Two-party-preferred vote

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP) is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 45%, Labor 55%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

The TPP assumes a two-party system, i.e. that after distribution of votes from less successful candidates, the two remaining candidates will be from the two major parties. However, in some electorates this is not the case. The two-candidate-preferred vote (TCP) is the result after preferences have been distributed, using instant-runoff voting, to the final two candidates, regardless of which party the candidates represent. For electorates where the two candidates are from the major parties, the TCP is also the TPP. For electorates where these two candidates are not both from the major parties, preferences are notionally distributed to the two major parties to determine the TPP. In this case the TPP differs from the TCP, and is not informative. TPP results above seat-level, such as a national or statewide TPP, are also informative only and have no direct effect on the election outcome.

The full allocation of preferences under instant-runoff voting is used in the lower houses of the Federal, Queensland, Victorian, Western Australian, South Australian, and Northern Territory parliaments, as well as the upper house of Tasmania. The New South Wales lower house uses optional-preference instant runoff voting – with some votes giving limited or no preferences, TPP/TCP is not as meaningful. TPP/TCP does not occur in the Tasmanian lower house or the Australian Capital Territory due to a different system altogether, the Hare–Clark proportional voting system. Aside from Tasmania, TPP/TCP is not used in any other upper houses in Australia, with most using the group ticket single transferable proportional voting system.[1]

IRV counting flowchart
Instant-runoff voting method. TPP/TCP vote is calculated when two candidates remain.

History

Australia originally used first-past-the-post voting as used by the House of Commons of the United Kingdom. Federal election full-preference instant-runoff voting has been in existence since its introduction by the government after the 1918 Swan by-election. Candidates from the Australian Labor Party, the Nationalist Party government (predecessor to the United Australia Party and Liberal Party of Australia), and the emerging National Party of Australia (then Country Party) all received around a third of the vote, however Labor remained a few percent in front of both other candidates to win the seat. The system has allowed the two non-Labor parties to compete in many seats without splitting the conservative vote in three-cornered-contests. Even in landslide conservative election wins such as 1975 or 1996, Labor had the largest primary vote. The Coalition now comprises four parties: the Liberal Party of Australia except Queensland and the Northern Territory, the National Party of Australia in New South Wales and Victoria, the Liberal National Party of Queensland, and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. It is increasingly uncommon for seats to be contested by more than one Coalition candidate, by 2010 only three seats were contested by more than one Coalition candidate, all in New South Wales. Four seats were contested by the non-Coalition National Party of Western Australia, none were contested by the non-Coalition National Party of South Australia, and neither are automatically part of the Coalition TPP. Preferences have also been of significant relevance to the DLP, the Democrats, One Nation, the Greens, and independents.

Not distributing preferences was historically common in seats where a candidate received over 50 percent of the primary vote. Federal seat and national TPP results have only been produced as far back as 1937, though it was not uncommon in the next few decades for major parties at federal elections to not field a candidate in a few "safe" seats, but since 1972, all seats at federal elections have been contested by the major parties. Full preference distributions have occurred in all seats since 1983.[2]

South Australian state elections have boundaries strategically redrawn before each election with a fairness aim based on the prior election TPP vote, the only state to do so. The culmination of the historical state lower house seat malapportionment known as the Playmander eventually saw it legislated after 1989 that the Electoral Commission of South Australia redraw boundaries after each election with the objective of the party that receives over 50 percent of the TPP vote at each forthcoming election forms government. Nationally in 1983/84, minor gerrymandering by incumbent federal governments was legislated against with the formation of the independent Commonwealth statutory authority, the Australian Electoral Commission.[3]

Procedure

Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat, the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. Whilst every seat has a TCP result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a TPP result. In a TCP contest between Labor and the NSW/Vic Nationals and without a Liberal candidate, this is also considered a TPP, with the Nationals in these states considered a de facto major party within the Liberal/National Coalition. In seats where the major parties do not come first and second, differing TPP and TCP results are returned. When only one of two major parties contest a seat, such as at some by-elections, only a TCP result is produced. Swings in Australian parliaments are more commonly associated with the TPP vote. At the 2013 federal election, 11 of 150 seats returned differing TPP and TCP figures ("non-classic seats"), indicating a considerable two-party system.[4]

The tallying of seat TPP results gives a statewide and/or national TPP vote. Non-classic seats have votes redistributed for informational purposes to the major parties so that every seat has a TPP result. Whilst the TCP is the determining factor in deciding which candidate wins a seat, the overall election TPP is statistical and indicative only, as swings in seats are not uniform, and a varying range of factors can influence marginal seat wins with single-member electorates. Several federal elections since 1937 have seen a government elected with a minority of the TPP vote: 1940 (49.7%), 1954 (49.3%), 1961 (49.5%), 1969 (49.8%), 1990 (49.9%) and 1998 (49.0%).

As the TPP vote rather than the primary vote is a better indicator of who is in front with seats won and lost on a preferential basis, Australian opinion polls survey voter intention with a TPP always produced. However, these TPP figures tend to be calculated based on preference flows at the prior election rather than asked at the time of polling. There difference between the two is usually within the margin of error (usually +/– 3 percentage points). History has shown that prior election preference flows are more reliable.[5]

Analysis

After the count has taken place, it is possible to analyze the ultimate preference flows for votes cast for the parties that were ultimately excluded from the TPP calculation, in order to determine if the composite flow would have significantly affected the final result. Such an exercise is shown for the 2017 by-election in Bennelong:

2017 Bennelong by-election - Preference Flow Data[6]
Party Candidate First preferences % preference to
Votes % Liberal Labor
  Greens Justin Alick 5,688 6.8 19.7 80.3
  Conservatives Joram Richa 3,609 4.3 86.5 13.5
  Christian Democrats Gui Dong Cao 2,626 3.1 72.4 27.6
  Science James Jansson 1,041 1.2 39.4 60.6
  Sustainable Australia Wesley Folitarik 995 1.2 48.9 51.1
  Affordable Housing Anthony Ziebell 741 0.9 44.7 55.3
  Liberty Alliance Tony Robinson 719 0.9 79.0 21.0
  Progressives Chris Golding 425 0.5 42.1 57.9
  People’s Party James Platter 186 0.2 48.9 51.1
  Non-Custodial Parents Anthony Fels 132 0.2 56.1 43.9
Totals 16,162 19.2 51.2 48.8

Examples

Federal, Swan 1918

1918 Swan by-election: Division of Swan, Western Australia
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labor Edwin Corboy 6,540 34.4 N/A
Country Basil Murray 5,975 31.4 N/A
Nationalist William Hedges 5,635 29.6 N/A
Independent William Watson 884 4.6 N/A
Turnout 19,213 64.3%
Labor gain from Nationalist Swing N/A

The result of the 1918 Swan by-election, the first-past-the-post election which caused the government of the day to introduce full-preference instant-runoff voting, under which Labor would have been easily defeated. Labor won the seat, and their majority was 3.0 points (34.4 minus 31.4). No swings are available as the Nationalists retained the seat unopposed at the previous election.

Federal, Adelaide 2004

2004 Australian federal election: Division of Adelaide, South Australia
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Liberal Trish Worth 38,530 45.29 +0.82
Labor Kate Ellis 35,666 41.92 +5.50
Greens Jake Bugden 6,794 7.99 +2.02
Family First Peter G Robins 1,753 2.06 +2.06
Democrats Richard Pascoe 1,355 1.59 –9.30
Independent Amanda Barlow 978 1.15 +1.15
Total formal votes 85,076 95.60 +0.66
Informal votes 3,920 4.40 –0.66
Turnout 88,996 93.62 –1.09
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Kate Ellis 43,671 51.33 +1.95
Liberal Trish Worth 41,405 48.67 –1.95
Labor gain from Liberal Swing +1.95

It can be seen that the Liberal candidate had a primary vote lead over the Labor candidate. In a first-past-the-post vote, the Liberals would have retained the seat, and their majority would be said to be 3.4 points (45.3 minus 41.9).

However, under full-preference instant-runoff voting, the votes of all the minor candidates were distributed as follows:

2nd count: Barlow 978 votes distributed
Party Candidate Added votes % Votes %
Liberal Trish Worth 172 17.6 38,702 45.5
Labor Kate Ellis 206 21.1 35,872 42.2
Greens Jake Bugden 365 37.3 7,159 8.4
Family First Peter G Robins 96 9.8 1,849 2.2
Democrats Richard Pascoe 139 14.2 1,494 1.8
Total 978 85,076
3rd count: Democrats 1,494 votes distributed
Party Candidate Added votes % Votes %
Liberal Trish Worth 343 23.0 39,045 45.9
Labor Kate Ellis 494 33.1 36,366 42.8
Greens Jake Bugden 560 37.5 7,719 9.1
Family First Peter G Robins 97 6.5 1,946 2.3
Total 1,494 85,076
4th count: Family First 1,946 votes distributed
Party Candidate Added votes % Votes %
Liberal Trish Worth 1,098 56.4 40,143 47.2
Labor Kate Ellis 377 19.4 36,743 43.2
Greens Jake Bugden 471 24.2 8,190 9.6
Total 1,946 85,076
5th count: Greens 8,190 votes distributed – final TPP/TCP
Party Candidate Added votes % Votes %
Labor Kate Ellis 6,928 84.6 43,671 51.3
Liberal Trish Worth 1,262 15.4 41,405 48.7
Total 8,190 85,076 1.3

The process of allocating the votes can be more succinctly shown thus:

2004 Australian federal election: Division of Adelaide, South Australia
Allocation of votes by count
Party Candidate Count
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
  Labor Kate Ellis 35,666 206 494 377 6,928 43,671
  Liberal Trish Worth 38,530 172 343 1,098 1,262 41,405
  Greens Jake Bugden 6,794 365 560 471 (8,190)  
  Family First Peter G Robins 1,753 96 97 (1,946)    
  Democrats Richard Pascoe 1,355 139 (1,494)      
  Independent Amanda Barlow 978 (978)        

Thus, Labor defeated the Liberals, with 85 percent of Green and Green-preferenced voters preferencing Labor on the last distribution. Labor's TPP/TCP vote was 51.3 percent, a TPP/TCP majority of 1.3 points, and a TPP/TCP swing of 1.9 points compared with the previous election.

South Australia, Frome 2009

2009 Frome state by-election: Electoral district of Frome, South Australia[7][8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Liberal Terry Boylan 7,576 39.24 –8.86
Labor John Rohde 5,041 26.11 –14.93
Independent Geoff Brock 4,557 23.60 +23.60
National Neville Wilson 1,267 6.56 +6.56
Greens Joy O'Brien 734 3.80 +0.06
One Nation Peter Fitzpatrick 134 0.69 +0.69
Total formal votes 19,309 97.12 +0.21
Informal votes 573 2.88 –0.21
Turnout 19,882 89.79 –4.44
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Terry Boylan 9,976 51.67 –1.74
Labor John Rohde 9,333 48.33 +1.74
Two-candidate-preferred result
Independent Geoff Brock 9,987 51.72 +51.72
Liberal Terry Boylan 9,322 48.28 –5.13
Independent gain from Liberal Swing N/A

The 2009 Frome by-election was closely contested, with the result being uncertain for over a week.[9][10][11] Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith claimed victory on behalf of the party.[12][13][14] The result hinged on the performance of Brock against Labor in the competition for second place. Brock polled best in the Port Pirie area, and received enough eliminated candidate preferences to end up ahead of the Labor candidate by 30 votes.

Distribution of Preferences – 4th count[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Liberal Terry Boylan 8,215 42.54
Independent Geoff Brock 5,562 28.81
Labor John Rohde 5,532 28.65

Brock received 80 percent of Labor's fifth count preferences to achieve a TCP vote of 51.72 percent (a majority of 665 votes) against the Liberal candidate.[16][17] The by-election saw a rare TPP swing to an incumbent government, and was the first time an opposition had lost a seat at a by-election in South Australia.[18][19] The result in Frome at the 2010 state election saw Brock come first on primary votes, increasing his primary vote by 14.1 points to a total of 37.7 percent and his TCP vote by 6.5 points to a total of 58.2 percent. Despite a statewide swing against Labor at the election, Labor again increased its TPP vote in Frome by 1.8 points to a total of 50.1 percent.

Federal, Melbourne 2010

2010 Australian federal election: Division of Melbourne, Victoria
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labor Cath Bowtell 34,022 38.09 –11.42
Greens Adam Bandt 32,308 36.17 +13.37
Liberal Simon Olsen 18,760 21.00 –2.49
Sex Party Joel Murray 1,633 1.83 +1.83
Family First Georgia Pearson 1,389 1.55 +0.55
Secular Penelope Green 613 0.69 +0.69
Democrats David Collyer 602 0.67 –0.76
Total formal votes 89,327 96.38 –0.82
Informal votes 3,356 3.62 +0.82
Turnout 92,683 90.09 –1.41
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Cath Bowtell 65,473 73.30 +1.03
Liberal Simon Olsen 23,854 26.70 –1.03
Two-candidate-preferred result
Greens Adam Bandt 50,059 56.04 +10.75
Labor Cath Bowtell 39,268 43.96 –10.75
Greens gain from Labor Swing +10.75

In this example, the two remaining candidates/parties, one a minor party, were the same after preference distribution at both this election and the previous election. Therefore, differing TPP and TCP votes, margins, and swings resulted.[20]

South Australia, Port Adelaide 2012

2012 Port Adelaide state by-election: Electoral district of Pt Adelaide, South Australia
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labor Susan Close 8,218 42.3 –7.6
Independent Gary Johanson 4,717 24.3 +24.3
Independent Sue Lawrie 2,938 15.1 +15.1
Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble 1,415 7.3 +7.3
Greens Justin McArthur 1,096 5.6 –0.6
Independent Colin Thomas 314 1.6 +1.6
Independent Bob Briton 292 1.5 +1.5
One Nation Grant Carlin 269 1.4 +1.4
Democratic Labor Elizabeth Pistor 151 0.8 +0.8
Total formal votes 19,410 92.8 –3.8
Informal votes 1,505 7.2 +3.8
Turnout 20,915 82.8 –10.4
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Susan Close 10,277 52.9 –9.8
Independent Gary Johanson 9,133 47.1 +47.1
Labor hold Swing N/A

At the 2012 Port Adelaide state by-election, only a TCP could be produced, as the Liberal Party of Australia (and Family First Party and independent candidate Max James), who contested the previous election and gained a primary vote of 26.8 percent (and 5.9 percent, and 11.0 percent respectively), did not contest the by-election. On a TPP margin of 12.8 points from the 2010 election, considered a safe margin on the current pendulum, Labor would probably have retained their TPP margin based on unchanged statewide Newspoll since the previous election. Labor retained the seat on a 52.9 percent TCP against Johanson after the distribution of preferences.[21][22][23]

Unlike previous examples, neither a TPP or TCP swing can be produced, as the 2010 result was between Labor and Liberal rather than Labor and independent with no Liberal candidate. An increase or decrease in margins in these situations cannot be meaningfully interpreted as swings. As explained by the ABC's Antony Green, when a major party does not contest a by-election, preferences from independents or minor parties that would normally flow to both major parties does not take place, causing asymmetric preference flows. Examples of this are the 2008 Mayo and 2002 Cunningham federal by-elections, with seats returning to TPP form at the next election.[24] This contradicts News Ltd claims of large swings and a potential Liberal Party win in Port Adelaide at the next election.[25][26]

House of Representatives primary, two-party and seat results

A two-party system has existed in the Australian House of Representatives since the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909. The 1910 election was the first to elect a majority government, with the Australian Labor Party concurrently winning the first Senate majority. Prior to 1909 a three-party system existed in the chamber. A two-party-preferred vote (2PP) has been calculated since the 1919 change from first-past-the-post to preferential voting and subsequent introduction of the Coalition. ALP = Australian Labor Party, L+NP = grouping of Liberal/National/LNP/CLP Coalition parties (and predecessors), Oth = other parties and independents.

House of Representatives results and polling
Election
Year
Labour Free Trade Protectionist Independent Other
parties
Total
seats
1st 1901 14 28 31 2   75
Election
Year
Labour Free Trade Protectionist Independent Other
parties
Total
seats
2nd 1903 23 25 26   1 Revenue Tariff 75
Election
Year
Labour Anti-Socialist Protectionist Independent Other
parties
Total
seats
3rd 1906 26 26 21 1 1 Western Australian 75
Primary vote 2PP vote Seats
ALP L+NP Oth. ALP L+NP ALP L+NP Oth. Total
13 April 1910 election 50.0% 45.1% 4.9% 42 31 2 75
31 May 1913 election 48.5% 48.9% 2.6% 37 38 0 75
5 September 1914 election 50.9% 47.2% 1.9% 42 32 1 75
5 May 1917 election 43.9% 54.2% 1.9% 22 53 0 75
13 December 1919 election 42.5% 54.3% 3.2% 45.9% 54.1% 25 38 2 75
16 December 1922 election 42.3% 47.8% 9.9% 48.8% 51.2% 29 40 6 75
14 November 1925 election 45.0% 53.2% 1.8% 46.2% 53.8% 23 50 2 75
17 November 1928 election 44.6% 49.6% 5.8% 48.4% 51.6% 31 42 2 75
12 October 1929 election 48.8% 44.2% 7.0% 56.7% 43.3% 46 24 5 75
19 December 1931 election 27.1% 48.4% 24.5% 41.5% 58.5% 14 50 11 75
15 September 1934 election 26.8% 45.6% 27.6% 46.5% 53.5% 18 42 14 74
23 October 1937 election 43.2% 49.3% 7.5% 49.4% 50.6% 29 43 2 74
21 September 1940 election 40.2% 43.9% 15.9% 50.3% 49.7% 32 36 6 74
21 August 1943 election 49.9% 23.0% 27.1% 58.2% 41.8% 49 19 6 74
28 September 1946 election 49.7% 39.3% 11.0% 54.1% 45.9% 43 26 5 74
10 December 1949 election 46.0% 50.3% 3.7% 49.0% 51.0% 47 74 0 121
28 April 1951 election 47.6% 50.3% 2.1% 49.3% 50.7% 52 69 0 121
29 May 1954 election 50.0% 46.8% 3.2% 50.7% 49.3% 57 64 0 121
10 December 1955 election 44.6% 47.6% 7.8% 45.8% 54.2% 47 75 0 122
22 November 1958 election 42.8% 46.6% 10.6% 45.9% 54.1% 45 77 0 122
9 December 1961 election 47.9% 42.1% 10.0% 50.5% 49.5% 60 62 0 122
30 November 1963 election 45.5% 46.0% 8.5% 47.4% 52.6% 50 72 0 122
26 November 1966 election 40.0% 50.0% 10.0% 43.1% 56.9% 41 82 1 124
25 October 1969 election 47.0% 43.3% 9.7% 50.2% 49.8% 59 66 0 125
2 December 1972 election 49.6% 41.5% 8.9% 52.7% 47.3% 67 58 0 125
18 May 1974 election 49.3% 44.9% 5.8% 51.7% 48.3% 66 61 0 127
13 December 1975 election 42.8% 53.1% 4.1% 44.3% 55.7% 36 91 0 127
10 December 1977 election 39.7% 48.1% 12.2% 45.4% 54.6% 38 86 0 124
18 October 1980 election 45.2% 46.3% 8.5% 49.6% 50.4% 51 74 0 125
5 March 1983 election 49.5% 43.6% 6.9% 53.2% 46.8% 75 50 0 125
1 December 1984 election 47.6% 45.0% 7.4% 51.8% 48.2% 82 66 0 148
11 July 1987 election 45.8% 46.1% 8.1% 50.8% 49.2% 86 62 0 148
24 March 1990 election 39.4% 43.5% 17.1% 49.9% 50.1% 78 69 1 148
11 Mar 1993 Newspoll 44% 45% 11% 49.5% 50.5%
13 March 1993 election 44.9% 44.3% 10.7% 51.4% 48.6% 80 65 2 147
28–29 Feb 1996 Newspoll 40.5% 48% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
2 March 1996 election 38.7% 47.3% 14.0% 46.4% 53.6% 49 94 5 148
30 Sep – 1 Oct 1998 Newspoll 44% 40% 16% 53% 47%
3 October 1998 election 40.1% 39.5% 20.4% 51.0% 49.0% 67 80 1 148
7–8 Nov 2001 Newspoll 38.5% 46% 15.5% 47% 53%
10 November 2001 election 37.8% 43.0% 19.2% 49.0% 51.0% 65 82 3 150
6–7 Oct 2004 Newspoll 39% 45% 16% 50% 50%
9 October 2004 election 37.6% 46.7% 15.7% 47.3% 52.7% 60 87 3 150
20–22 Nov 2007 Newspoll 44% 43% 13% 52% 48%
24 November 2007 election 43.4% 42.1% 14.5% 52.7% 47.3% 83 65 2 150
17–19 Aug 2010 Newspoll 36.2% 43.4% 20.4% 50.2% 49.8%
21 August 2010 election 38.0% 43.3% 18.7% 50.1% 49.9% 72 72 6 150
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 33% 46% 21% 46% 54%
7 September 2013 election 33.4% 45.6% 21.0% 46.5% 53.5% 55 90 5 150
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll 35% 42% 23% 49.5% 50.5%
2 July 2016 election 34.7% 42.0% 23.3% 49.6% 50.4% 69 76 5 150
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Three percent margin of error.

See also

External links

References

  1. ^ "How the House of Representatives votes are counted". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 11 March 2012.
  2. ^ "Historical national and state-by-state two-party preferred results". Australian Electoral Commission. 17 February 2016. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  3. ^ Malcolm Mackerras. "The Results and the Pendulum". Australian National University. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  4. ^ "Non-classic divisions, 2010 federal election". Australian Electoral Commission. 4 November 2013. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  5. ^ Antony Green (10 February 2012). "How Should Reachtel's Ashgrove Polls be Interpreted". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  6. ^ Green, Anthony (15 January 2018). "2017 Bennelong by-election: Commentary". abc.net.au. ABC News.
  7. ^ "2009 Frome by-election results: State Electoral Office". Seo.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  8. ^ "2009 Frome By-election: ABC Elections". Abc.net.au. 2 February 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  9. ^ "Frome by-election goes down to the wire". ABC Online. 18 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
  10. ^ Green, Antony. "Frome By-election Results". ABC Online. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
  11. ^ Emmerson, Russell; Pepper, Chris (18 January 2009). "Liberals confident they'll hold Outback seat of Frome". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
  12. ^ "Liberals claim victory in Frome". Poll Bludger (Crikey). 21 January 2009. Archived from the original on 31 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009. This article reproduces the original Liberal press release, no longer available on the SA Liberal site.
  13. ^ Hendrik Gout (30 January 2009). "Frome one loss to another: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  14. ^ Richardson, Tom (30 January 2009). "Frome, a lost moment for the Libs: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  15. ^ "District of Frome" (PDF). Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  16. ^ Pepper, Chris (25 January 2009). "Shock Frome loss rocks SA Liberals". The Advertiser. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
  17. ^ Jamie Walker (31 January 2009). "Peace plea as Nationals take revenge on Liberals at polling booth: The Australian 31/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 6 March 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  18. ^ David Nason, New York correspondent (26 January 2009). "Leader left with pumpkin: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  19. ^ Gavin Lower and David Nason (26 January 2009). "Libs demand recount after shock poll loss: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
  20. ^ "Melbourne 2010 election result". Australian Electoral Commission. 29 September 2010. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  21. ^ 2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: ECSA Archived 28 July 2012 at Archive.today
  22. ^ Port Adelaide by-election preference distribution: ECSA Archived 9 April 2013 at the Wayback Machine
  23. ^ Antony Green (20 February 2012). "2012 Port Adelaide by-election results". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  24. ^ Antony Green (13 February 2012). "A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  25. ^ "Port now a poll target for Liberals". The Advertiser. 2 March 2012. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  26. ^ Susan Close wins Port Adelaide for Labor but seat now marginal: The Australian 11 February 2012
    Labor Keeps Port Adelaide, Ramsay in South Australian by-elections: The Australian 12 February 2012
    By-election swings carry 'message for Labor': The Australian 13 February 2012
1954 Australian federal election

Federal elections were held in Australia on 29 May 1954. All 121 seats in the House of Representatives were up for election, but no Senate election took place. The incumbent Liberal–Country coalition led by Prime Minister Robert Menzies defeated the opposition Labor Party led by H. V. Evatt, despite losing the two-party preferred vote.

This was the first federal election that future Prime Minister Gough Whitlam contested as a member of parliament, having entered parliament at the 1952 Werriwa by-election.

1956 Wentworth by-election

A by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Wentworth on 8 December 1956. This was triggered by the resignation of Liberal Party MP Eric Harrison.

The by-election was narrowly won by Liberal Party candidate Les Bury. His final opponent on the two-party-preferred vote, after overtaking the Labor candidate on preferences, was Reg Robson, brother of recently deposed state Liberal leader Murray Robson. Murray Robson supported his brother during the campaign, and it was reported that there was "some talk of expelling" Robson from the party for his role.

1988 Victorian state election

The 1988 Victorian state election, held on Saturday, 1 October 1988, was for the 51st Parliament of Victoria. It was held in the Australian state of Victoria to elect all 88 members of the state's Legislative Assembly and 22 members of the 44-member Legislative Council.

The incumbent Labor Party government led by Premier John Cain won a third term in office, despite a swing against it, and only lost the seat of Warrandyte in Melbourne's north-east. This was credited by commentators to a strong campaign targeting Liberal leader Jeff Kennett whose aggressive leadership style was still seen as a liability, as well as continuing instability in the federal Coalition. Labor's narrow wins in middle class marginal seats saw it retain its majority despite the Liberals winning a bare majority of the two party preferred vote.

1995 Queensland state election

Elections were held in the Australian state of Queensland on 15 July 1995 to elect the 89 members of the state's Legislative Assembly.

The Labor Party, which had been in power since the 1989 election and led by Premier Wayne Goss, was elected to a third term, defeating the National/Liberal Coalition under Rob Borbidge. The Queensland Nationals and Liberals were fighting their first election as a coalition in 15 years, having renewed it midway through Goss' second term. The Coalition actually won a majority of the two-party preferred vote. However, most of that vote was wasted on landslide margins in the Nationals' rural heartland. As a result, while the Coalition scored an overall eight-seat swing, it only won nine seats in greater Brisbane, allowing Labor to hold on to power with a majority of one seat.

On 8 December 1995, the Court of Disputed Returns threw out the results in Mundingburra, which Labor's Ken Davies had won by 16 votes, after it was discovered that 22 overseas military personnel were denied the chance to vote. This forced a by-election, held in February 1996. Liberal Frank Tanti won the by-election, resulting in a hung parliament. With Labor and the Coalition holding 44 seats each, the balance of power rested with Liz Cunningham, the newly elected Independent member for Gladstone. Cunningham threw her support to the Coalition, allowing Borbidge to form a minority government.

1998 Australian federal election

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley.

Future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard entered parliament at this election.

2010 Australian federal election

A federal election was held on Saturday, 21 August 2010 for members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard won a second term against the opposition centre-right Liberal Party of Australia led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and Coalition partner the National Party of Australia, led by Warren Truss, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of three independent MPs and one Australian Greens MP.

Labor and the Coalition each won 72 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, four short of the requirement for majority government, resulting in the first hung parliament since the 1940 election. Six crossbenchers held the balance of power. Greens MP Adam Bandt and independent MPs Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor declared their support for Labor on confidence and supply. Independent MP Bob Katter and National Party of Western Australia MP Tony Crook declared their support for the Coalition on confidence and supply. The resulting 76–74 margin entitled Labor to form a minority government. The Prime Minister, government ministers and parliamentary secretaries were sworn in on 14 September 2010 by the Governor-General Quentin Bryce. In November 2011, Coalition MP and Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper replaced Labor MP Harry Jenkins as Speaker of the House of Representatives, increasing Labor's parliamentary majority from 76–74 to 77–73.In the 76-seat Senate, the Greens won one seat in each of the six states, gaining the sole balance of power with a total of nine seats, after previously holding a shared balance of power with the Family First Party and independent Nick Xenophon. The Coalition was reduced from 37 to 34 and Labor was reduced from 32 to 31. The two remaining seats were occupied by Xenophon and Victoria's new Democratic Labor Party Senator John Madigan. Family First Party Senator Steve Fielding was defeated. These changes took effect in the Senate on 1 July 2011.More than 13 million Australians were enrolled to vote at the time of the election. Australia has compulsory voting (since 1925) and uses preferential ballot (since 1919) in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and single transferable vote (since 1949) with optional group voting tickets (since 1984) in the proportionally represented Senate. The election was conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

Bill Sewell (politician)

William Hawkins Sewell (7 February 1901 – 13 June 1980) was an Australian politician who was a Labor Party member of the Legislative Assembly of Western Australia from 1950 to 1974, representing the seat of Geraldton.

Sewell was born in Beverley, a small town in Western Australia's Wheatbelt region. After leaving school, he worked as a shearer for a period, and later went to Geraldton, where he eventually became a works foreman for the Geraldton Municipality. A long-time member of the Australian Workers' Union (AWU) and the Labor Party, Sewell first stood for parliament at the 1946 Legislative Council elections, but was defeated in Central Province by the sitting Liberal member, Charles Simpson. The following year, he was selected as Labor's candidate for the Legislative Assembly seat of Geraldton at the 1947 state election. The retiring member was John Willcock, a former Labor premier. Sewell faced Liberal and Country Party opponents, and despite polling 47.7 percent on first-preference votes, could only poll 49.9 percent of the two-party-preferred vote, losing to Country candidate Edmund Hall.At the 1950 state election, Sewell was again selected as the Labor candidate for Geraldton, and reversed the result from the previous contest, defeating Hall with 50.7 percent of the two-party-preferred vote. After the 1956 election, he was made deputy chairman of committees in the government of Albert Hawke. In November 1957, following Arthur Moir's elevation to the ministry, he was made chairman of committees, serving in the position until the Labor government's defeat at the 1959 election. Sewell remained in parliament until his retirement at the 1974 state election, after which he was replaced as the member for Geraldton by Jeff Carr. He died in Geraldton in June 1980, aged 79. Sewell had married Bridget Ethel Connolly (née Kempton), a widow, in January 1926, with whom he had two children.

Division of Bowman

The Division of Bowman is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. The division was created in 1949 and is named for David Bowman, an early leader of the Australian Labor Party, in Queensland. The seat consists of the entirety of Redland City, located in the eastern suburbs of Brisbane, and includes the suburbs of Capalaba, Cleveland, Redland Bay, Birkdale, Thorneside, Alexandra Hills, Thornlands, Mount Cotton, Ormiston, Wellington Point and Victoria Point. The division also incorporates various islands of Moreton Bay including Coochiemudlo Island, the inhabited southern Bay Islands (Russell, Karragarra, Macleay and Lamb) and the big tourist destination of North Stradbroke Island.

It is generally a residential electorate with some crops, poultry, various light industries and tourism.

Bowman has traditionally been a highly marginal seat, regularly changing hands between the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal Party. Notably, the electorate has been won by the party with the largest national two party preferred vote at every election from 1954 to 2001 (except 1990). However, in the 2004 election, an energetic campaign by Dr Andrew Laming, and an electoral redistribution (due to the creation of the new Division of Bonner, leading veteran Bowman MP Con Sciacca to contest this new seat), saw Bowman returned to the Liberal Party by a significant margin (59.12% 2PP). The division was then considered by pollsters such as Antony Green to be a fairly safe Liberal seat.In the 2007 election, the electorate experienced a strong swing of 8.86% towards the Australian Labor Party; the incumbent Laming held the seat by 0.04%, or 64 votes. This made it second only to McEwen as the most marginal seat in the country, although the 2009 electoral redistribution in Queensland saw the margin notionally reduced further, to effectively 0.005%, making Bowman Australia's most marginal seat at the time. Laming went on to retain the seat comfortably for the Liberal National Party of Queensland in: 2010, regaining ground with a 9.51% swing towards him; 2013, despite a 6.35% swing against him; and 2016, when all parties saw a positive swing in Bowman (for the first time since 1955), due to the absence of a Palmer United Party candidate.

Electoral district of Frome

Frome is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. It is named after Edward Charles Frome, the third surveyor-general of South Australia. The electorate is based on the industrial city of Port Pirie, and also includes many of the agricultural areas of the Clare and Gilbert Valleys. It covers a total of 6,435 km2 (2,485 sq mi) and takes in the towns of Auburn, Clare, Crystal Brook, Mintaro, Port Broughton, Saddleworth, Snowtown and Riverton in addition to Port Pirie.

Frome has existed in three incarnations throughout the history of the House of Assembly: as a two-seat multi-member marginal electorate from 1884 to 1902, as a single-member electorate from 1938 to 1977, and as a marginal to moderately safe single-member electorate for the Liberal Party since 1993.

The electoral districts of Pirie and Port Pirie have also historically existed.

The first incarnation of Frome was, like the rest of the state, independent-held until the development of the party system in the 1890s. The two seats were split evenly with a conservative and a liberal member from 1890 until the seat's abolition in 1902.

The second incarnation began in 1938 after the introduction of the Playmander. It was based on the area north of Port Pirie, and was originally a Labor stronghold. The seat was won by Mick O'Halloran, who held it until his death in 1960, serving as Opposition Leader from 1949 to 1960. After the Playmander was significantly diluted by the 1970 electoral reforms, Frome was moved into more conservative-leaning rural areas around Port Pirie, turning it into a notional Liberal and Country League (LCL) seat. O'Halloran's successor, Tom Casey, believed this made Frome impossible to hold and successfully transferred to the Legislative Council. The LCL, which later became the South Australia division of the Liberal Party, won the seat at the 1970 state election, and went on to hold Frome until the abolition of the seat in 1977.

The third and current incarnation was created at the 1991 redistribution as a marginal Liberal seat based on Port Pirie. The seat was first contested at the 1993 election. Despite the presence of Port Pirie, a Labor stronghold for more than a century, Labor has never won this incarnation due to the heavy Liberal tilt of the surrounding rural area. Labor did however win 50.1 percent of the two-party vote at the 2010 election, but the seat was retained by incumbent independent Geoff Brock.

Rob Kerin became the elected member in the Liberal landslide of 1993. He went on to become Premier of South Australia in 2001, and Leader of the Opposition from 2002 to 2005 after the Liberals narrowly lost the 2002 state election. Kerin chose to retire in November 2008, which triggered the January 2009 by-election. The by-election was won by independent Geoff Brock, the popular mayor of the Port Pirie Regional Council, after a very close contest with the Labor candidate for second place behind the Liberal candidate. Brock received sufficient preferences from the eliminated Labor candidate to prevail over the Liberal candidate by over 600 votes, receiving 51.7 percent of the two-candidate vote. He increased his primary and two-candidate vote significantly at the 2010 election; Labor won 50.1 percent of the "traditional" Labor/Liberal two-party preferred vote at this election.

With the 2012 redistribution, the Labor/Liberal two-party-preferred margin in Frome went from 0.1 percent Labor to 1.7 percent Liberal. Brock retained the electorate at the 2014 election with a slight increase to his margin, while the Liberals won 60.8 percent of the "traditional" two-party preferred vote. His decision to back the Labor minority government allowed Labor to win a record fourth consecutive four-year term in government.

Brock retained the electorate at the 2018 election.

Electoral district of Keira

Keira is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. It is currently represented by Ryan Park of the Labor Party.

Keira is a northern Illawarra electorate taking in the northern and western Wollongong suburbs of Figtree, Keiraville, Mount Ousley, Balgownie, Corrimal, Bellambi, Woonona, Bulli, Thirroul, Austinmer and Coledale.Keira was established in 1988 largely as a replacement to the seat of Corrimal. Like its predecessor, it is a safe seat for the Labor Party. Labor have only ever fallen below 60 percent of the two-party preferred vote three times; twice to the Liberal Party in 1988 and 2011 and once to an independent in 1999.

Electoral district of Mackay

Mackay is a Legislative Assembly of Queensland electoral district in North Queensland, Australia, encompassing the inner suburbs of the city of Mackay. Outer suburbs of the city are included in the neighbouring electorates of Mirani and Whitsunday.

Mackay has been held by the Labor Party for all but five years since 1915, when it was won by William Forgan Smith, who served as Premier of Queensland from 1932 to 1942. He retired undefeated in 1942 and was replaced by long-serving backbencher Fred Graham. Graham retired in 1969, and was succeeded by Ed Casey. Casey went to lose Labor preselection in 1972, but recontested and won as an independent, and did so again in 1975 before being readmitted to the party in 1977. He subsequently served as Labor leader from 1978 to 1982, and later as a minister in the Goss Labor government. He was succeeded upon his retirement by Tim Mulherin, who was comfortably elected six more times, winning with more than 60% of the vote in 2006.

For the better part of a century, Mackay was a safe Labor seat, remaining in Labor hands even at the height of Joh Bjelke-Petersen's popularity. Aside from Casey's stint as an independent, the only time Labor's grip on the seat was seriously threatened before 2012 was in 1986, when Casey was reduced to 53 percent of the two-party vote. At the 2012 election it became the most marginal ALP seat with Mulherin winning 50.5% of the two-party preferred vote. Mulherin was elected deputy leader of what remained of Labor; it was reduced to only seven seats.

Mulherin retired in 2012, and the seat reverted to its traditional status as a safe Labor seat, with Julieanne Gilbert retaining the seat for Labor on a swing of 12 percent.

Electoral district of Redcliffe

Redcliffe is a Legislative Assembly of Queensland electoral division in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

The division encompasses suburbs to the north and northeast of Brisbane, including Redcliffe, Woody Point, Scarborough, Clontarf and Margate, as well as parts of Kippa-Ring. The electorate's boundary stretches to take in Moreton Island.

The seat was created in 1960 and was first held by Liberal (later National) member Jim Houghton. The seat was contested between the Liberal and National Parties until Houghton's mid-term retirement in 1979, followed by a by-election won by Liberal Terry White. White became the Liberal Party leader in August 1983, causing a split in the National-dominated coalition government. In 1989, he lost the seat to Labor Party member Ray Hollis, who at one point was Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland. In 2005, Hollis resigned and the Liberals' Terry Rogers, a local accountant, picked up the seat in a by-election upset, with an 8.4% swing. However, his tenure in the seat was short, and he lost it to Labor's Lillian van Litsenburg, a school teacher, at the 2006 state election.

Scott Driscoll, president of the United Retail Federation and a local resident born in Redcliffe, contested the seat for the Liberal National Party of Queensland at the 2012 state election, winning with a 15.67% swing. In March 2013 Premier Campbell Newman suspended Driscoll from the Liberal National Party, due to allegations that the MP had misled parliament about his business interests. The month after his suspension, Driscoll announced his resignation from the LNP, and committed to serve the remainder of his parliamentary term on the cross-bench. On 18 November 2013, the parliamentary Ethics Committee found Driscoll guilty of ethics violations and recommended his expulsion. He resigned the next day, citing ill health, though it was a near-certainty that he would have been voted out. This triggered a by-election on 22 February 2014, in which Yvette D'Ath reclaimed the seat for Labor. D'Ath formerly held the federal seat of Petrie, which is based on Redcliffe. She won 57.1% of the two-party preferred vote making it the safest ALP seat in the Queensland Parliament.

Electoral district of Thomastown

The electoral district of Thomastown is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It currently includes the suburbs of Lalor and Thomastown, and parts of Fawkner, Reservoir and Wollert, and has been in existence since 1985.

The seat is extremely safe for the Labor Party. At the 2002 election, Labor frontbencher Peter Batchelor won the seat with over 80% of the two-party-preferred vote, making Thomastown the safest seat in the state.

The seat's first member, Beth Gleeson, died whilst in office in December 1989. The resulting February 1990 by-election, held when support for Labor had plummeted as a result of an economic crisis, was nearly won by the Australian Democrats.

Josie Farrer

Josephine Farrer (born 24 September 1947) is an Australian politician who has been a Labor Party member of the Legislative Assembly of Western Australia since 2013, representing the seat of Kimberley.

Farrer was born on Moola Bulla Station, but her family were forcibly relocated to the nearby town of Halls Creek when she was a child. A member of the Kija people of the East Kimberley, she was raised with Kija (or Gidja) as her first language, and later learned Kriol and English. Prior to being elected to parliament, Farrer served on the Halls Creek Shire Council for sixteen years, including as shire president for seven years. She also served on the board of the Kimberley Land Council.In June 2012, Farrer was preselected as the Labor candidate for the seat of Kimberley at the 2013 state election, replacing the retiring Carol Martin. She recorded only 26.7 percent on first preferences, but went on to win the seat with 55.1 percent of the two-party-preferred vote. Farrer retained her seat at the 2017 state election, recording a 7.9% two-party preferred swing towards her and restoring the seat to its safe status.

Liz Penfold

Elizabeth Meryl Penfold (born 15 September 1947) was an Australian politician who represented the seat of Flinders in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party from 1993 to 2010.

She is a graduate of the Company Directors Course and is a registered lobbyist with the State Government.

Prior to election into politics, her education included a Certificate in Real Estate Sales, Political Studies undertaken by correspondence from Papua New Guinea through the University of Queensland, and was a Classified Teacher from the Wattle Park Teachers College, Adelaide.

Penfold is a fellow of the Flinders University of South Australia Foundation Inc. and Member of the Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Research Foundation as well as Patron of the Lower Eyre Peninsula She has also been a member of many economic, marine and arts organisations, and has participated in hospital and health fundraising.

The 2006 election saw Penfold instead face a National Party candidate on the two party preferred vote. It was due to this that the Liberal vote collapsed from 18.3% to a margin of 10.1%. However the Liberal Labor margin was 78.6% making it the most conservative seat in the State.

Penfold held Opposition portfolios of regional development, small business and consumer affairs. She did not contest the 2010 election. Former Australian Farmers' Federation Grains Council chairman Peter Treloar won the seat for the Liberals with a collapse in the National Party vote causing the two party preferred vote being between Liberal and Labor candidates.

No Aircraft Noise

No Aircraft Noise, or more fully The Common Cause - No Aircraft Noise, is a minor Australian political party. It is dedicated to removing noise pollution for residents of Sydney, which is generated by the city's three airports. The party suggested that the airports should be shifted to the edge of Sydney, away from the dense residential areas. The party's former adherents included Greens MLC Sylvia Hale. Among its best results was a primary vote of 23.65% and two party preferred vote of 39.55% in the electorate of Marrickville in the 1995 state election and 13.61% in the inner-Sydney electorate of Grayndler in the 1996 federal election.

Results of the 2016 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)

The following tables show state-by-state results in the Australian House of Representatives at the 2016 federal election, Coalition 76, Labor 69, Australian Greens 1, Nick Xenophon Team 1, Katter's Australian Party 1, with 2 independents.A number of initially-elected senators were declared ineligible a result of the 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, and replaced after recounts.

Steve Murray (politician)

Stephen Peter Murray (born 5 February 1963) is an Australian politician, representing the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Davenport for the Liberal Party since the 2018 state election. Murray won the seat with 58.8% of the two-party-preferred vote.

Tony Buti

Antonio De Paulo "Tony" Buti (born 20 August 1961) is an Australian politician. He has been a Labor Party member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly representing the seat of Armadale since 2 October 2010, when he was elected in a by-election.

Buti attended the University of Western Australia and later the Australian National University, where he studied law, receiving his LL.B in 1992. He completed his PhD, which dealt with guardianship law and the Stolen Generations, at Oxford University in 2003. From 1997, Buti lectured at the School of Law in Murdoch University. He is the author of several books on the removal of Aboriginal children from their families, as well as sports law.

Another book he wrote was an overview of the Perth Mint Swindle in 2011. He also wrote a biography of Sir Ronald Wilson.He is also chairman of the Armadale Redevelopment Authority.

In 2010, following Labor frontbencher Alannah MacTiernan's resignation from the state Parliament to contest the federal seat of Canning at the 2010 federal election, Buti was preselected as Labor's candidate for the by-election. He won the seat easily with 57.9% of the primary vote and a two-party-preferred vote of 70.6% versus the Christian Democratic Party (the governing Liberal Party did not run a candidate).

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