Wins Above Replacement or Wins Above Replacement Player, commonly abbreviated to WAR or WARP, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to his team". A player's WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player: a player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort.
Individual WAR values are calculated from the number and success rate of on-field actions by a player (in batting, baserunning, fielding, and pitching), with higher values reflecting larger contributions to a team's success. WAR value also depends on what position a player plays, with more value going to weaker hitting positions like catcher than positions with strong hitting such as first base. A high WAR value built up by a player reflects successful performance, a large quantity of playing time, or both.
For example, Fangraphs rates Clayton Kershaw's 2014 regular season performance at 7.2 WAR, suggesting his team won roughly seven more games than would be expected if his innings had been pitched by a replacement level player. Kershaw achieved this high WAR total by pitching many innings while maintaining a high rate of strikeouts and low rates of home runs and walks.
The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching. Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure the effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per-plate appearance or per-inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team.
Additional runs contributed to a team lead to additional wins, with 10 runs estimated to be equal to roughly one win. Therefore, a 1.0 WAR value for a player signifies a contribution of roughly 10 more runs than a replacement-level player, over a specified period of time. A replacement-level player is defined by Fangraphs as contributing 17.5 runs fewer than a player of league-average performance, over 600 plate appearances. Therefore, a 1.0 WAR player has contributed an estimated -7.5 runs relative to average over the same number of plate appearances, a 2.0 WAR player has contributed +2.5 runs, and a 5.0 WAR player has contributed +32.5 runs.
For an individual player, WAR values may be calculated for single seasons or parts of seasons, for several seasons, or across the whole career of the player. Collective WAR values for multiple players may also be estimated, for example to determine the contribution a team receives from its outfielders, its relief pitchers or from specific positions such as catcher. It is also possible to extrapolate a future WAR value from a player's past performance data.
No clearly established formula exists for WAR. Sources that provide the statistic calculate it differently. These include Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs. All of these sources publish the method they use to calculate WAR, and all use similar basic principles to do so. The version published by Baseball Prospectus is named WARP, that by Baseball Reference is named bWAR or rWAR ("r" derives from Rally or RallyMonkey, a nickname for Sean Smith, who implemented that site's version of the statistic) and that for Fangraphs is named fWAR. Compared to rWAR, the calculation of fWAR places greater emphasis on peripheral statistics.
WAR values are scaled equally for pitchers and batters; that is, pitchers and position players will have roughly the same WAR if their contribution to their team is deemed similar. However, the values are calculated differently for pitchers and position players: position players are evaluated using statistics for fielding and hitting, while pitchers are evaluated using statistics related to the opposing batters' hits, walks, and strikeouts in Fangraphs' version and runs allowed per 9 innings with a team defense adjustment for Baseball Reference's version. Because the independent WAR frameworks are calculated differently, they do not have the same scale and cannot be used interchangeably in an analytical context.
Baseball Reference uses six components to calculate WAR for position players: The components are batting runs, baserunning runs, runs added or lost due to grounding into double plays in double play situations, fielding runs, positional adjustment runs, and replacement level runs (based on playing time). The first five factors are compared to league average, so a value of 0 represents an average player.
The term may be calculated from the first five factors, and the other term from the remaining factor.
Here, "AB" is the number of at bats, "BB" the number of base on balls ("uBB" is unintentional base on balls and "IBB" is intentional base on balls), HBP the number of times hit by pitch, "SF" the number of sacrifice flies, "SH" the number of sacrifice hits, "1B" the number of singles, "2B" the number of doubles, "3B" the number of triples, "HR" the number of home runs, "SB" the number of stolen bases, and "CS" the number of caught stealing. to represent weighting coefficients. Baseball Reference eliminates pitcher batting results from its data, computes linear weights and wOBA coefficients for each league, then scales the values for each league and season.
The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the player's position: +10.0 for a catcher, −10 for a first baseman, +3.0 for a second baseman, +2.0 for a third baseman, +7.5 for a shortstop, −7.5 for a left fielder, +2.5 for a center fielder, −7.5 for a right fielder, and −15.0 for a designated hitter. These values are set assuming 1,350 innings played (150 games of 9 innings). A player's positional adjustment is the sum of the positional adjustment for each position played by the player scaled to the number of games played by the player at that position, normalized to 1,350 innings.
The Fangraphs formula for position players involves offense, defense, and base running. These are measured using weighted Runs Above Average, Ultimate zone rating (UZR), and Ultimate base running (UBR), respectively. These values are adjusted using park factors, and a positional adjustment is applied, resulting in a player's "value added above league average". To this is added a scaled value to reflect the player's value compared to a replacement-level player, which is assumed to be 20 runs below average per 600 plate appearances. All four values are measured in runs.
The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the players position: +12.5 for a catcher, −12.5 for a first baseman, +2.5 for a second or third baseman, +7.5 for a shortstop, −7.5 for a left fielder, +2.5 for a center fielder, −7.5 for a right fielder, and −17.5 for a designated hitter. These values are scaled to the number of games played by the player at each position.
Baseball Reference uses two components to calculate WAR for pitchers: Runs Allowed (both earned and unearned) and Innings Pitched. These statistics are then used in a number of further calculations to better contextualize the numbers.
In 2009, Dave Cameron stated that fWAR does an "impressive job of projecting wins and losses". He found that a team's projected record based on fWAR and that team's actual record has a strong correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.83), and that every team was within two standard deviations (σ=6.4 wins).
In 2012, Glenn DuPaul conducted a regression analysis comparing the cumulative rWAR of five randomly selected teams per season (from 1996 to 2011) against those teams' realized win totals for those seasons. He found that the two were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91, and that 83% of the variance in wins was explained by fWAR (R2=0.83). The standard deviation was 2.91 wins. The regression equation was:
which was close to the expected equation:
in which a team of replacement-level players is expected to have a .320 winning percentage, or 52 wins in a 162-game season.
To test fWAR as a predictive tool, DuPaul executed a regression between a team's cumulative player WAR from the previous year to the team's realized wins for that year. The resultant regression equation was:
which has a statistically significant correlation of 0.59, meaning that 35% (the square of 0.59) of the variance in team wins could be accounted for by the cumulative fWAR of its players from the previous season.
Bill James states that there is a bias favoring players from earlier eras because there was greater variance in skill levels at the time, so "the best players were further from the average than they are now". That is, in modern baseball, it is more difficult for a player to exceed the abilities of his peers than it was in the 1800s and the dead-ball and live-ball eras of the 1900s.
Nearing the end of the 2012 Major League Baseball season and afterward, there was much debate about which player should win the Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player Award for the American League. The two candidates considered by most writers were Miguel Cabrera, who won the Triple Crown, and Mike Trout, who led Major League Baseball in WAR. The debate focused on the use of traditional baseball statistics, such as RBIs and home runs, and sabermetric statistics such as WAR.
Cabrera led the American League in batting average, home runs, and RBIs, but Trout was considered a more complete player by some. Relative to the average player, Cabrera contributed an extra 53.1 runs through batting, but -8.2 through defense and -2.9 through baserunning, while Trout contributed 50.1 batting runs, 13.0 defensive runs, and 12.0 baserunning runs. Cabrera, the only one of the two players whose team entered the postseason, would win the award in a landslide, with 22 of 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers' Association of America. He and Trout posted similar seasons in 2013; Cabrera again won the MVP. Dave Cameron disagreed, in a fangraphs.com article:
Some sabermetricians "have been distancing themselves from the importance of single-season WAR values" because some of the defensive metrics incorporated into WAR calculations have significant variability. For example, during the 2012 season, the Toronto Blue Jays employed an infield shift against some left-handed batters, such as David Ortiz or Carlos Peña, in which third baseman Brett Lawrie would be assigned to shallow right field. This resulted in a very high Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) total for Lawrie, and hence a high rWAR, which uses DRS as a component. Ben Jedlovec, an analyst for DRS creator Baseball Info Solutions, said that Lawrie was "making plays in places where very few third basemen are making those plays" because of the "very optimal positioning by the Blue Jays". Another fielding metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), uses the DRS data but excludes runs saved as a result of a shift.
Jay Jaffe, a writer for Baseball Prospectus and a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, adapted WAR for a statistic he developed in 2004 called "Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score," or JAWS. The metric averages a player's career WAR with their seven-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive years). The final number is then used to measure the player's worthiness of being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by comparing it to the average JAWS of Hall of Fame players at that position. Baseball Reference's explanation of JAWS says, "The stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness."
For example, as of August 5, 2013, third baseman Adrián Beltré has accumulated 68.8 career WAR, and 44.9 WAR from his best seven seasons combined. Averaged together, these numbers give Beltré a JAWS of 56.8, which ranks slightly higher than the average JAWS of 55.0 for the 13 third basemen currently in the Hall of Fame. By JAWS' measure, Beltré is a worthy candidate for the Hall of Fame.
The 2000 NBA draft was held on June 28, 2000 at the Target Center in Minneapolis. It was the last draft held at the home arena of an NBA team until 2011; the following and subsequent drafts (through 2010) all took place at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City (though Madison Square Garden itself is the home of the New York Knicks, they do not play in the theater). As of 2019, it is also the last NBA draft where a college senior would be selected as the top selection of the draft.
The 2000 draft is considered one of the worst in NBA history. To date, only top pick Kenyon Martin, first-rounder Jamaal Magloire (19th pick overall), and second-rounder Michael Redd (43rd pick overall) have played in the NBA All-Star Game (each only making the team one time, in 2004). In addition, only one player made an All-NBA Team (Redd, whose sole appearance was on the third team in 2004); only three players in the draft class have won a major end-of-season award (Hedo Türkoğlu was named Most Improved Player in 2008, Mike Miller won both the NBA Rookie of the Year and NBA Sixth Man of the Year awards in 2001 and 2006 respectively, and Jamal Crawford was named 3x NBA Sixth Man of the Year in 2010, 2014 and 2016); and few draft selections have enjoyed extended careers in the NBA.
Sports Illustrated named this entire draft class (as opposed to individual players) the 6th biggest bust of the modern era – making it the only draft class among the site's top 20 list. Just before the 2009 draft, ESPN.com columnist David Schoenfield wrote a piece in which he rated all of the drafts since the institution of the draft lottery in 1985, and the only draft which he gave the lowest possible grade of "F" was the 2000 draft. Using the WARP (wins above replacement player) metric, the 2000 NBA draft class collectively produced at a rate of 17.3 wins worse than a group of "average replacement players", effectively making 2000 the only draft class in NBA history to leave the NBA talent pool worse off than it had been prior to the given year's rookie draft.Adrián Beltré
Adrián Beltré Pérez (born April 7, 1979) is a Dominican former professional baseball third baseman. Originally signed as an amateur free agent, he made his Major League Baseball (MLB) debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1998 at age 19. He subsequently played for the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, and Texas Rangers. He batted and threw right-handed. He became one of the most all-around accomplished players in history; he ranks 13th in defensive Wins Above Replacement and was the fourth third baseman to reach 400 home runs and 1,500 runs batted in. Beltré was a four-time selection for the Silver Slugger Award and MLB All-Star Game, and a five-time winner of the Rawlings Gold Glove Award.
Beltré is the all-time hits leader among foreign-born players. The fifth major leaguer to hit at least 100 home runs for three teams, he hit at least 20 home runs in 12 seasons, and in five, drove in at least 100 runs. He hit a major league-leading 48 home runs while playing for the Dodgers in 2004, was the team MVP of the Red Sox in 2010, and tied for the major league lead in hits in 2013 while playing for the Rangers. Sharing the record as one of four major leaguers to hit for the cycle three times, Beltré was the only one to hit three at the same stadium, Globe Life Park in Arlington. He was the sixth player with a three-home-run game in both the regular season and postseason, and the second with both a three-home-run game and cycle in the same week. On July 30, 2017, he became the 31st player in MLB history to reach 3,000 hits, and the first from the Dominican Republic.When he retired, Beltré ranked in the top ten all-time at his position in games played, assists, putouts, and double plays. Beltré was the second-to-last active player to have played in the 1990s; at his retirement, former Rangers teammate Bartolo Colón became the last.Anthony Rendon
Anthony Michael Rendon (, born June 6, 1990) is an American baseball third baseman for the Washington Nationals of Major League Baseball (MLB). Rendon played college baseball for the Rice University Owls, where he won the 2010 Dick Howser Trophy. Rendon was selected sixth overall in the 2011 Major League Baseball draft by the Nationals.Bobby Grich
Robert Anthony Grich (born January 15, 1949) is an American former professional baseball second baseman who played for the Baltimore Orioles (1970–1976) and California Angels (1977–1986) of Major League Baseball (MLB). He currently works in the Angels' front office.Carlos Gómez
Carlos Argelis Gómez Peña, nicknamed Go-Go, (born December 4, 1985) is a Dominican professional baseball outfielder who is a free agent. He previously played for the New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays. Gómez is a two-time MLB All-Star and a Gold Glove Award winner.Edgardo Alfonzo
Edgardo Antonio Alfonzo (born November 8, 1973), nicknamed Fonzie, is a former Major League Baseball infielder who is currently the manager of the Brooklyn Cyclones. Alfonzo spent the majority of his 12-year playing career with the New York Mets, with whom he played in the 2000 World Series. Alfonzo's 29.7 wins above replacement (WAR) as a Met place him as the seventh most valuable player in franchise history.Houston Astros award winners and league leaders
This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Houston Astros professional baseball team.Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score
The Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score, commonly abbreviated JAWS, is a sabermetric baseball statistic developed to evaluate the strength of a player's career and merit for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Created by averaging a player's career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR, its "stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness."JAWS was devised in 2004 by Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus and the acronym "JAWS" was introduced by Jaffe the following year. Early in its history, the influence of JAWS was somewhat limited by the paywall of Baseball Prospectus.In November 2012, Baseball-Reference.com added JAWS values to every player page after Jaffe left Baseball-Reference competitor Baseball Prospectus for Sports Illustrated. In 2014, Will Leitch called JAWS "the definitive statistical measure" in evaluating Hall of Fame cases. In 2016, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs described JAWS as "the standard-bearer for Hall of Fame analysis over the last decade."Critics of the stat point out that it does not account for postseason performance or awards in measuring players' Hall of Fame worthiness. Further, the metric has been accused of undervaluing individual outstanding seasons.As of 2014, the player with the highest JAWS score all-time was Babe Ruth and the player with the worst JAWS score in the Baseball Hall of Fame was Tommy McCarthy. As of 2017, Bobby Grich had the best JAWS score of any eligible position player not in the Hall of Fame.José Rijo
José Antonio Rijo Abreu (born May 13, 1965) is a Dominican former pitcher in Major League Baseball (MLB) who spent the majority of his career with the Cincinnati Reds (1988–1995 and 2001–2002). Originally signed by the New York Yankees as an amateur free agent in 1980, Rijo made his MLB debut with them in 1984, and also played in MLB for the Oakland Athletics. He pitched and batted right-handed, stood 6 feet 1 inch (1.85 m) tall, and weighed 200 pounds (91 kg) during his playing career.The most notable success of Rijo's career came as a member of the Reds, where each year as a starting pitcher from 1988−1993, he posted an earned run average (ERA) below 3.00. He won a World Series title in 1990 and that event's Most Valuable Player Award (MVP). In 1993, he was the National League (NL) leader in strikeouts and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 10.6. He was named to the All-Star Game in 1994.
Elbow injuries sidelined Rijo for most of the 1995 season, and from 1996−2000, prevented him from appearing in the major leagues in spite of all his efforts. In 2001, he returned to the major leagues as a relief pitcher with the Reds. By doing so, he became the first player to appear in a game after receiving a Baseball Hall of Fame vote since Minnie Miñoso in 1976. As a result, Rijo was the Tony Conigliaro Award winner in 2002. He again retired after that season, and was elected to the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame in 2005.Killer B's (Houston Astros)
The Killer B's were players on the Houston Astros whose names started with the letter B.List of Detroit Tigers team records
This is a list of Detroit Tigers single-season, career, and other team records.Los Angeles Angels award winners and league leaders
This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Los Angeles Angels professional baseball team.Mike Mussina
Michael Cole Mussina (born December 8, 1968), nicknamed Moose, is an American former baseball starting pitcher who played 18 seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Baltimore Orioles (1991–2000) and the New York Yankees (2001–2008). In 2019, he was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in his sixth year of eligibility.
Mussina spent his entire career in the American League East, won at least 11 games in 17 consecutive seasons – an American League record – and recorded a career .638 winning percentage. Among pitchers, he ranks 33rd in all-time wins (270), 33rd in games started (535), 66th in innings pitched (3,562.2), 19th in strikeouts (2,813), and 23rd all-time in pitching Wins Above Replacement (82.9). A five-time All-Star and seven-time Gold Glove winner, Mussina's consistency resulted in six top-five finishes in the voting for his league's Cy Young Award.Mike Trout
Michael Nelson Trout (born August 7, 1991) is an American professional baseball center fielder for the Los Angeles Angels of Major League Baseball (MLB). Trout is a eight-time MLB All-Star, received the American League (AL) Most Valuable Player (MVP) award in 2014 and 2016 (finishing second in the 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2018 votes), and is a six-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award. He is nicknamed "The Millville Meteor."
The Angels selected Trout in the first round of the 2009 MLB draft. He made a brief major league appearance in 2011 before becoming a regular player for the Angels the subsequent season, and won the 2012 AL Rookie of the Year Award unanimously.
Trout's athleticism on the field has received praise from both the mainstream media and sabermetricians. He is regarded as one of the most outstanding young players in the history of baseball, as well as one of the best current players in all of MLB. Trout led the American League in wins above replacement (WAR) in each of his first five full seasons (according to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.com).Trout has led the American League in runs (2012–14, 2016) and times on base (2013, 2015–16, 2018) four times. As of 2018, he led all active major league ballplayers in career slugging percentage (.573), on base plus slugging (.990), and stolen base percentage (84.75%), and was second in career on base percentage (.416). In 2019, he signed a 12-year, $426 million contract with the Angels, the richest contract in the history of North American sports.Mike Tyson (baseball)
Michael Ray Tyson (January 13, 1950), is a former Major League Baseball second baseman and shortstop. He played in the majors from 1972 to 1981 for the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.
Tyson was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 3rd round of the 1970 Major League Baseball Draft and made his MLB debut with St. Louis on September 5, 1972. He was a regular in the Cardinals' lineup until the end of the 1979 season when he was traded to the Cubs for relief pitcher Donnie Moore.
An underrated defensive shortstop, Tyson finished in the top ten in the National League in WAR (wins above replacement) in 1974 and 1977. His best offensive season came in the injury-shortened 1976 campaign, when he compiled career highs with a .286 batting average and a .445 slugging percentage while missing about half the season.
Tyson was released by the Cubs on March 15, 1982, at which point he retired from baseball. His lifetime batting average was .241.Run batted in
A run batted in (RBI), plural runs batted in (RBI or RBIs), is a statistic in baseball and softball that credits a batter for making a play that allows a run to be scored (except in certain situations such as when an error is made on the play). For example, if the batter bats a base hit, then another player on a higher base can head home to score a run, and the batter gets credited with batting in that run.
Before the 1920 Major League Baseball season, runs batted in were not an official baseball statistic. Nevertheless, the RBI statistic was tabulated—unofficially—from 1907 through 1919 by baseball writer Ernie Lanigan, according to the Society for American Baseball Research.Common nicknames for an RBI include "ribby" (or "ribbie"), "rib", and "ribeye". The plural of RBI is generally "RBIs", although some commentators use "RBI" as both singular and plural, as it can also stand for "runs batted in".WOBA
In baseball, wOBA (/wʌ-bɑː/, or weighted on-base average) is a statistic, based on linear weights, designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. It is formed from taking the observed run values of various offensive events, dividing by a player's plate appearances, and scaling the result to be on the same scale as on-base percentage. Unlike statistics like OPS, wOBA attempts to assign the proper value for each type of hitting event. It was created by Tom Tango and his coauthors for The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball.