Consumer confidence index

In the United States of America, the U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI) is an economic indicator published by The Conference Board to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the U.S. economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global consumer confidence is not measured. Country-by-country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends.[1]

In the United States The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, issues monthly measures of consumer confidence, based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of the consumption component level of the gross domestic product. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock-market prices.

The consumer confidence index started in 1967 and is benchmarked to 1985 = 100. This year was chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough. The index is calculated each month on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy. Opinions on current conditions make up 40% of the index, with expectations of future conditions comprising the remaining 60%. In the glossary on its website, The Conference Board defines the Consumer Confidence Survey as "a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions, with data available by age, income and region".

Another well-established index that measures consumer confidence in the United States of America is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, run by University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research.

Calculation

In simple terms, increased consumer confidence indicates economic growth in which consumers are spending money, indicating higher consumption. Decreasing consumer confidence implies slowing economic growth, and so consumers are likely to decrease their spending. The idea is that the more confident people feel about the economy and their jobs and incomes, the more likely they are to make purchases. Declining consumer confidence is a sign of slowing economic growth and may indicate that the economy is headed into trouble.

Each month The Conference Board surveys 5,000 US households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following:[2]

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Business conditions for the next six months
  3. Current employment conditions
  4. Employment conditions for the next six months
  5. Total family income for the next six months

Survey participants are asked to answer each question as "positive", "negative" or "neutral." The preliminary results from the consumer confidence survey are released on the last Tuesday of each month at 10am EST.

Once the data have been gathered, a proportion known as the "relative value" is calculated for each question separately. Each question's positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The relative value for each question is then compared against each relative value from 1985. This comparison of the relative values results in an "index value" for each question.

The index values for all five questions are then averaged together to form the consumer confidence index; the average of index values for questions one and three form the present situation index, and the average of index values for questions two, four and five form the expectations index. The data are calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country's nine census regions.

Usage

Manufacturers, retailers, banks and the government monitor changes in the CCI in order to factor in the data in their decision-making processes. While index changes of less than 5% are often dismissed as inconsequential, moves of 5% or more often indicate a change in the direction of the economy.

A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.

Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending.

Consumer-demand surveys versus consumer-confidence and -sentiment surveys

Consumer-demand surveys are interview-based statistical surveys that measure the percentage of households that will buy a car, white goods, PCs, TVs, home furnishings, kitchenware or toys in, for example, the next three-month period. The surveys provide a percentage of those who will purchase more, less or the same amount of food and clothing in the next three months than in the corresponding period the year before. If you ask people about their purchasing behavior within the coming six or 12 months, there will be more of those who “hope to be able to buy”, than if consumers are asked about what they will purchase in the next three months. The shorter the time spans, the closer to actual behavior.

Consumer-confidence and -sentiment surveys measure how people are doing financially, how they look at the overall economy of the country or business conditions in the country, if they think that the government is doing a good or a poor job and if people think that it is a good or a bad time to buy a car or to buy or sell a house.

When the business cycle is fairly stable, consumer demand surveys and consumer confidence and sentiment indices will often correlate closely and indicate the same direction of the economy, but in times with a high degree of economic or political uncertainty or during a prolonged crisis, the two types of consumer surveys might differ significantly. In 2011 the confidence and sentiment surveys went up from March to April, while consumer demand surveys dropped significantly. In August 2011 the confidence and sentiment surveys dropped significantly and stayed low during September and October, while consumer demand surveys showed resilience, a development confirmed later by official statistics.

Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan and the Conference Board both publish a monthly consumer confidence and attitude survey. The Institute for Business Cycle Analysis publishes a monthly consumer demand survey known as US Consumer Demand Indices.

In the United States

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
US consumer confidence index 1966–2012

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is the most widely accepted index among the United States media, businesspeople, and many consumers. The chart to the left shows the index over time from December 1966 to April 2012.

Other measures of consumer confidence in the United States

In addition to the Conference Board's CCI, other survey-based indices attempt to track consumer confidence in the U.S.:

  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. It uses an ongoing, nationally representative survey based on telephonic household interviews to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.
  • The Washington Post-ABC News Consumer Comfort Index is a consumer confidence index based on telephone interviews with 1,000 randomly selected adults over the previous four-week period. It asks respondents "to rate the condition of the national economy, the state of their personal finances and whether now is a good time to buy things".

[3]

Given the potential for sampling biases of individual survey reports, researchers and investors try sometimes to average the values of different index reports into a single aggregated measure of consumer confidence.

In India

The ZyFin India Consumer Outlook Index[4] is a monthly index of consumer sentiment in India. The COI is designed to provide reliable insights into the direction of the Indian national and regional economies. Released once a month, the index is computed from the results of a monthly survey of 4,000 consumers in 18 cities across India.

In the Republic of Ireland

KBC Bank Ireland (formerly IIB Bank) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (a think-tank) have published a monthly consumer sentiment index since January 1996.[5]

In Canada

The Conference Board of Canada's index of consumer confidence has been ongoing since 1980. It is constructed from responses to four attitudinal questions posed to a random sample of Canadian households. Those surveyed are asked to give their views about their households' current and expected financial positions and the short-term employment outlook. They are also asked to assess whether now is a good or a bad time to make a major purchase such as a house, car or other big-ticket items.

Consumer confidence index in Indonesia

Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey that has been conducted since October 1999 by Bank Indonesia.[6] The survey represents the consumer confidence about the overall economic condition, general price level, household income, and consumption plans three and six months ahead. Since January 2007, the survey is conducted with approximately 4,600 household respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities: Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, and Banten. At a significance level of 99%, the survey has a sampling error of 2%. Data canvassing run through interviews by phone and direct visits in particular cities that is based on rotational system. The Balance Score Method (net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where the index above 100 points indicates optimism (positive responses) and vice versa. The consumer confidence index (CCI), is an average of the current economic condition index (CECI) and consumer expectation index (CEI).

The CECI is made up of the average of current condition of several factors compared to six months ago

  1. Household income
  2. Right time to buy durable goods
  3. Unemployment

The CEI is made up from the average of future prospects of several factors

  1. Household income
  2. Overall economic condition
  3. Unemployment rate.

Other sources

Danareksa conducts a monthly consumer survey to produce the Consumer Confidence Index. [7]

References

  1. ^ Benjamin, Colin (30 October 2008). "Consumer Confidence - Global Monitor of Consumer Sentiment Index Reports and Country Update on Consumer Confidence Changes". Marshall Place Associates. Retrieved 24 February 2009.
  2. ^ "Consumer Confidence: An Online NewsHour Special Report". The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer. PBS. May 2001. Retrieved 24 February 2009.
  3. ^ "Washington Post-ABC News Consumer Comfort Index Survey". The Washington Post Company. Retrieved 24 February 2009.
  4. ^ ZyFin India Consumer Outlook Index
  5. ^ "Consumer Sentiment". Economic and Social Research Institute. Retrieved 24 February 2009.
  6. ^ Nurcahyo Heru Prasetyo, Ririn Yuliatiningsih. "BANK INDONESIA - CONSUMER SURVEY" (PDF). Bank Indonesia. Retrieved 26 February 2011.
  7. ^ Danareksa, Research Institute. "Consumer Confidence Index". Danareksa. Retrieved 26 February 2011.

External links

Canadian Index of Consumer Confidence

The Canadian Index of Consumer Confidence (ICC) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. In Canada consumer confidence is issued monthly by The Conference Board of Canada, an independent research organization, and is based telephone survey of 2,000 households.

Center for Survey Research

The Center for Survey Research at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, operated from July 1, 1996 to June 30, 2004, when the center closed.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. If the consumer has confidence in the immediate and near future economy and his/her personal finance, then the consumer will spend more than save.

When consumer confidence is high, consumers make more purchases. When confidence is low, consumers tend to save more and spend less. A month-to-month trend in consumer confidence reflects the outlook of consumers with respect to their ability to find and retain good jobs according to their perception of the current state of the economy and their personal financial situation.

Consumer confidence typically increases when the economy expands, and decreases when the economy contracts. In the United States, there is evidence that the measure is a lagging indicator of stock market performance.

Employee Confidence Index

The Employee Confidence Index is a measure of employees’ overall confidence in the economy, their employer, and their ability to find other employment. The Index, like other employee confidence studies, is designed to show how the supply and demand of labour in various industries effects employee confidence and satisfaction. Currently, the Employee Confidence Index is only published in the United States using data collected from American citizens.

Hurşit Güneş

Hursit Gunes (born 23 April 1957) is a Turkish politician and professor of Economics, who had served as deputy chairman of Republican People's Party (CHP); and he has been deputy of Kocaeli Province since 2011.He was born on to Turan Güneş and his wife Nermin Solmaz in Ankara, Turkey on 23 April 1957. After his high school education in Ankara College, he received his BA with honors in Economics and Politics from University of Kent at Canterbury in 1980. He later received his Magister in Scienta Economica degree from University of Wales, Cardiff. He started his academic career as a research assistant at Marmara University in 1984. Meanwhile, he received his PhD from Bosphorus University in 1988 with the thesis titled "The Determination and Control of Money Supply in Turkey".In 1986, he was invited to be one of founding members of European Economic Association, established in Belgium. In 1990, he won the European Integration Project Award given by EU, with two of his colleagues. He acted as the chief economic advisor for late Erdal İnönü during the DYP-SHP coalition government prepared the drafts of Competition Law and Consumer Protection Law.He was a visiting professor at University of Manchester in 1994. He was appointed as a full-professor by 1996. During 1995- 2002, he gave consultancy services to most financial institutions in the country. He was the chairman of Marsh Insurance Turkey during 2002-2007. He designed a banking simulation system interactive with macro-economic models and a real-time consumer confidence index for Turkey (CNBC-e CCI). He was also a columnist at the daily newspaper Milliyet during 2001-2010.He taught at Marmara University for more than 25 years on Monetary Economics for undergraduate students and Advanced Macro Theory for post-graduate students. He retired at the beginning of 2010, and started working at Bahçeşehir University.In December 2014, as a parliamentary debate was ongoing over getting exempted from military service by making payments, he proposed introduction of enforced conscription for women. The Republican People's Party declared that he was not taken to the party's candidate list for the general election to be held on 7 June.

Indian consumer confidence index

Consumer confidence is a key driver of economic growth and is widely considered a leading economic

indicator of household spending on consumption. Consumers tend to increase consumption when they feel

confident about the current and future economic situation of the country and their own financial conditions.

In economies such as India and the US, where personal consumption accounts for more than 60% and 70% of GDP respectively, consumer confidence has a particularly significant impact on the economy. Measuring it can provide critical insight into the economy's growth prospects. Consumer sentiment indices are essential tools used by global investors and will be an immense aid to individual and institutional investors in India.

National Central University

National Central University (NCU, Chinese: 國立中央大學, Kuo-Li Chung-yang Ta-hsüeh, or 中大, Chung-ta) was founded in 1915 with roots from 258 CE in mainland China. Founded in Nanjing in 1915, NCU was the leading academic center in southeast China; the phrase “North the Peking University, South the Central University” at that time revealed the significance of NCU. NCU was renamed Nanjing University in 1949, and the former campus has been used by Nanjing Institute of Technology, which was later renamed Southeast University since Nanjing University relocated in 1952. NCU was re-established in Taiwan in 1962. The school was initially located in Miaoli but relocated to Zhongli in 1968 and developed into a comprehensive university. It has become Taiwan's leading school in drama, film studies, cultural studies, and gender studies, Hakka studies, geophysics, space science, remote sensing, astronomy, optoelectronics, nanotechnology, and business management as well as the first university in Taiwan to research industrial economics and economic development (Taiwan's Consumer Confidence Index is released monthly by NCU). NCU is a member of AACSB. In 2001, NCU was selected by the Ministry of Education as one of the eleven research-oriented universities in Taiwan.

NCU now has eight colleges in different areas, including College of Liberal Arts, College of Science, College of Engineering, College of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, College of Biomedical Science and Engineering, College of Earth Sciences, College of Management, and College of Hakka Studies, also with areas in sociology, law and government studies, etc.

The undergraduate population is represented by the Associated Students of National Central University.

The Conference Board

The Conference Board, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit business membership and research group organization. It counts approximately 1,200 public and private corporations and other organizations as members, encompassing 60 countries. The Conference Board convenes conferences and peer-learning groups, conducts economic and business management research, and publishes several widely tracked economic indicators.

US Commercial Real Estate Index

The US Commercial Real Estate Index ("CREI") is designed to demonstrate the relative strength of the US Commercial Real Estate market. The index is composed of eight economic drivers and is calculated weekly.

The economic drivers behind the CREI are isolated into sub-indices that include the Employment Index, Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Credit Index, Consumer Confidence Index, Housing Index, Inflation Index, Income Index and the Retail Index.

In total, there are over 60 inputs in the US Commercial Real Estate Index all of which come from publicly released data. Most of these come from public sources that are listed below.

ADP

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The Conference Board

Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA)

Federal Reserve

Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Market Survey

National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT)

National Association of Realtors (NAR)

New York Stock Exchange

University of Michigan

United States Census Bureau

United States Department of Labor

United States Treasury

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in December 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are conducted of a contiguous United States sample. Fifty core questions are asked.The consumer confidence measures were devised in the late 1940s by Professor George Katona at the University of Michigan. They have now developed into an ongoing, nationally representative survey based on telephonic household interviews. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is developed from these interviews. The Index of Consumer Expectations (a sub-index of ICS) is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

VND Index

VND Index also known as the Trade Weighted Vietnam Dong Index, is a measure of the value of the Vietnamese đồng (VND) relative to majority of Vietnam's most significant trading partners.

Victor Zarnowitz

Victor Zarnowitz (born 1919 in Oświęcim Poland, d. 21 February 2009 in New York City) was a leading scholar on business cycles, indicators, and forecast evaluation. Zarnowitz was Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor to The Conference Board. He was Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

In 1939, he fled Poland to escape the Nazi invasion, but was imprisoned by the Soviet Russians and worked at a labor camp in Siberia. Zarnowitz earned his Ph.D. in economics (summa cum laude) at the University of Heidelberg in Germany in 1951. He came to the United States in 1952. In 1959 he moved to Chicago and became a professor at the University of Chicago.He was a Fellow of the National Association of Business Economists, Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and Honorary Member of the Center for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET). In 2001, he received the William F. Butler Memorial Award from the New York Association for Business Economists. His numerous papers and books include An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts (1967), The Business Cycle Today (1972), Orders, Production, and Investment (1973), and Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (1992). His most recent papers are "Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?" (1998), "Theory and History Behind Business Cycles" (1999), and "The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion" (2000).

He was notable as a researcher on the performance of economic forecasting, and he concluded that economic forecasters have little success in predicting business cycle turning points. He established that planners are better off using the average of forecasts, rather than relying on any individual forecast. This has become a common practice on the part of governments in the setting of their budgets.

Zarnowitz remained an active economist throughout his life. In 1999 he joined The Conference Board, the organization which publishes the Index of Leading Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index. He continued working five-day weeks until the day before he died, according to The Conference Board, and he was also an active member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His final decision with the committee was the determination that the Late-2000s recession had begun in December 2007. In 2008, Zarnowitz published a book about his experiences with Nazis and Russians, "Fleeing the Nazis, Surviving the Gulag, and Arriving in the Free World: My Life and Times," which received wide praise.The historical pattern in which deep recessions are usually followed by steep recoveries is known by economists as "the Zarnowitz rule".

Vietnam Bond Indexes

Vietnam Bond Indexes (also known as HNX Vietnam Bond Index) are the first and currently the only indexes of Vietnam listed bond market. They are used as a benchmark to evaluate the market value of all Vietnam bonds.

Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index

Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index (Vietnam CCI) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence of Vietnam, which is defined as the degree of optimism on their activities of savings and spending.

Vietnam Investor Confidence Index

The Vietnam Investor Confidence Index measures the attitude of both Vietnamese local and foreign investors (investing into Vietnam stock market) to risk.

Woori CBV Securities Corporation

Woori CBV Securities Corporation (formerly known as Bien Viet Securities) is Vietnam provider of financial and investment services. Woori CBV has been well known as the first and largest provider of Vietnam’s financial market indexes and economic indicators. Vietnam Securities Indexes is the first equity index that composes all stocks listed on the two exchanges in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam Finance Indexes family is the first family of Vietnam finance indexes to be sponsored and introduced by Bloomberg to global financial institutions. The index system developed by Woori CBV is the world's largest index family for Vietnam with over 450 equity indexes, 50 fixed income indexes, and over 50 indexes in other categories. The company's most known indexes include Vietnam Securities Indexes, Vietnam Bond Indexes, Vietnam Investor Confidence Index, VND Index, Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index.

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