Convention bounce

A convention bounce or convention bump refers to an increase in support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised national convention of their party.[1] A presumptive nominee for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his or her pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions.[2]

Reagan 1980 GOP
Ronald Reagan addresses the 1980 GOP convention. Reagan saw a big boost in the polls after his acceptance speech, but his opponent, President Jimmy Carter, got an equally large bump after his convention four weeks later.

History of convention bounces

Bill Clinton benefited from one of the largest bumps in history after the Democratic National Convention in 1992, climbing by as many as 30 points in the polls, however this was assisted by Independent Ross Perot, who at the time was polling at 20%, withdrawing from the race during the Democratic convention.[3] Then-President George H.W. Bush's convention bounce was weak by comparison, some party leaders blaming former primary challenger Pat Buchanan's fiery and divisive speech, which aired in primetime due to a scheduling delay. Four years later, Bob Dole got a big bounce after the Republican convention, but quickly fizzled. However, Al Gore's 2000 bounce endured for weeks. Prior to the Democratic convention, Gore was behind Texas Gov. George W. Bush by as many as 16 points,[4] but was in a statistical tie with the Republican the weekend after his acceptance speech.[4][5] To the bafflement of political pundits, Democratic candidate John Kerry did not get a convention bounce in 2004,[6] despite the unpopularity of incumbent George W. Bush.

Polls indicated a small bounce for 2008 Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama after his party's convention in August,[7] but as expected, much of it evaporated during and after the Republican convention the week following, yielding GOP candidate John McCain a small lead in several polls.[8][9] Nielsen ratings revealed that year's party conventions to be the most-watched ever, with the Republican convention narrowly trumping the Democrats'.[10] The RealClearPolitics polling index revealed the 2012 convention bounces for President Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney to be comparably smaller than in past elections.[11] Though Romney pulled even with Obama during that year's Republican convention at the end of August, Obama opened up a three- or four-point lead during the Democratic convention the week after.[11]

In 2016, news sources and polls differed greatly on the size of the convention bounces received by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton after their respective conventions;[12][13][14][15] however, the RealClearPolitics polling index showed both candidates trending upward leading up to and after their acceptance speeches.[16] Clinton's bounce lasted somewhat longer than Trump's.[16]

References

  1. ^ "U.S. Elections Glossary & Terms". All American Patriots. September 2004. Retrieved 2009-06-20.
  2. ^ Tom Holbrook: Convention Bumps
  3. ^ AP: Post-convention bounce averages 10 points Archived September 2, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ a b Gore Gets Convention Bounce, but Will Fickle Figures Last?. New York Times. 2000-08-23.
  5. ^ Convention Bounce Gives Gore 5-Point Lead. ABC News. 2000-08-21.
  6. ^ CBS News: No Bounce for Kerry
  7. ^ Politico: Obama's bounce smaller than others
  8. ^ Gallup: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead
  9. ^ USA Today Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
  10. ^ Associated Press: McCain, Obama tied in TV audiences
  11. ^ a b General Election: Romney vs. Obama. RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2012-10-08.
  12. ^ Agiesta, Jennifer (July 25, 2016). "Donald Trump bounces into the lead". CNN. Retrieved July 25, 2016.
  13. ^ Hartig, Hannah. "Poll: No Post-Convention Bounce for Donald Trump". NBC. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  14. ^ Rappeport, Alan (1 August 2016). "New Poll Reflects a Post-Convention Bounce for Hillary Clinton". The New York Times. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
  15. ^ "CNN/ORC Poll" (PDF). CNN. 1 August 2016. Retrieved 2 August 2016.
  16. ^ a b General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2019-02-05.
1808 United States presidential election

The United States presidential election of 1808 was the sixth quadrennial presidential election, held from Friday, November 4, to Wednesday, December 7, 1808. The Democratic-Republican candidate James Madison defeated Federalist candidate Charles Cotesworth Pinckney decisively. Madison's victory made him the first individual to succeed a president of the same party.

Madison had served as Secretary of State since President Thomas Jefferson took office in 1801. Jefferson, who had declined to run for a third term, threw his strong support behind Madison, a fellow Virginian. Sitting Vice President George Clinton and former Ambassador James Monroe both challenged Madison for leadership of the party, but Madison won his party's nomination and Clinton was re-nominated as vice president. The Federalists chose to re-nominate Pinckney, a former ambassador who had served as the party's 1804 nominee.

Despite the unpopularity of the Embargo Act of 1807, Madison won the vast majority of electoral votes outside of the Federalist stronghold of New England. Clinton received six electoral votes for president from his home state of New York. This election was the first of two instances in American history in which a new president was selected but the incumbent vice president won re-election, the other being in 1828.

1812 United States presidential election

The United States presidential election of 1812, the seventh quadrennial American presidential election, was held from Friday, October 30, 1812 to Wednesday, December 2, 1812. Taking place in the shadow of the War of 1812, incumbent Democratic-Republican President James Madison defeated DeWitt Clinton, who drew support from dissident Democratic-Republicans in the North as well as Federalists. It was the first presidential election to be held during a major war involving the United States.Northern Democratic-Republicans had long been dissatisfied by the Southern dominance of their party, and DeWitt Clinton's uncle, Vice President George Clinton, had unsuccessfully challenged Madison for the party's 1808 presidential nomination. While the May 1812 Democratic-Republican congressional nominating caucus re-nominated Madison, the party's New York caucus, also held in May, nominated Clinton for president. After the United States declared war on the United Kingdom in June 1812, Clinton sought to create a coalition of anti-war Democratic-Republicans and Federalists. With Clinton in the race, the Federalist Party declined to formally put forth a nominee, hoping its members would vote for Clinton, but they did not formally endorse him, fearing that an explicit endorsement of Clinton would hurt the party's fortunes in other races. Federalist Jared Ingersoll of Pennsylvania became Clinton's de facto running mate.

Despite Clinton's success at attracting Federalist support, Madison was re-elected with 50.4 percent of the popular vote to his opponent's 47.6%, making the 1812 election the closest election up to that point in the popular vote. Clinton won the Federalist bastion of New England as well as three Mid-Atlantic states, but Madison dominated the South and took Pennsylvania. Though Madison won a relatively comfortable victory in the electoral vote, this was the most closely contested election held between 1800 and 1824.

1972 Democratic National Convention

The 1972 Democratic National Convention was the presidential nominating convention of the Democratic Party for the 1972 presidential election. It was held at Miami Beach Convention Center in Miami Beach, Florida, on July 10 – 13, 1972. Lawrence F. O'Brien served as permanent chairman of the convention, while Yvonne Braithwaite Burke served as vice-chair, becoming the first African American and the first woman of color to hold that position. On the last day of the convention, Lawrence F. O'Brien departed and Burke was left to preside for about fourteen hours.The convention nominated Senator George McGovern of South Dakota for President and Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri for Vice President. Eagleton withdrew from the race just 19 days later after it was disclosed that he had previously undergone mental health treatment, including electroshock therapy, and he was replaced on the ballot by Sargent Shriver of Maryland, a Kennedy in-law.

The convention, which has been described as "a disastrous start to the general election campaign", was one of the most unusual—perhaps the most contentious in the history of the Democratic Party since 1924—with sessions beginning in the early evening and lasting until sunrise the next morning. Previously excluded political activists gained influence at the expense of elected officials and traditional core Democratic constituencies such as organized labor. A protracted vice presidential nominating process delayed McGovern's acceptance speech (which he considered "the best speech of his life") until 2:48 a.m.—after most television viewers had gone to bed. Hunter S. Thompson covered this convention in detail in several articles and in Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72.

1992 Democratic National Convention

The 1992 National Convention of the U.S. Democratic Party nominated Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas for President and Senator Al Gore from Tennessee for Vice President; Clinton announced Gore as his running-mate on July 9, 1992. The convention was held at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York from July 13 to July 16, 1992. The Clinton-Gore ticket then faced and defeated their Republican opponents, President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle as well as the independent ticket of Ross Perot and James Stockdale in the 1992 presidential election.

The convention's keynote speaker was Georgia Governor Zell Miller who said, "Not all of us can be born rich, handsome, and lucky, and that's why we have a Democratic Party" and added,

"Our Commander in Chief talks like Dirty Harry but acts like Barney Fife." Other notable speakers included Democratic National Committee Chair Ron Brown, Elizabeth Glaser, and New York Governor Mario Cuomo.

The convention, organized by chairman Ron Brown, was seen as a great success. Unlike some earlier Democratic conventions, it had been well planned and run with few gaffes or errors, as even Republicans conceded. As Clinton finished his acceptance speech Fleetwood Mac's "Don't Stop", which would become the theme song of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, was played several times during the balloon drop and celebration.

Clinton received a significant poll bounce from the convention, due to both the perceived success of the convention, as well as Ross Perot announcing he was withdrawing from the campaign just as the convention was ending (Perot got back into the race in October).

The convention bounce gave the Clinton/Gore ticket a lead that only shrank significantly when Ross Perot re-entered the race. Clinton and Gore went on to defeat President Bush and Vice-President Quayle, as well as independent candidate Ross Perot and his running mate, James Stockdale, in the general election.

1992 United States presidential election

The 1992 United States presidential election was the 52nd quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 3, 1992. Democratic Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush, independent businessman Ross Perot of Texas, and a number of minor candidates.

Bush had alienated many of the conservatives in his party by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, but he fended off a primary challenge from conservative commentator Pat Buchanan. Bush's popularity after his success in the Gulf War dissuaded high-profile Democratic candidates like Mario Cuomo from entering the 1992 Democratic primaries. Clinton, a leader of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, established himself as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination by sweeping the Super Tuesday primaries. He defeated former & future Governor of California Jerry Brown, former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas, and other candidates to win his party's nomination, and chose Senator Al Gore as his running mate. Billionaire Ross Perot launched an independent campaign, emphasizing his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and his plan to reduce the national debt.

The economy was in recession and Bush's greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the Gulf War. Perot led in several polls taken in June 1992, but severely damaged his candidacy by temporarily dropping out of the race in July. The Bush campaign criticized Clinton's character and emphasized Bush's foreign policy successes, while Clinton focused on the economy.

Clinton won a plurality in the popular vote and a majority of the electoral vote, breaking a streak of three straight Republican victories. Clinton swept the Northeastern United States, marking the start of Democratic dominance in the region in presidential elections, while also performing well in the Midwest and the West. Along with Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford, Bush is one of three incumbent presidents since World War II to be defeated in the general election. Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote, the highest share of the vote won by a candidate outside of the two major parties since 1912. Although he failed to win any electoral votes, Perot found support in every state, and Clinton's home state of Arkansas was the lone state to give a majority of its vote to any candidate.

2004 Democratic National Convention

The 2004 Democratic National Convention convened from July 26 to 29, 2004 at the FleetCenter (now the TD Garden) in Boston, Massachusetts, and nominated Senator John Kerry from Massachusetts for President and Senator John Edwards from North Carolina for Vice President, respectively, in the 2004 presidential election.

The 2004 Democratic National Convention included the featured keynote speech of Barack Obama, then a candidate for the United States Senate from Illinois, who would later go on to become the 44th President of the United States in 2009. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson served as chairman of the convention, while former presidential advisor to Bill Clinton, Lottie Shackelford, served as vice chairwoman.

The 2004 Democratic National Convention marked the formal end of the active primary election season, although all meaningful primary elections had finished months earlier. After the convention, John Kerry and John Edwards were defeated by the incumbent George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in the general election.

2016 Democratic National Convention

The 2016 Democratic National Convention was a presidential nominating convention, held at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from July 25 through to July 28, 2016. The convention gathered delegates of the Democratic Party, the majority of them elected through a preceding series of primaries and caucuses, to nominate a candidate for president and vice president in the 2016 United States presidential election. Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 54% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call, defeating primary rival Senator Bernie Sanders, who received 46% of votes from delegates, and becoming the first female candidate to be formally nominated for president by a major political party in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia, was confirmed by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

Delegates at the convention also adopted a party platform, through a voice vote, to take to the 2016 elections, touted as the "most progressive" platform in the Democratic Party's history. The progressive shift was often credited to Sanders and the influence of platform-committee members appointed by him. The platform featured a focus on economic issues, such as Wall Street reform, stronger financial regulation, and raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Liberal stances on social issues, such as a call for criminal justice reform and an end to private prisons, expansion of Social Security, and the abolition of the death penalty, also feature in the platform. Many have noted, however, that manifestos tend to mean little in the context of American politics and politicians seldom remain faithful to them, leading to the view that the platform was designed to attract Bernie Sanders voters rather than to be seriously implemented by a Clinton administration.

Senator Elizabeth Warren delivered the keynote address of the convention, with First Lady Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders serving as headlining speakers on the first day. Former President Bill Clinton served as headlining speaker on the convention's second day, while Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama headlined on day three. Tim Kaine gave his vice presidential nomination acceptance speech on the third day of the convention, while Chelsea Clinton introduced Hillary Clinton to give her presidential nomination acceptance speech on the final day. Clinton's speech was generally well received, and she would go on to have a 7% convention bounce in national polling. Various performers also appeared during the convention, including Demi Lovato, Alicia Keys, Lenny Kravitz and Katy Perry. The live announcer for the four-day event was Sylvia Villagran. Overall attendance at the convention was estimated to be around 50,000, according to Anna Adams-Sarthou, a representative of the DNC Host Committee.The convention was not without controversy, as it was subject to various conflicts between supporters of the presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders and the Democratic Party. In the week prior to the convention, various emails from the Democratic National Committee, the governing body of the Democratic Party, were leaked and published, showing bias against the Sanders' campaign on the part of the Committee and its chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Schultz subsequently resigned as chair of the Committee, and thus as chair of the Democratic National Convention, with Congresswoman Marcia Fudge taking up the role of Convention chair. Some delegates in support of Sanders staged protests both outside and on the floor of the convention, opposing the nomination of Clinton and Kaine as the party's nominees for president and vice president, respectively.

Clinton and Kaine would go on to lose the general election to Republican ticket of Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence in the electoral college, despite winning the popular vote.

2016 Republican National Convention

The 2016 Republican National Convention, in which delegates of the United States Republican Party chose the party's nominees for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, was held July 18–21, 2016, at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The event marked the third time Cleveland has hosted the Republican National Convention and the first since 1936. In addition to determining the party's national ticket, the convention ratified the party platform.There were 2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention, with a simple majority of 1,237 required to win the presidential nomination. Most of those delegates were bound for the first ballot of the convention based on the results of the 2016 Republican presidential primaries. On July 19, 2016, the convention formally nominated Donald Trump for President and Indiana Governor Mike Pence for Vice President. Trump and Pence went on to win the general election, defeating the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine.

George McGovern 1972 presidential campaign

The George McGovern presidential campaign of 1972 began when United States Senator George McGovern from South Dakota launched his second candidacy for the Presidency of the United States in an ultimately unsuccessful bid to win the 1972 presidential election, winning only in the District of Columbia and the state of Massachusetts. McGovern vied to become the first South Dakota native to become president.

George W. Bush 2000 presidential campaign

The 2000 presidential campaign of George W. Bush, the 46th Governor of Texas, was formally launched on June 14, 1999 as Governor Bush, the eldest son of former President George H.W. Bush announced his intention to seek the Republican Party nomination for the presidency of the United States in the 2000 presidential election.

Bush began the campaign as the front runner among Republicans due to his name recognition, impressive fundraising, and control of the governorship of Texas and polls starting in 1997 showed Bush leading every opponent by double digits. The main challenger to Bush was Senator John McCain, who appealed to moderate Republicans, independents and the press due to his reformist policies. After McCain's upset victory in New Hampshire Bush won the South Carolina primary and following it would engage in a bitter smear campaign.

Bush won the majority of the primaries and after the March 2000 Super Tuesday contests he was well ahead in delegates of both McCain and Alan Keyes. On August 3, 2000 Bush won the Republican nomination at the Republican Convention with the support of 2,058 delegates. Dick Cheney, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense, was nominated as vice president despite Cheney initially recommending former Missouri Senator John Danforth.Throughout the majority of the primary and general campaign seasons Bush was leading Gore in the polls. On November 7, 2000, it was projected that Bush had won in Florida and its 25 electoral votes. Gore won the national popular vote but the Gore campaign lost the electoral college vote after a legal battle over disputed vote counts. Bush won the election on the electoral college vote of 271 to 266.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Rodham Clinton (née Hillary Diane Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer and public speaker. She was First Lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001, the United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. Clinton was the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States in the 2016 election, the first woman nominated by a major U.S. political party.

Raised in the Chicago suburb of Park Ridge, Clinton graduated from Wellesley College in 1969 and earned a Juris Doctor from Yale Law School in 1973. After serving as a congressional legal counsel, she moved to Arkansas and married future president Bill Clinton in 1975; the two had met at Yale. In 1977, she co-founded Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families. She was appointed the first female chair of the Legal Services Corporation in 1978, and became the first female partner at Little Rock's Rose Law Firm the following year. As First Lady of Arkansas, she led a task force whose recommendations helped reform Arkansas's public schools.

As the first lady of the United States, Clinton advocated for gender equality and healthcare reform. Her marital relationship came under public scrutiny during the Lewinsky scandal, which led her to issue a statement that reaffirmed her commitment to the marriage. In 2000, Clinton was elected as the first female senator from New York. She was reelected to the Senate in 2006. Running for president in 2008, she won far more delegates than any previous female candidate, but lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama. During her tenure as U.S. secretary of state in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2013, Clinton responded to the Arab Spring by advocating military intervention in Libya. She helped to organize a diplomatic isolation and a regime of international sanctions against Iran in an effort to force curtailment of that country's nuclear program; this would eventually lead to the multinational Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement in 2015. Upon leaving her Cabinet position after Obama's first term, she wrote her fifth book and undertook speaking engagements.

Clinton made a second presidential run in 2016. She received the most votes and primary delegates in the 2016 Democratic primaries and formally accepted her party's nomination for president of the United States on July 28, 2016, with vice presidential running mate senator from Virginia Tim Kaine. She lost the presidential election to Republican opponent Donald Trump in the Electoral College, despite winning a plurality of the popular vote. She received more than 65 million votes, the 3rd-highest count in a U.S. presidential election, behind Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012. Following her loss, she wrote her third memoir, What Happened, and launched Onward Together, a political action organization dedicated to fundraising for progressive political groups.

Iowa caucuses

The Iowa caucuses are biennial electoral events for members of the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. state of Iowa. Unlike primary elections in most other U.S. states where registered voters go to polling places to cast ballots, Iowans instead gather at local caucus meetings to discuss and vote on the candidates. During both the presidential and midterm election seasons, registered Iowan voters vote in a per-precinct caucus for the party they are registered as a member. The caucuses are also held to select delegates to county conventions and party committees, among other party activities.The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy as the first major contest of the United States presidential primary season. Though the demographics of Iowa are not representative of the rest of the country, the caucuses are still seen as a strong indicator for how a presidential candidate will do in later contests. It can provide candidates with momentum going into the following contests. Candidates who do poorly in their caucus are likely to drop out in the following days.

Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign

The Mitt Romney presidential campaign of 2012 officially began on June 2, 2011, when former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney formally announced his candidacy for the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States, at an event in Stratham, New Hampshire. Having previously run in the 2008 Republican primaries, this was Romney's second campaign for the presidency.

He filed his organization with the Federal Elections Commission as an exploratory committee and announced the organization in a video message on April 11, 2011. He became the party's presumptive nominee with his victory in the Texas primary on May 29, 2012.

On August 11, 2012, in Norfolk, Virginia, Romney announced that Paul Ryan, the long-time U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, would be his running mate for vice president. (Later, in October 2015, he was elected Speaker of the House.)On August 30, 2012, in Tampa, Florida, Romney formally accepted the Republican Party's nomination at the 2012 Republican National Convention.Romney's campaign came to an end on November 6, 2012, upon defeat by incumbent President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election. Romney received 60,933,500 votes, or 47.2% of the total votes cast, winning 24 states and 206 electoral votes.

Had he won, Romney would have been the first Michigan native to serve as president (as Gerald Ford was born in Nebraska), and the second governor of Massachusetts to do so, after Calvin Coolidge. Ryan would have been the first vice president from Wisconsin.

Six years later, in November 2018, Romney was elected as U.S. Senator from Utah.

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016, despite losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. Media analysts differ as to why the polling industry was unable to correctly forecast the result. Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.

New Hampshire primary

The New Hampshire primary is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest (the first being the Iowa Caucuses) held in the United States every four years as part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held the subsequent November. Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives (along with the first caucus in Iowa). Spurred by the events of the 1968 election, reforms that began with the 1972 election elevated the two states' importance to the overall election, and began to receive as much media attention as all other state contests combined. Examples of this extraordinary coverage have been seen on the campuses of Dartmouth College and Saint Anselm College, as the colleges have held multiple national debates and have attracted media outlets like NPR, Fox News, CNN, NBC, and ABC. The publicity and momentum can be enormous from a decisive win by a frontrunner, or better-than-expected result in the New Hampshire primary. The upset or weak showing by a front-runner changes the calculus of national politics in a matter of hours, as happened in 1952 (D), 1968 (D), 1980 (R), and 2008 (D).

Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who excel in New Hampshire can become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.

Crucially, the New Hampshire primary is not a "closed primary," where voter participation is limited by voters' past or recent party registration. Instead, New Hampshire enables any voter who has been undeclared, or re-registers as undeclared (not registered with any party) to vote in either party's primary. This seemingly technical distinction can have big impacts on the primary, and how fluidly candidates do in the state (especially if only one party has a competitive primary in a given year, eliciting a greater likelihood that undeclared or less partisan voters will flood that party's primary, if they want to participate at all.) This system is not a fully open primary, because people who are registered with a party (Republican or Democratic) on voting day cannot vote in the other party's primary.

Post-presidency of Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton was the 42nd President of the United States, serving from 1993 to 2001. After he left office, he continued to be active in the public sphere, touring the world, writing books, and campaigning for Democrats, including his wife, Hillary Clinton, who served as the junior US Senator from New York between 2001 and 2009 and the 67th United States Secretary of State between 2009 and 2013 on her presidential campaigns in 2008, in which she was runner-up, and in 2016, when she lost the election to Donald Trump.

President of the United States

The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.

In contemporary times, the president is looked upon as one of the world's most powerful political figures as the leader of the only remaining global superpower. The role includes responsibility for the world's most expensive military, which has the second largest nuclear arsenal. The president also leads the nation with the largest economy by nominal GDP. The president possesses significant domestic and international hard and soft power.

Article II of the Constitution establishes the executive branch of the federal government. It vests the executive power of the United States in the president. The power includes the execution and enforcement of federal law, alongside the responsibility of appointing federal executive, diplomatic, regulatory and judicial officers, and concluding treaties with foreign powers with the advice and consent of the Senate. The president is further empowered to grant federal pardons and reprieves, and to convene and adjourn either or both houses of Congress under extraordinary circumstances. The president directs the foreign and domestic policies of the United States, and takes an active role in promoting his policy priorities to members of Congress. In addition, as part of the system of checks and balances, Article I, Section 7 of the Constitution gives the president the power to sign or veto federal legislation. The power of the presidency has grown substantially since its formation, as has the power of the federal government as a whole.Through the Electoral College, registered voters indirectly elect the president and vice president to a four-year term. This is the only federal election in the United States which is not decided by popular vote. Nine vice presidents became president by virtue of a president's intra-term death or resignation.Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 sets three qualifications for holding the presidency: natural-born U.S. citizenship; at least thirty-five years of age; and residency in the United States for at least fourteen years. The Twenty-second Amendment states that no person who has been elected to two presidential terms may be elected to a third. In all, 44 individuals have served 45 presidencies spanning 57 full four-year terms. Grover Cleveland served two non-consecutive terms, so he is counted twice, as both the 22nd and 24th president.Donald Trump of New York is the 45th and current president of the United States. He assumed office on January 20, 2017.

Scott Rasmussen

Scott William Rasmussen (born March 30, 1956) is an American political analyst and digital media entrepreneur. Rasmussen is the publisher of ScottRasmussen.com, a public opinion website that debuted in 2018 with research firm HarrisX and produces the Daily Tracking Poll. He also serves as Editor-at-Large for Ballotpedia, where he writes the Number of the Day Feature.Rasmussen was the founder of Rasmussen Reports, where he served as pollster and president for 10 years until leaving the company in 2013 to write. Earlier in his professional life, Rasmussen co-founded the sports network ESPN. After leaving Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Media Group, working as a political analyst, author, public speaker and columnist. He is also a Senior Fellow at The King’s College in New York City, where he is responsible for development at the Institute for Community Driven Solutions.Rasmussen is a New York Times bestselling author and speaker, and his political commentary is distributed through a nationally syndicated weekly newspaper column. His most recent book publication is entitled The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not and was released in 2018.

South Carolina primary

The South Carolina primary has become one of several key early-state presidential primaries in the process of the Democratic and Republican Parties choosing their respective general election nominees for President of the United States.

Historically, this primary election has been much more important in the Republican Party's nomination process, considered a firewall that could permanently eliminate any/all serious rivals to the winner. It is meant to force the various factions of the party to decide quickly on and unite behind a single candidate and avoid wasting precious time and resources on a drawn-out battle between their own candidates, that would divert the party's focus from working to defeat the Democrats' likely nominee.

Since its 1980 inception, the winner of the Republican South Carolina primary has always become the eventual Republican National Convention nominee for that fall's general election, with one exception, the 2012 primary, in which eventual Republican nominee Mitt Romney finished second, behind winner Newt Gingrich (who would go on to suspend his campaign before that summer's convention began).

South Carolina has cemented its place as the "First in the South" primary for both parties. For the Democrats, the 2008 primary took on added significance because it was the first nominating contest in that cycle in which a large percentage (55 percent, according to an exit poll) of primary voters were African Americans.The 2012 South Carolina primary was held on January 21 for Republicans, and on January 28 for Democrats. The 2016 primary was held on February 20 for Republicans, and on February 27 for Democrats.

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