Runs created

Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.

Purpose

James explains in his book, The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:

With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many runs have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCovey hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?[1]

Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is:

where

  • A = On-base factor
  • B = Advancement factor
  • C = Opportunity factor

Formula

Basic runs created

In the most basic runs created formula:

where H is hits, BB is base on balls, TB is total bases and AB is at-bats.

This can also be expressed as

OBP × SLG × AB
or,
OBP × TB

where OBP is on-base percentage, SLG is slugging average, AB is at-bats and TB is total bases.

"Stolen base" version of runs created

This formula expands on the basic formula by accounting for a player's basestealing ability.

where H is hits, BB is base on balls, CS is caught stealing, TB is total bases, SB is stolen bases, and AB is at bats.

"Technical" version of runs created

This formula accounts for all basic, easily available offensive statistics.

where H is hits, BB is base on balls, CS is caught stealing, HBP is hit by pitch, GIDP is grounded into double play, TB is total bases, IBB is intentional base on balls, SH is sacrifice hit, SF is sacrifice fly, SB is stolen base, and AB is at bats.

2002 version of runs created

Earlier versions of runs created overestimated the number of runs created by players with extremely high A and B factors (on-base and slugging), such as Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. This is because these formulas placed a player in an offensive context of players equal to himself; it is as if the player is assumed to be on base for himself when he hits home runs. Of course, this is impossible, and in reality, a great player is interacting with offensive players whose contributions are inferior to his. The 2002 version corrects this by placing the player in the context of his real-life team. This 2002 version also takes into account performance in "clutch" situations.

A:
B:
C:

where K is strikeout.

The initial individual runs created estimate is then:

If situational hitting information is available, the following should be added to the above total:

where RISP is runners in scoring position, BA is batting average, HR is home run, and ROB is runners on base. The subscripts indicate the required condition for the formula. For example, means "hits while runners are in scoring position."

This is then figured for every member of the team, and an estimate of total team runs scored is added up. The actual total of team runs scored is then divided by the estimated total team runs scored, yielding a ratio of real to estimated team runs scored. The above individual runs created estimate is then multiplied by this ratio, to yield a runs created estimate for the individual.[2]

Other expressions of runs created

The same information provided by runs created can be expressed as a rate stat, rather than a raw number of runs contributed. This is usually expressed as runs created per some number of outs, e.g. (27 of course being the number of outs per team in a standard 9-inning baseball game).

Accuracy

Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error.[3] Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.

Related statistics

  • Win Shares is James' attempt to summarize, in one stat, a player's contributions on both offense and defense.

See also

References

  1. ^ James, Bill (1985). The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1st ed.), pp. 273-4. Villard. ISBN 0-394-53713-0
  2. ^ James, Bill and Baseball Info Solutions (2007). The Bill James Handbook 2008, pp. 475-7. ACTA Sports. ISBN 978-0-87946-340-3
  3. ^ James, Bill (2002). Win Shares, p. 90. STATS, Inc. Publishing. ISBN 1-931584-03-6

External links

2003 Cricket World Cup statistics

2003 Cricket World Cup statistics lists all the major statistics and records for the 2003 Cricket World Cup held in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya from 9 February to 24 March 2003.

Talha Jubair became the youngest player to participate in Cricket World Cup. Sri Lanka's clinical demolition of Canada for 36 runs created a new World Cup record for the lowest innings score, a dubious distinction that was, at the time, the lowest score in ODI history. Records tumbled when defending champions Australia took on minnows Namibia, with Glenn McGrath claiming the World Cup's best bowling figures (7/15), a performance that helped Australia defeat Namibia by 256 runs. Team-mate Adam Gilchrist created a new wicket-keeping dismissal record in the same match, with 6. Against Namibia, Indian players Sachin Tendulkar and Sourav Ganguly recorded the second highest partnership in World Cup cricket (244 runs). India and Australia clashed in a one-sided battle in the final, with Australia creating multiple records (highest World Cup final score, highest score by a captain in a World Cup final – Ricky Ponting, most number of sixes by a batsman – Ponting) in a match; with Australia winning by 125 runs. Tendulkar's 673 runs, the most runs scored in a single World Cup history to date, was the consolation for India as he won the 2003 Cricket World Cup Man of the Series award. The World Cup also saw fielding records in an innings (Mohammad Kaif) and tournament (Ponting). The World Cup broke the record for most number of sixes in the tournament (with 266), but this was easily surpassed in the 2007 edition (with 373).

Base runs

Base runs (BsR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician David Smyth to estimate the number of runs a team "should have" scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter or pitcher creates or allows. It measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' runs created, but as sabermetrician Tom M. Tango points out, base runs models the reality of the run-scoring process "significantly better than any other run estimator".

Bill James

George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose.

In 2006, Time named him in the Time 100 as one of the most influential people in the world. He is a senior advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox.

Carlos Delgado

Carlos Juan Delgado Hernández (born June 25, 1972) is a Puerto Rican former professional baseball player. He holds the all-time Major League Baseball home run record among Puerto Rican players, with 473. He is one of only six players in Major League history to hit 30 home runs in ten consecutive seasons, becoming the fourth player to do so.

During his twelve years with the Toronto Blue Jays, Delgado set many team records, including home runs (336), RBI (1,058), walks (827), slugging percentage (.556), OPS (.949), runs (889), total bases (2,786), doubles (343), runs created (1,077), extra base hits (690), times on base (2,362), hit by pitch (122), intentional walks (128) and at bats per home run (14.9). Delgado also played for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets. On February 4, 2015, Delgado was elected to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.

Dwight Evans (baseball)

Dwight Michael "Dewey" Evans (born November 3, 1951) is an American former professional baseball right fielder and right-handed batter who played with the Boston Red Sox (1972–90) and Baltimore Orioles (1991) in Major League Baseball (MLB). He was a three-time All-Star, won eight Gold Glove Awards, and won two Silver Slugger Awards. Evans played the second-most career games for the Red Sox of any player, surpassed only by Carl Yastrzemski.

Extrapolated Runs

Extrapolated Runs (XR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician Jim Furtado to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. XR measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' Runs Created, but it is a linear weights formula that assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula like James' creation.

Houston Astros award winners and league leaders

This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Houston Astros professional baseball team.

List of Baltimore Orioles team records

This is a list of team records for the Baltimore Orioles baseball franchise. Records include when the franchise was the Brewers and Browns.

List of Chicago White Sox team records

This is a list of team records for the Chicago White Sox professional baseball team.

List of Cincinnati Reds team records

This is a list of team records for the Cincinnati Reds baseball team. (The Reds do not recognize records set before 1900.)

List of Major League Baseball annual runs scored leaders

Major League Baseball recognizes runs scored leaders in the American League and National League each season. In baseball, a run is scored when a player advances safely around first, second and third base and returns safely to home plate, touching the bases in that order, before three outs are recorded. A player may score by hitting a home run or by any combination of plays that puts him safely "on base" (that is, on first, second, or third) as a runner and subsequently brings him home. The object of the game is for a team to score more runs than its opponent.

In baseball statistics, a player who advances around all the bases to score is credited with a run (R), sometimes referred to as a "run scored." While runs scored is considered an important individual batting statistic, it is regarded as less significant than runs batted in (RBIs)—superiority in the latter, for instance, is one of the elements of the exceptional batting achievement known as the Triple Crown. Both individual runs scored and runs batted in are heavily context-dependent; for a more sophisticated assessment of a player's contribution toward producing runs for his team, see runs created.

List of Major League Baseball career records

In Major League Baseball (MLB), records play an integral part in evaluating a player's impact on the sport. Holding a career record almost guarantees a player eventual entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame because it represents both longevity and consistency over a long period of time.

List of New York Mets team records

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On-base plus slugging

On-base plus slugging (OPS) is a sabermetric baseball statistic calculated as the sum of a player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The ability of a player both to get on base and to hit for power, two important offensive skills, are represented. An OPS of .900 or higher in Major League Baseball puts the player in the upper echelon of hitters. Typically, the league leader in OPS will score near, and sometimes above, the 1.000 mark.

Run (baseball)

In baseball, a run is scored when a player advances around first, second and third base and returns safely to home plate, touching the bases in that order, before three outs are recorded and all obligations to reach base safely on batted balls are met or assured. A player may score by hitting a home run or by any combination of plays that puts him safely "on base" (that is, on first, second, or third) as a runner and subsequently brings him home. The object of the game is for a team to score more runs than its opponent.

The Official Baseball Rules hold that if the third out of an inning is a force out of a runner advancing to any base then, even if another baserunner crosses home plate before that force out is made, his run does not count. However, if the third out is not a force out, but a tag out, then if that other baserunner crosses home plate before that tag out is made, his run will count. In baseball statistics, a player who advances around all the bases to score is credited with a run (R), sometimes referred to as a "run scored". While runs scored is considered an important individual batting statistic, it is regarded as less significant than runs batted in (RBIs). Both individual runs scored and runs batted in are heavily context-dependent; for a more sophisticated assessment of a player's contribution toward producing runs for his team see runs created.

A pitcher is likewise assessed runs surrendered in his statistics, which differentiate between standard earned runs (for which the pitcher is statistically assigned full responsibility) and unearned runs scored due to fielding errors, which do not count in his personal statistics. Specifically, if a fielding error occurs which affects the number of runs scored in an inning, the Official Scorer – the official in-game statistician – in order to determine how many of the runs should be classified as earned, will reconstruct the inning as if the error had not occurred. For example, with two outs, suppose a runner reaches base because of a fielding error, and then the next batter hits a two-run home run, and then the following batter then makes the third out, ending the inning. If the inning is reconstructed without the error, and if that third batter, instead of reaching on an error, registered an out, the inning would have ended there without any runs scoring. Thus, the two runs that did score will be classified as unearned, and will not count in the pitcher's personal statistics.If a pitching substitution occurs while a runner is on base, and that runner eventually scores a run, the pitcher who allowed the player to get on base is charged with the run even though he was no longer pitching when the run scored.

Runs produced

Runs produced is a baseball statistic that can help estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. The formula adds together the player's runs and run batted in, and then subtracts the player's home runs.

Home runs are subtracted to compensate for the batter getting credit for both one run and at least one RBI when hitting a home run.

Unlike runs created, runs produced is a teammate-dependent stat in that it includes Runs and RBIs, which are affected by which batters bat near a player in the batting order. Also, subtracting home runs seems logical from an individual perspective, but on a team level it double-counts runs that are not home runs.

To counteract the double-counting, some[who?] have suggested an alternate formula which is the average of a player's runs scored and runs batted in.

Here, when a player scores a run, he shares the credit with the batter who drove him in, so both are credited with half a run produced. The same is true for an RBI, where credit is shared between the batter and runner. In the case of a home run, the batter is responsible for both the run scored and the RBI, so the runs produced are (1 + 1)/2 = 1, as expected.

Seattle Mariners award winners and league leaders

The following is a list of Seattle Mariners professional baseball players and managers who have won various awards or other accolades from Major League Baseball or other organizations or have led the American League in some statistical category at the end of the season.

Value over replacement player

In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter or pitcher contributes to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player who is an average fielder at that position and a below average hitter. A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent."

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