RealClearPolitics

RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a Chicago-based political news and polling data aggregator formed in 2000[3] by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan.[4][5][6] The site features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary from its own contributors. The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity" in its commentary section.[7]

RCP has expanded to include a number of sister sites. Politico founder Jim VandeHei has called the site "an essential stop for anyone interested in politics."[8] The site is especially noted for its aggregation of polling data during election seasons, which is frequently cited by various media organizations that cover political issues.[9][10][11]

RealClearPolitics
RCP logo
Type of site
News aggregation, political commentary
Available inEnglish
OwnerRealClearInvestors and Crest Media
Created byJohn McIntyre, Tom Bevan
Websiterealclearpolitics.com
Alexa rankDecrease 5,137 (As of 19 March 2019)[1]
CommercialYes
RegistrationOptional
LaunchedFebruary 3, 2000[2]
Current statusOnline

Origin and philosophy

Origin

The web site was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive.[5] McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information".[12] They call what they do "intelligent aggregation."[13] The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online. It has expanded from a two-man operation to a full-time staff of more than two-dozen employees overseeing the company's mainstay, RealClearPolitics, as well as ten smaller sites.

Philosophy

In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, McIntyre said, "We're trying to pull together the best political stories, op-eds, news analyses, editorials out there. The proliferation of content is enormous. Part of what we're trying to do is distill it in a clear, simple way for people who don't have hours to spend searching the Net".[14] He told the Chicago Sun-Times that RealClearPolitics strives to feature "serious intellectual pieces" and that they're "not looking for the over-the-top, vitriolic, red-meat craziness on either side".[15]

Patrick Stack of Time magazine has described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning".[16] The site has been described as being run by conservatives, and containing "opinion pieces from multiple media sources".[17] In 2009 RealClearPolitics was described as a weblog "in the conservative pantheon" by Richard Davis.[18][19]

In an interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the Web site as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values". Said Bevan, "We think debate on the issues is a very important thing. We post a variety of opinions". He further stated, "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives".[4]

In a 2001 article for Princeton Alumni Weekly, which noted that "The articles selected invariably demonstrate McIntyre and Bevan's political bent, about which they are unabashedly forthcoming." McIntyre said, "I'm not really a die-hard Republican because my interests are less on social issues, more on taxing and spending... But I definitely don't want the government telling me what to do with my property... Nevertheless, any political junkie—even a liberal—would enjoy our site because the topics we choose are current."[20]

Format

Updated continuously, RealClearPolitics' websites aggregate content from a wide range of sources, sources that run the gamut of locations and political persuasions. Stories from the Washington Post and other large-circulation media frequently run alongside articles from such lesser-known papers as the Ottawa Citizen, while analyses from the liberal New Republic may be paired with conservative publications such as the Weekly Standard. McIntyre's purported objective is "to give readers ideological diversity. We're trying to stay immersed in the nation's political bloodstream at all times. That way, we can show you every small, little twist and turn, and give multiple sides to every story".[7]

Ownership

Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007.[21] On May 19, 2015, it was announced that RealClearInvestors and Crest Media bought out Forbes's stake for an undisclosed amount.[22][22]

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports.[23] RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010.[24] RealClearHistory launched in 2012; in 2013 RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans issues.[25]

Original content

In addition to linking to external content, RealClearPolitics also provides original commentary and reporting, with a staff that includes Carl Cannon, Scott Conroy, Erin McPike, Caitlin Huey-Burns, Alexis Simendinger, James Arkin, and Sean Trende.

Political poll averaging

RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. However, some statisticians say that it is sometimes misleading to average results from multiple polls.[26] When Nate Silver of rival site FiveThirtyEight.com claimed RealClearPolitics.com was rigging its averages to favor Senator John McCain and other Republicans, McIntyre denied having a conservative bent, stating, "We're running a business, We have no interest in screwing around with that for partisan purposes".[27] Silver later backed away from the claim and said the two sites had a friendly rivalry and grudging respect for each other.[27]

In recent elections, the final Generic Congressional Vote average of polls has underestimated Republican performance. In 2016, Republicans performed 1.7% better than the final RealClearPolitics average, [28] and in 2014 Republicans performed 3.3% better than the site's average. [29] In the 2016 Presidential Election, the final RealClearPolitics average margin overestimated Democrat Hillary Clinton's popular vote performance by 1.3%. The final electoral college prediction map produced by RealClearPolitics predicted that she would narrowly win the election with 272 electoral votes. However, she lost the election to Republican Donald Trump in spite of winning the popular vote. [30]

References

  1. ^ "Realclearpolitics.com Traffic, Demographics and Competitors - Alexa". Alexa Internet. Retrieved 2019-03-19.
  2. ^ "RealClearPolitics.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools". WHOIS. Retrieved 2016-10-21.
  3. ^ "Polling Averages". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  4. ^ a b D'Agostino, Joseph A. (31 March 2003). "Conservative Spotlight: Real Clear Politics". Human Events. 59 (11): 16.
  5. ^ a b Zorn, Eric (October 26, 2004). "Political site polls well with election junkies". Chicago Tribune: Metro, 1.
  6. ^ Wolinsky, Howard (September 18, 2006). "Politicking pays off: Web site a must-read for political fanatics". Chicago Sun-Times: 55.
  7. ^ a b "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". The New York Sun. March 10, 2008. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  8. ^ Johnson, Steve (February 7, 2008). "Real Clear Politics real clear on its growth, mission". Chicago Tribune.
  9. ^ Jones, Tim (2008-10-19). "Candidates come courting the Hoosiers". Los Angeles Times. ISSN 0458-3035. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  10. ^ "Obama's surge swamps Hillary". 2008-02-10. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  11. ^ "Obama cuts into Clinton's majority – US Election – smh.com.au". www.smh.com.au. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  12. ^ Wolgemuth, Liz (December 12, 2007). "Political Junkies Spawn a Real, Clear Success". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  13. ^ "Real Clear Politics Real Clear on its Growth, Mission". The Chicago Tribune. February 7, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  14. ^ Johnson, Steve (February 7, 2008). "Real Clear Politics real clear on its growth, mission". Chicago Tribune.
  15. ^ Pallasch, Abdon (May 29, 2012). "Popular, Chicago-based political news website run by two family guys". Chicago Sun-Times.
  16. ^ Stack, Patrick (October 14, 2004). "Cheat Sheet: Election Websites". Time. Archived from the original on October 16, 2004. Retrieved 2009-07-15. RealClearPolitics.com scores points for its in-depth, right-leaning commentary section
  17. ^ Steffen Schmidt, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, Cengage Advantage Books: American Government and Politics Today p. 140 Google. Cengage Learning, 2012
  18. ^ Richard Davis, Typing Politics: The Role of Blogs in American Politics p. 54 (2009) Oxford University Press Google.
  19. ^ Richard Davis, Politics Online: Blogs, Chatrooms, and Discussion Groups in American Democracy p. 43 (2013) Routledge Google.
  20. ^ Rob MacKay, "Political junkies create Web site for opinion and analysis" June 6, 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly Princeton.
  21. ^ "Forbes Media Acquires Fifty-One Percent Stake in RealClearPolitics.com". www.businesswire.com. Retrieved 2009-11-05.
  22. ^ a b "Crest Media And Real Clear Investors Buy Remaining Stake In RealClearPolitics". PRNewswire.com. Retrieved 2015-05-19.
  23. ^ Gustafson, Colin (March 10, 2008). "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". New York Sun. Retrieved 2008-03-25.
  24. ^ New RealClear Sites Launching Today – Real Clear Politics – TIME.com
  25. ^ "RealClearDefense - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls". realcleardefense.com.
  26. ^ Bialik, Carl (February 15, 2008). "Election Handicappers Are Using Risky Tool: Mixed Poll Averages". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  27. ^ a b Becker, Bernie (2008-10-28). "Political Polling Sites Are in a Race of Their Own". New York Times. Retrieved 2009-11-07.
  28. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2016 Generic Congressional Vote". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  29. ^ https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
  30. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". www.realclearpolitics.com.

External links

1913 State of the Union Address

The 1913 State of the Union Address was given by Woodrow Wilson, the 28th President of the United States, on Tuesday, December 2, 1913. It was given directly to the 63rd United States Congress by the president. Wilson was the first to do so since John Adams in 1800. With a few exceptions all addresses since then have been given directly following Wilson's lead.It was his first. He stated, "The country, I am thankful to say, is at peace with all the world, and many happy manifestations multiply about us of a growing cordiality and sense of community of interest among the nations, foreshadowing an age of settled peace and good will." The speech was just over 3,500 words and took 28 minutes to read.In 2014 RealClearPolitics placed it 10th on their list of "Top 10 State of the Union Addresses" for its break with tradition.

2008 United States presidential election in Alaska

The 2008 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election held throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose 3 electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Alaska was won by Republican nominee John McCain with a 21.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Democratic nominee Barack Obama did, however, perform better in 2008 than Democratic nominee John Kerry did in 2004.

The presence of popular Governor Sarah Palin on the ticket as the Republican Party's vice presidential nominee appeared to help. The McCain-Palin ticket received just a slightly smaller percentage of Alaskan votes than did Bush-Cheney in 2004 despite the nation's swinging Democrat by nearly 5% (48.3% to 52.9%). Polls from April until August indeed showed John McCain with a slim lead, with one poll taken in early August showing Obama five points ahead. However, from when Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate on August 29, polls showed John McCain consistently ahead. RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 55.8% for McCain, compared to 41.3% for Obama.

2010 Alaska gubernatorial election

The 2010 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Former Governor Sarah Palin did not run, having resigned in July 2009. Incumbent Governor Sean Parnell, who as lieutenant governor succeeded Palin following her resignation, announced that he would seek a full term.Following the primary election on Tuesday, August 24, 2010, the Democratic ticket consists of Ethan Berkowitz and Diane E. Benson running against Republican Parnell and his running mate, Mead Treadwell.In the general election Parnell/Treadwell defeated Berkowitz/Benson by a wide margin. Parnell received over 59% of the vote, which is the highest percentage for any Alaska gubernatorial candidate in history.

2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election

The 2010 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen was term-limited and unable to seek re-election. Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, the Republican nominee, defeated Democratic nominee Mike McWherter.

Non-partisan organizations The Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, and The New York Times rated the gubernatorial election as leaning Republican, while The Rothenberg Political Report rated it as "Republican favored," RealClearPolitics and Sabato's Crystal Ball as "Likely Republican", and Rasmussen Reports as "Solid Republican."

2010 Utah gubernatorial special election

The 2010 Utah gubernatorial election took place November 2, 2010. It was a special election to fill the remainder of Jon Huntsman's term. Governor Huntsman resigned on 11 August 2009, to become United States Ambassador to China. Lieutenant Governor Gary Herbert assumed the governorship and went on to defeat his Democratic opponent Peter Corroon, in the 2010 election.

2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine, despite losing the popular vote. Trump took office as the 45th President, and Pence as the 48th Vice President, on January 20, 2017.

Trump emerged as the front-runner amidst a wide field of Republican primary candidates, while Clinton defeated Senator Bernie Sanders and became the first female presidential nominee of a major American party. Trump's populist, nationalist campaign, which promised to "Make America Great Again" and opposed political correctness, illegal immigration, and many free-trade agreements, garnered extensive free media coverage. Clinton emphasized her political experience, denounced Trump and many of his supporters as bigots, and advocated the expansion of President Obama's policies; racial, LGBT, and women's rights; and "inclusive capitalism". The tone of the general election campaign was widely characterized as divisive and negative. Trump faced controversy over his views on race and immigration, incidents of violence against protestors at his rallies, and his alleged sexual misconduct, while Clinton was dogged by declining approval ratings and an FBI investigation of her improper use of a private email server.

Clinton had held the lead in nearly every pre-election nationwide poll and in most swing state polls, leading some commentators to compare Trump's victory to that of Harry S. Truman in 1948 as one of the greatest political upsets in modern U.S. history. While Clinton received 2.87 million more votes nationwide (the largest margin ever for a candidate who lost the electoral college), a margin of 2.1%, Trump won a majority of electoral votes, with a total of 306 electors from 30 states, including upset victories in the pivotal Rust Belt region. Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton garnered 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote. He is the first president without any prior experience in public service or the military, the oldest at inauguration and is believed by many to be the wealthiest.

The United States government's intelligence agencies concluded on January 6, 2017, that the Russian government had interfered in the elections in order to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency". President Trump repeatedly criticized these conclusions, calling the issue a "hoax" and "fake news". Trump has also criticized accusations of collusion between Russia and his campaign, citing a lack of evidence. Investigations regarding such collusion were started by the FBI, the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the House Intelligence Committee. The Special Counsel investigation that began in May 2017 and concluded in March 2019.

2016 United States presidential election in Alaska

The 2016 United States presidential election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus The District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

Alaska voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic presidential nomination in caucuses on March 26. They expressed their preferences for the Republican presidential nomination in caucuses on March 1.

Donald Trump won the election in Alaska with 51.28% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 36.55% of the vote. Alaska has voted Republican in every election since 1968, and since its admission to the Union in 1959, it has only voted for the Democratic candidate on one occasion: President Lyndon B. Johnson's win in 1964.

The state is known for supporting third parties, including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in the 2012 election, in which Alaska was his third-strongest state. He reran as the Libertarian Party's nominee for the 2016 election and appeared on the ballot in Alaska, garnering 5.88% of the vote, making Alaska again his third strongest state after New Mexico and North Dakota.

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the four U.S. Representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The state congressional delegation flipped from a 3–1 Republican majority to a 3–1 Democratic majority. The Democrats last won the majority of seats in the 2010 election.

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton.

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections. The primary election was held on May 8, 2018. In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%. Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by almost exactly the same margin as Donnelly had won by six years earlier (5.9 v. 5.7).

A. B. Stoddard

Alexandra Brandon Stoddard – who goes by A. B. Stoddard – (born March 30, 1967) is an associate editor and columnist at RealClearPolitics. Previously, she worked as an associate editor and columnist for The Hill newspaper. She has been quoted by other news media.

Aggregator

Aggregator may refer to:

News aggregator, software or a website that aggregates news from various sources

Poll aggregator, a website that aggregates polling data to gauge public sentiment on key political issues or to measure likely support for a candidate or party in an upcoming election. See the following examples:FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics

Politicrunch

DrudgeReportReview aggregator, a website that aggregates reviews of movies or other products or services

Search aggregator, software that aggregates search results from various search engines

Social network aggregation, the collection of content from multiple social network services

Video aggregator, a website that aggregates online videos from various sources

Job ads aggregator, a website that aggregates job ads from various job boards, multiposter sites, as well as from direct employers and recruiting agencies

Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training

The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST) is a United States non-profit organization established in 1986 which chronicles the history of American foreign policy and practice.

The ADST's major initiative is the Foreign Affairs Oral History Project. ADST interviews American diplomats as soon as possible after their departure from government service about their professional assessments of American and foreign leaders, successful and unsuccessful policies, and foreign conflicts. The oral history project was begun by U.S. foreign service officer Charles “Stu” Kennedy in the 1980s who, after listening to several eulogies given at an ambassador's funeral, became concerned that the historically valuable, personal recollections of U.S. diplomats might be lost forever if not recorded. Originally sponsored by Georgetown University's Lauinger Library, it was subsequently taken over by the ADST. The project's collection is regularly referenced by media, including the Washington Post, The Atlantic, RealClearPolitics, and others.In addition to the Foreign Affairs Oral History Project, ADST also "assists in the publication of books pertaining to diplomacy and the foreign service". Its "Series on Diplomats and Diplomacy" has published African Wars: A Defense Intelligence Perspective (William G. Thom), American Ambassadors: The Past, Present, and Future of America’s Diplomats (Dennis Jett), The American Consul (Charles Stuart Kennedy), The Architecture of Diplomacy: Building America’s Embassies (Jane C. Loeffler), and others.The ADST is a 501(c)3 organization headquartered at the George P. Shultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center in Arlington, Virginia.

Bill Scher

Bill Scher (born September 26, 1972) is a liberal pundit and political analyst. He is a Contributing Editor to POLITICO Magazine, and a contributor to RealClearPolitics. He also co-hosts "The DMZ," an online TV show with conservative pundit Matt Lewis on Bloggingheads.tv. Scher is an alumnus of Oberlin College.

Cathy Young

Catherine Alicia Young (born Yekaterina Yung Russian: Екатерина Юнг; born February 10, 1963) is a Russian-born American journalist. Young is primarily known for her writing about rape and feminism. She is the author of two books, a frequent contributor to the libertarian monthly Reason, and a regular columnist for Newsday and RealClearPolitics.

Convention bounce

A convention bounce or convention bump refers to an increase in support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised national convention of their party. A presumptive nominee for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his or her pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions.

Erin McPike

Erin Kathleen McPike (born June 28, 1983) is a political consultant and journalist. She has worked for CNN, NBC News, National Journal, and RealClearPolitics.

John McIntyre

John McIntyre may refer to:

John McIntyre (archbishop of Birmingham) (1855–1935), Roman Catholic archbishop of Birmingham

John McIntyre (bishop of Gippsland) (1951-2014), bishop of the Anglican Diocese of Gippsland in Australia

John McIntyre (cartoonist) (born 1954), American writer, director, and art director

John McIntyre (copyeditor), American copy editor and blogger

John McIntyre (cricketer) (born 1944), New Zealand cricketer

John McIntyre (racing driver) (born 1977), New Zealand racing driver

John McIntyre (hurler) (born 1961), Irish hurling manager

John McIntyre (ice hockey) (born 1969), Canadian ice hockey player

John McIntyre (politician) (1832–1904), Australian businessman and politician

John McIntyre (publisher), co-founder of RealClearPolitics

John McIntyre (American rower) (born 1928), American rower who competed in the 1948 Summer Olympics

John McIntyre (Canadian rower) (born 1945), Canadian rower who competed in the 1968 Summer Olympics

John McIntyre (theologian) (1916–2005), Professor of Theology at the University of Edinburgh

John J. McIntyre (politician) (1904–1974), U.S. Representative from Wyoming

John J. McIntyre (bishop) (born 1963), American Roman Catholic bishop

John T. McIntyre (1871–1951), American novelist

Trapper John McIntyre, character from American TV series M*A*S*H

John McIntyre (publisher)

John E. McIntyre is the co-founder of RealClearPolitics. He also publishes on the TIME blog and has appeared on the nationally syndicated Michael Reagan Talk Show.McIntyre, who majored in economics at Princeton University, was working as a trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 2000 when he and co-founder Tom Bevan made the decision to launch RealClearPolitics. McIntrye said at the time, "We're political junkies and obsessive newspaper readers. So we decided that we would help people like us who don't have the time to cruise around the Web, but want to read the best articles of the day. We set up a one-stop shop where we do all the hunting, so others don't have to."McIntyre is listed as "director" of FDRLST Media, publisher of The Federalist in one of the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The two publications share a suite in the same building at the same Chicago street address.

Sean Trende

Sean P. Trende (born January 6, 1973) is an American journalist and political analyst specializing in American elections analysis. He is Senior Elections Analyst at RealClearPolitics. He has regularly appeared as a guest on Fox News, NPR’s All Things Considered and CNN Radio. The Washington Times calls him "a premier political number cruncher". He is the author of Lost Majority published by Palgrave Macmillan. On September 12, 2012, National Journal announced that Trende would be a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics.Trende holds a B.A. degree from Yale University and an M.A. in political science and a J.D. from Duke University; he practiced law for eight years at Kirkland & Ellis LLP, and Hunton & Williams LLP before becoming a full-time political analyst. After living in Midlothian, Virginia with his wife and children, as of 2017 he lives in the Columbus, Ohio area and is working part-time on a doctorate at Ohio State University.

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