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[629] July 13–16, 2016 44% 41% 7% 2% 3 1,007 ±3.1%
CNN/ORC[293] July 13–16, 2016 42% 37% 13% 5% 5 872 ±3.5%
icitizen[294] July 11–14, 2016 39% 35% 9% 3% 4 1,000 ±N/A%
ABC News/Washington Post[295] July 11–14, 2016 42% 38% 8% 5% 4 1,003 ±3.5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[298] July 9–13, 2016 41% 35% 11% 6% 6 1,000 ±3.1%
The Economist/YouGov[300] July 9–11, 2016 40% 37% 5% 2% 3 1,300 ±4.2%
AP-GfK[630] July 7–11, 2016 40% 36% 6% 2% 4 837 ±3.3%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[301] July 4–10, 2016 40% 38% 11% 6% 2 7,869 ±1.4%
Raba Research[631] July 7–9, 2016 41% 29% 9% 2% 12 781 ±3.5%
McClatchy/Marist[303] July 5–9, 2016 40% 35% 10% 5% 5 1,249 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[304] July 2–6, 2016 42% 33% 6% 4% 9 1,345 ±2.8%
The Economist/YouGov[307] July 2–4, 2016 42% 37% 4% 3% 5 1,300 ±3.9%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[309] June 27 – July 3, 2016 41% 38% 9% 5% 3 10,072 ±1.3%
Suffolk University/USA Today[312] June 26–29, 2016 39% 35% 8% 3% 4 1,000 ±3.0%
Ipsos/Reuters[313] June 25–29, 2016 42% 31% 5% 4% 11 1,247 ±2.8%
IBD/TIPP[314] June 24–29, 2016 37% 36% 9% 5% 1 837 ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling[316] June 27–28, 2016 45% 41% 5% 2% 4 947 ±3.2%
Quinnipiac University[319] June 21–27, 2016 39% 37% 8% 4% 2 1,610 ±2.4%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[320] June 20–26, 2016 42% 36% 9% 5% 6 5,818 ±1.8%
ABC News/Washington Post[323] June 20–23, 2016 47% 37% 7% 3% 10 836 ±4.0%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[324] June 19–23, 2016 39% 38% 10% 6% 1 1,000 ±3.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[325] June 18–22, 2016 43% 34% 6% 5% 9 1,339 ±2.8%
CNN/ORC[330] June 16–19, 2016 42% 38% 9% 7% 4 891 ±3.5%
Monmouth University[331] June 15–19, 2016 42% 36% 9% 4% 6 803 ±3.5%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey[332] June 13–19, 2016 42% 38% 9% 5% 4 16,135 ±1.1%
Ipsos/Reuters[632] June 11–15, 2016 39% 29% 6% 4% 10 1,323 ±2.8%
NBC/Survey Monkey[339] June 6–12, 2016 42% 38% 9% 5% 4 10,604 ±1.3%
SurveyUSA[633] June 8, 2016 39% 36% 6% 4% 3 1,408 ±2.7%
Zogby[634] May 30 – June 5, 2016 40% 34% 6% 2% 6 837 ±3.5%
NBC News[635] May 30 – June 5, 2016 39% 40% 9% 4% 1 9,240 ±1.4%
Quinnipiac University[636] May 24–30, 2016 40% 38% 5% 3% 2 1,561 ±2.5%

Five-way race

Poll source Date Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Evan McMullin
Independent
Leading by
(points)
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Saint Leo University[576] October 22–26, 2016 42% 31% 6% 1% 5% 11 1,050 ±%
Public Policy Polling[142] September 27–28, 2016 44% 40% 6% 1% 2% 4 933 ±3.2%
Echelon Insights[145] September 26–27, 2016 44% 39% 6% 2% 1% 5 1,833
Public Policy Polling[208] August 26–28, 2016 42% 37% 6% 4% 1% 5 881 ±3.3%

Post election analysis

BBC News questioned whether polling should be abandoned due to its abject failure.[1] Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out".[2] He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters.[2] Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[2]

A particular case was the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not.[637] The poll’s findings caused skepticism, especially from Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it. Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they’re 100 percent sure and stated that if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, [let's] do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll."[638] The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."[639]

See also

General election polling

Democratic primary polling

Republican primary polling

After the election

References

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