Domino theory

The domino theory was a theory prominent from the 1950s to the 1980s that posited that if one country in a region came under the influence of communism, then the surrounding countries would follow in a domino effect.[1] The domino theory was used by successive United States administrations during the Cold War to justify the need for American intervention around the world.

U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower described the theory during an April 7, 1954, news conference, when referring to communism in Indochina:

Finally, you have broader considerations that might follow what you would call the "falling domino" principle. You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have the most profound influences.[2]

Domino theory
An illustration of the domino theory as it had been predicted

History

In 1945, the Soviet Union brought most of the countries of eastern Europe and Central Europe into its influence as part of the post-World War II new settlement,[3] prompting Winston Churchill to declare in a speech in 1946 at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri that:

From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an "Iron Curtain" has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Prague, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia; all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject, in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and in some cases increasing measure of control from Moscow.[4]

Following the Iran crisis of 1946, Harry S. Truman declared what became known as the Truman Doctrine in 1947,[5] promising to contribute financial aid to Greece during their Civil War and to Turkey following World War II, in the hope that this would impede the advancement of Communism into Western Europe.[6] Later that year, diplomat George Kennan wrote an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that became known as the "X Article", which first articulated the policy of containment,[7] arguing that the further spread of Communism to countries outside a "buffer zone" around the USSR, even if it happened via democratic elections, was unacceptable and a threat to U.S. national security.[8] Kennan was also involved, along with others in the Truman administration, in creating the Marshall Plan,[9] which also began in 1947, to give aid to the countries of Western Europe (along with Greece and Turkey),[10] in large part with the hope of keeping them from falling under Soviet domination.[11]

In 1949, a Communist-backed government, led by Mao Zedong, was instated in China (officially becoming the People's Republic of China).[12] The installation of the new government was established after the People's Liberation Army defeated the Nationalist Republican Government of China in the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War (1927-1949).[13] Two Chinas were formed - mainland 'Communist China' (People's Republic of China) and 'Nationalist China' Taiwan (Republic of China). The takeover by Communists of the world's most populous nation was seen in the West as a great strategic loss, prompting the popular question at the time, "Who lost China?"[14] The United States subsequently ended diplomatic relations with China in response to the communist takeover in 1949.[13]

Korea had also partially fallen under Soviet domination at the end of World War II, split from the south of the 38th parallel where U.S. forces subsequently moved into. By 1948, as a result of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S., Korea was split into two regions, with separate governments, each claiming to be the legitimate government of Korea, and neither side accepting the border as permanent. In 1950 fighting broke out between Communists and Republicans that soon involved troops from China (on the Communists' side), and the United States and 15 allied countries (on the Republicans' side). Though the war never officially ended, the fighting ended in 1953 with an armistice that left Korea divided into two nations, North Korea and South Korea. Mao Zedong's decision to take on the U.S. in the Korean War was a direct attempt to confront what the Communist bloc viewed as the strongest anti-Communist power in the world, undertaken at a time when the Chinese Communist regime was still consolidating its own power after winning the Chinese Civil War.

President Eisenhower was the first to refer to countries in danger of Communist takeover as dominoes, in response to a journalist's question about Indochina in an April 7, 1954, news conference, though he did not use the term "domino theory".[15] If Communists succeeded in taking over the rest of Indochina, Eisenhower argued, local groups would then have the encouragement, material support and momentum to take over Burma, Thailand, Malaya and Indonesia; all of these countries had large popular Communist movements and insurgencies within their borders at the time.

In May 1954, the Viet Minh, a Communist and nationalist army, defeated French troops in the Battle of Dien Bien Phu and took control of what became North Vietnam.[16] This caused the French to fully withdraw from the region then known as French Indochina, a process they had begun earlier.[17] The regions were then divided into four independent countries (North Vietnam, South Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos) after a deal was brokered at the 1954 Geneva Conference to end the First Indochina War.[18]

This would give them a geographical and economic strategic advantage, and it would make Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand the front-line defensive states. The loss of regions traditionally within the vital regional trading area of countries like Japan would encourage the front-line countries to compromise politically with communism.

Eisenhower's domino theory of 1954 was a specific description of the situation and conditions within Southeast Asia at the time, and he did not suggest a generalized domino theory as others did afterward.

The John F. Kennedy administration intervened in Vietnam in the early 1960s to, among other reasons, keep the South Vietnamese "domino" from falling. When Kennedy came to power there was concern that the communist-led Pathet Lao in Laos would provide the Viet Cong with bases, and that eventually they could take over Laos.

Arguments in favor of the domino theory

The primary evidence for the domino theory is the spread of communist rule in three Southeast Asian countries in 1975, following the communist takeover of Vietnam: South Vietnam (by the Viet Cong), Laos (by the Pathet Lao), and Cambodia (by the Khmer Rouge). It can further be argued that before they finished taking Vietnam prior to the 1950s, the communist campaigns did not succeed in Southeast Asia. Note the Malayan Emergency, the Hukbalahap Rebellion in the Philippines, and the increasing involvement with Communists by Sukarno of Indonesia from the late 1950s until he was deposed in 1967. All of these were unsuccessful Communist attempts to take over Southeast Asian countries which stalled when communist forces were still focused in Vietnam.

Walt Whitman Rostow and the then Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew have argued that the U.S. intervention in Indochina, by giving the nations of ASEAN time to consolidate and engage in economic growth, prevented a wider domino effect.[19] Meeting with President Gerald Ford and Henry Kissinger in 1975, Lee Kuan Yew argued that "there is a tendency in the U.S. Congress not to want to export jobs. But we have to have the jobs if we are to stop Communism. We have done that, moving from simple to more complex skilled labor. If we stop this process, it will do more harm than you can every[sic] repair with aid. Don't cut off imports from Southeast Asia."[20]

McGeorge Bundy argued that the prospects for a domino effect, though high in the 1950s and early 1960s, were weakened in 1965 when the Indonesian Communist Party was destroyed via CIA-supported death squads in the Indonesian genocide. However, proponents believe that the efforts during the containment (i.e., Domino Theory) period ultimately led to the demise of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

Some supporters of the domino theory note the history of communist governments supplying aid to communist revolutionaries in neighboring countries. For instance, China supplied the Viet Minh, the North Vietnamese army, with troops and supplies, and the Soviet Union supplied them with tanks and heavy weapons. The fact that the Pathet Lao and Khmer Rouge were both originally part of the Vietminh, not to mention Hanoi's support for both in conjunction with the Viet Cong, also give credence to the theory. The Soviet Union also heavily supplied Sukarno with military supplies and advisors from the time of the Guided Democracy in Indonesia, especially during and after the 1958 civil war in Sumatra.

Linguist and political theorist Noam Chomsky wrote that he believes that the domino theory is roughly accurate, although he put a more positive spin on the threat, writing that communist and socialist movements became popular in poorer countries because they brought economic improvements to those countries in which they took power. For this reason, he wrote, the U.S. put so much effort into suppressing so-called "people's movements" in Chile, Vietnam, Nicaragua, Laos, Grenada, El Salvador, Guatemala, etc. "The weaker and poorer a country is, the more dangerous it is as an example. If a tiny, poor country like Grenada can succeed in bringing about a better life for its people, some other place that has more resources will ask, 'Why not us?'" Chomsky refers to this as the "threat of a good example".[21]

Applications to communism outside Southeast Asia

Michael Lind has argued that though the domino theory failed regionally, there was a global wave, as communist or Marxist–Leninist regimes came to power in Benin, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Cape Verde, Mozambique, Angola, Afghanistan, Grenada, and Nicaragua during the 1970s. The global interpretation of the domino effect relies heavily upon the "prestige" interpretation of the theory, meaning that the success of Communist revolutions in some countries, though it did not provide material support to revolutionary forces in other countries, did contribute morale and rhetorical support.

In this vein, Argentine revolutionary Che Guevara wrote an essay, the "Message to the Tricontinental", in 1967, calling for "two, three ... many Vietnams" across the world.[22] Historian Max Boot wrote, "In the late 1970s, America's enemies seized power in countries from Mozambique to Iran to Nicaragua. American hostages were seized aboard the SS Mayaguez (off Cambodia) and in Tehran. The Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan. There is no obvious connection with the Vietnam War, but there is little doubt that the defeat of a superpower encouraged our enemies to undertake acts of aggression that they might otherwise have shied away from."[23]

In addition, this theory can be further bolstered by the rise in terrorist incidents by left-wing terrorist groups in Western Europe, funded in part by Communist governments, between the 1960s and 1980s.[24][25][26] In Italy, this includes the kidnapping and assassination of former Italian Prime Minister Aldo Moro, and the kidnapping of former US Brigadier General James L. Dozier, by the Red Brigades.

In West Germany, this includes the terrorist actions of the Red Army Faction. In the far east the Japanese Red Army carried out similar acts. All four, as well as others worked with various Arab and Palestinian terrorists, which like the red brigades were backed by the Soviet Bloc.

In the 1977 Frost/Nixon interviews, Richard Nixon defended America's destabilization of the Salvador Allende regime in Chile on domino theory grounds. Borrowing a metaphor he had heard, he stated that a Communist Chile and Cuba would create a "red sandwich" that could entrap Latin America between them.[27] In the 1980s, the domino theory was used again to justify the Reagan administration's interventions in Central America and the Caribbean region.

In his memoirs, former Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith described the successive rise of authoritarian left-wing governments in Sub-Saharan Africa during decolonization as "the communists' domino tactic".[28] The establishment of pro-communist governments in Tanzania (1961–64) and Zambia (1964) and explicitly Marxist–Leninist governments in Angola (1975), Mozambique (1975), and eventually Rhodesia itself (in 1980)[29] are cited by Smith as evidence of "the insidious encroachment of Soviet imperialism down the continent".[30]

Other applications

Hosni Mubarak facing the Tunisia domino effect
Political cartoon by Carlos Latuff applying the domino theory to the Arab Spring.

Some foreign policy analysts in the United States have referred to the potential spread of both Islamic theocracy and liberal democracy in the Middle East as two different possibilities for a domino theory. During the Iran–Iraq War the United States and other western nations supported Ba'athist Iraq, fearing the spread of Iran's radical theocracy throughout the region. In the 2003 invasion of Iraq, some neoconservatives argued that when a democratic government is implemented, it would then help spread democracy and liberalism across the Middle East. This has been referred to as a "reverse domino theory,"[31] or a "democratic domino theory,"[32] so called because its effects are considered positive, not negative, by Western democratic states.

See also

Domino effect

References

  1. ^ Leeson, Peter T.; Dean, Andrea (2009). "The Democratic Domino Theory". American Journal of Political Science. 53 (3): 533–551. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00385.x.
  2. ^ "The Quotable Quotes of Dwight D. Eisenhower". National Park Service. December 5, 2013. Archived from the original on 2013-03-28. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  3. ^ Mark Kramer (April 30, 2010). "STALIN, SOVIET POLICY, AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF A COMMUNIST BLOC IN EASTERN EUROPE, 1944-1953" (PDF). Stanford University. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 21, 2013.
  4. ^ "The Iron Curtain: Winston S. Churchill, "The Sinews of Peace," speech, 1946". The International Churchill Society. 2017. Archived from the original on 2017-01-28. Retrieved 2017-01-09.
  5. ^ Daniel S. Margolies (2012). A Companion to Harry S. Truman. books.Google.com. pp. 372, 373. ISBN 978-1444331417.
  6. ^ "The Truman Doctrine, 1947". United States Department of State Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs. December 5, 2013. Archived from the original on 2017-05-16. Retrieved 2017-06-14.
  7. ^ "Kennan and Containment, 1947". United States Department of State Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs. December 5, 2013. Archived from the original on 2017-06-28. Retrieved 2017-06-14.
  8. ^ Kennan, George (July 1947). "The Sources of Soviet Conduct". Foreign Affairs. Archived from the original on 2013-12-12. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  9. ^ John Lukacs (2009). George Kennan: A Study of Character. Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0300143065.
  10. ^ Senem Üstün; The Turkish Yearbook of International Relations (1997). "TURKEY AND THE MARSHALL PLAN: STRIVE FOR AID" (PDF). Ankara University. pp. 31–52.
  11. ^ "The Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan". United States Department of State Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs. December 5, 2013. Archived from the original on 2017-05-12. Retrieved 2017-06-14.
  12. ^ "Mao Zedong outlines the new Chinese government". History Channel. December 5, 2013. Archived from the original on 2013-11-02. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  13. ^ a b "The Chinese Revolution of 1949". United States Department of State Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs. Archived from the original on 2017-05-19. Retrieved 2017-06-14.
  14. ^ Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation, pg. 230, Raymond Tanter, Macmillan, 1999
  15. ^ Dwight D. Eisenhower: "The President's News Conference Archived 2017-12-01 at the Wayback Machine," April 7, 1954. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The Presidency Project. Retrieved 28 Nov. 2017.
  16. ^ University of Central Arkansas. "11. French Indochina/Vietnam (1941-1954)". uca.edu. Archived from the original on 2014-05-17. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  17. ^ "1954 DIEN BIEN PHU". Northern Virginia Community College. Archived from the original on 2013-06-01. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  18. ^ "1954: Peace deal ends Indo-China war". BBC. July 21, 1954. Archived from the original on 2013-01-20. Retrieved 2013-12-05.
  19. ^ Lee, Kuan Yew (2000). From Third World to First: The Singapore Story - 1965-2000. New York: Harper Collins. p. 467,573. ISBN 0-06-019776-5.
  20. ^ Ford, Kissinger, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew - May 8, 1975 (Gerald Ford Library), pg. 7
  21. ^ "The Threat of a Good Example" Archived 2015-07-24 at the Wayback Machine, Noam Chomsky
  22. ^ "Rough Draft of History: 'All Right, Let's Get the @#!*% Out of Here'" Archived 2005-11-26 at the Wayback Machine, Richard Gott, August 11, 2005
  23. ^ "Another Vietnam?" Archived 2017-07-09 at the Wayback Machine, Max Boot, The Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2007
  24. ^ "KGB Active Measures". Archived from the original on 2015-06-29. Retrieved 2015-06-27.
  25. ^ "Red Army Faction". Archived from the original on 2015-06-29. Retrieved 2015-06-27.
  26. ^ "Brigate Rosse". Archived from the original on 2015-06-29. Retrieved 2015-06-27.
  27. ^ The Last Years of the Monroe Doctrine, 1945-1993, p. 133 Gaddis Smith
  28. ^ Smith, Ian (2008). Bitter Harvest: Zimbabwe and the Aftermath of Its Independence. London: John Blake Publishing. p. 280. ISBN 978-1-84358-548-0.
  29. ^ Smith 2008: 147
  30. ^ Smith 2008: 183
  31. ^ "The War and the Peace" Archived 2007-06-24 at the Wayback Machine, Robert Wright, Slate, April 1, 2003
  32. ^ Reynolds, Paul (April 10, 2003). "The 'democratic domino' theory". BBC News. Archived from the original on 2016-10-03. Retrieved 2016-09-28.
ASEAN Declaration

The ASEAN Declaration or Bangkok Declaration is the founding document of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It was signed in Bangkok on 8 August 1967 by the five ASEAN founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand as a display of solidarity against communist expansion in Vietnam and communist insurgency within their own borders. It states the basic principles of ASEAN: co-operation, amity, and non-interference. The date is now celebrated as ASEAN Day.

Bolland

Bolland is a surname. Notable people with the surname include:

Adrienne Bolland (1896–1975), French test pilot; first woman to fly over the Andes

Brian Bolland (born 1951), British comics artist

C. J. Bolland (born 1971), English electronic-music producer

David Bolland (born 1986), Canadian professional ice hockey player

Gerardus Johannes Petrus Josephus Bolland (1854–1922), Dutch philosopher, scholar, and linguist

Gordon Bolland (born 1943), English professional football player and manager

Janice Bolland (born 1966), American cyclist

Jasper Bolland (born 1986), Dutch professional football player

Jean Bolland (1596–1665), Belgian Jesuit priest and hagiographer

Kevin Bolland (born 1959), American race car driver

Marc Bolland (born 1959), Dutch businessman, former CEO of Marks & Spencer

Marc Bolland (politician) (born 1963), Belgian politician

Mark William Bolland (born 1966), Deputy Private Secretary to the Prince of Wales 1998-2002

Martin Bolland (born 1956), British businessman.

Pat Bolland (born 1958), Canadian business television commentator

Paul Bolland (politician) (born 1939), Belgian politician

Paul Bolland (born 1979), English professional football player

Phil Bolland (born 1967), English professional football player

Brothers Rob and Ferdi Bolland (born 1955 and 1956), composers and music producers, who recorded as "Bolland" and "Bolland & Bolland"

William Bolland (1772–1840), lawyer and bibliophile

William Procter Bolland (1815-1863), cricketer

Domino Theory (album)

Domino Theory is the fourteenth studio album by Weather Report, released in February 1984. It is the second album to feature the Hakim-Bailey-Rossy rhythm section.

Eisenhower Doctrine

The Eisenhower Doctrine was a policy enunciated by Dwight D. Eisenhower on January 5, 1957, within a "Special Message to the Congress on the Situation in the Middle East". Under the Eisenhower Doctrine, a Middle Eastern country could request American economic assistance or aid from U.S. military forces if it was being threatened by armed aggression. Eisenhower singled out the Soviet threat in his doctrine by authorizing the commitment of U.S. forces "to secure and protect the territorial integrity and political independence of such nations, requesting such aid against overt armed aggression from any nation controlled by international communism". The phrase "international communism" made the doctrine much broader than simply responding to Soviet military action. A danger that could be linked to communists of any nation could conceivably invoke the doctrine.

Johnson Doctrine

The Johnson Doctrine, enunciated by U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson after the United States' intervention in the Dominican Republic in 1965, declared that domestic revolution in the Western Hemisphere would no longer be a local matter when "the object is the establishment of a Communist dictatorship". It is an extension of the Eisenhower and Kennedy Doctrines.

Laredo (album)

Laredo is the ninth studio album released by American country music artist Steve Wariner. His last release for MCA Records, it produced three chart singles on the Billboard country charts: "The Domino Theory" at #7, "Precious Thing" at #8, and "There for Awhile" at #17. After the final single charted, Wariner was dropped from MCA's roster. He later signed to Arista Records in 1991 for the release of his next album, 1991's I Am Ready.

Tracks 1, 6, 8, and 9 were produced by Randy Scruggs, tracks 2, 3, and 7 by Tony Brown, and tracks 4, 5, and 10 by Garth Fundis.

Nixon Doctrine

The Nixon Doctrine (also known as the Guam Doctrine) was put forth during a press conference in Guam on July 25, 1969 by US President Richard Nixon and later formalized in his speech on Vietnamization on November 3, 1969. According to Gregg Brazinsky, Nixon stated that "the United States would assist in the defense and developments of allies and friends", but would not "undertake all the defense of the free nations of the world." This doctrine meant that each ally nation was in charge of its own security in general, but the United States would act as a nuclear umbrella when requested. The Doctrine argued for the pursuit of peace through a partnership with American allies. The Nixon Doctrine implied the intentions of Nixon shifting the direction on international policies in Asia, especially aiming for "Vietnamization of the Vietnam War."

The Domino Theory

"The Domino Theory" is a song written by Bill LaBounty and Beckie Foster, and recorded by American country music artist Steve Wariner. It was released in March 1990 as the first single from the album Laredo. The song reached #7 on the Billboard Hot Country Singles & Tracks chart.

Truman Doctrine

The Truman Doctrine was an American foreign policy whose stated purpose was to counter Soviet geopolitical expansion during the Cold War. It was announced to Congress by President Harry S. Truman on March 12, 1947, and further developed on July 12, 1948, when he pledged to contain threats in Greece and Turkey. Direct American military force was usually not involved, but Congress appropriated financial aid to support the economies and militaries of Greece and Turkey. More generally, the Truman Doctrine implied American support for other nations allegedly threatened by Soviet communism. The Truman Doctrine became the foundation of American foreign policy, and led, in 1949, to the formation of NATO, a military alliance that is still in effect. Historians often use Truman's speech to date the start of the Cold War.

Truman told Congress that "it must be the policy of the United States to support free people who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures." Truman contended that because totalitarian regimes coerced free peoples, they automatically represented a threat to international peace and the national security of the United States. Truman made the plea in the midst of the Greek Civil War (1946–49). He argued that if Greece and Turkey did not receive the aid, they would inevitably fall to communism with grave consequences throughout the region. Because Turkey and Greece were historic rivals, it was considered necessary to help both equally even though the crisis in Greece was far more intense.

Critics of the policy have observed that the governments of Greece and Turkey were themselves far from democratic at this time, and neither were facing Soviet subversion in the spring of 1949. Historian Eric Foner writes that the Doctrine "set a precedent for American assistance to anticommunist regimes throughout the world, no matter how undemocratic, and for the creation of a set of global military alliances directed against the Soviet Union."For years, the United Kingdom had supported Greece, but was now near bankruptcy and was forced to radically reduce its involvement. In February 1947, Britain formally requested for the United States to take over its role in supporting the royalist Greek government. The policy won the support of Republicans who controlled Congress and involved sending $400 million in American money but no military forces to the region. The effect was to end the Greek revolt, and in 1952, both Greece and Turkey joined NATO, a military alliance, to guarantee their stability.

The Truman Doctrine was informally extended to become the basis of American Cold War policy throughout Europe and around the world. It shifted American foreign policy toward the Soviet Union from anti-fascism ally to a policy of containment of Soviet expansion as advocated by diplomat George Kennan. It was distinguished from rollback by implicitly tolerating the previous Soviet takeovers in Eastern Europe.

Ulbricht Doctrine

The Ulbricht Doctrine, named after East German leader Walter Ulbricht, was the assertion that normal diplomatic relations between East Germany and West Germany could occur only if both states fully recognised each other's sovereignty. That contrasted with the Hallstein Doctrine, a West German policy which insisted that West Germany was the only legitimate German state.

East Germany gained acceptance of its view from fellow Communist states, such as Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, which all agreed not to normalise relations with West Germany until it recognised East German sovereignty.

West Germany eventually abandoned its Hallstein Doctrine, instead adopting the policies of Ostpolitik. In December 1972, a Basic Treaty between East and West Germany was signed that reaffirmed two German states as separate entities. The treaty also allowed the exchange of diplomatic missions and the entry of both German states to the United Nations as full members.

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