Indiana Republican primary, 2016

Last updated on 11 August 2017

The 2016 Indiana Republican primary was held on May 3 in the U.S. state of Indiana as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Democratic Party held their own Indiana primary on the same day, which was won by Bernie Sanders. Other primaries were not scheduled for that day.

Donald Trump Pentagon 2017.jpg
Donald Trump Pentagon 2017.jpg
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Governor John Kasich.jpg
Governor John Kasich.jpg
Indiana Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Indiana Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg


Pre-primary strategies

By late April, Cruz and Kasich had both been eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates, but they still had a chance to accumulate enough delegates to force a contested convention in Cleveland. Realizing this, Cruz and Kasich attempted to focus their efforts in different states, with Cruz challenging Trump head-to-head in Indiana and Kasich challenging Trump head-to-head in Oregon and New Mexico. However, the alliance was tenuous at best, with Kasich telling voters in Indiana the next day to still vote for him and Cruz downplaying the alliance later in the week; it also met with disapproval from 58% of Indiana voters.[1][2][3]

Final attempts to stop Trump

Indiana was seen as the final state for the "Stop Trump" movement. Indiana, whose delegates were awarded winner-take all statewide and by congressional district, was seen as essential to denying Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.[4] Following the Acela primaries, Cruz attempted to bolster his chances by announcing that, if nominated, he would name Fiorina as his running mate.[5] Fiorina had served as a Cruz campaign surrogate since March after suspending her own presidential campaign in February and Cruz hoped that Fiorina could help his campaign in Indiana and her home state of California.[6] On April 29, 2016, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana announced that he would vote for Cruz in the primary election.[7] However, Cruz's posturing and endorsements proved to be insufficient, as Trump handily won Indiana with 53% of the vote, despite being outspent by a margin of more than 4-1.[8] Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race.

Trump emerges as Republican nominee

Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race. As a result, Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman, tweeted that Trump was the presumptive nominee in the GOP. The next day, Kasich also suspended his campaign, leaving Trump as the only candidate in the race. Despite his endorsement of Cruz, Mike Pence went on to become Trump's running mate.

Opinion polling

List of polls
America Symbol.svg Donald Trump
Primary date
May 3, 2016
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results May 3, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Ben Carson 0.80%, Jeb Bush 0.59%, Marco Rubio 0.47%, Rand Paul 0.39%, Chris Christie 0.16%, Carly Fiorina 0.13%
Gravis Marketing[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 379

April 28–29, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 19%

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 400

April 27–28, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 6%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[11]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 645

April 26–28, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 4%

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

April 13–27, 2016 Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
John Kasich
Undecided 13%
Clout Research[13]

Margin of error: ±4.75%
Sample size: 423

April 27, 2016 Donald Trump 37.1% Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 11.4%
CBS News/YouGov[14]

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 548

April 20–22, 2016 Donald Trump 40% Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 5%
Fox News[15]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 602

April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 7%, None 2%
POS/Howey Politics Indiana/WTHR Channel[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 507

April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Undecided 7%, Other 2%

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 670

December 2–9, 2015 Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson 16%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%


Trump won Indiana by a considerable margin statewide. He won nearly all regions of the state except for several counties in northeast Indiana containing the Fort Wayne and Elkhart areas, which Cruz won.


  1. ^ Schwartz, Ian (April 25, 2016). "Kasich on Indiana: 'I Never Told People Not To Vote For Me, They Ought To Vote For Me' | Video". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 4, 2016.
  2. ^ Scott, Eugene (April 28, 2016). "Ted Cruz on John Kasich: 'There is no alliance'". CNN. Retrieved April 29, 2016.
  3. ^ Mack, Justin L. (May 2, 2016). "Poll: Reversal of fortune, Donald Trump tops Ted Cruz in Indiana". Retrieved May 4, 2016.
  4. ^ "Ted Cruz and John Kasich team up in deal to stop Trump". The Guardian. April 24, 2016. Retrieved April 24, 2016.
  5. ^ "Ted Cruz Will Name Carly Fiorina As His Vice Presidential Pick". NPR.
  6. ^ Sullivan, Sean; Costa, Robert (April 27, 2016). "Cruz announces Carly Fiorina as his running mate". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 27, 2016.
  7. ^ "Indiana governor Pence endorses Cruz for president". MSN. Reuters. April 21, 2016. Retrieved May 4, 2016.
  8. ^ Collinson, Stephen (May 3, 2016). "CNN projects Donald Trump wins Indiana, on cusp of GOP nomination". CNN. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  9. ^ "Current Indiana Polling". Gravis Marketing. Retrieved 2 May 2016.
  10. ^ "2016 Indiana Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved 30 April 2016.
  11. ^ Mark Murray. "Donald Trump Leads Cruz by 15 Points in Crucial Indiana Race". NBC News. Retrieved May 1, 2016.
  12. ^ "Cruz Ahead in Indiana" (PDF). Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. Retrieved 30 April 2016.
  13. ^ "Survey of Likely GOP Primary Election Voters in Indiana" (PDF). Clout. Retrieved 28 April 2016.
  14. ^ "Trump, Clinton have the edge in Pennsylvania, Indiana". YouGov. Retrieved 25 April 2016.
  15. ^ "Fox News Poll: Indiana presidential primary". Shaw & Company Research. Retrieved 23 April 2016.
  16. ^ "EXCLUSIVE WTHR/HPI Poll: Trump, Clinton have small leads in Indiana, overall tight race". Howey Politics Indiana. Retrieved 23 April 2016.

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