Cold War II

Cold War II[1][2] (also called the New Cold War[3][4][5] or Second Cold War)[6][7] is a popular term for the ongoing state of political and military tension between opposing geopolitical power-blocs, with one bloc typically reported as being led by Russia and the other led by the United States, European Union, and NATO.[8] It is akin to the original Cold War that saw a stand-off and proxy wars between the Western Bloc led by the United States, and the Eastern Bloc led by the Soviet Union, Russia's predecessor. It may also refer to growing tensions between the United States and China.

Past usages

Past sources,[9][10][11] such as academics Fred Halliday,[12][13] Alan M. Wald,[14] and David S. Painter,[15] used the interchangeable terms to refer to the 1979–1985 and/or 1985–1991 phases of the Cold War. Some other sources[16][17] used interchangeable terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. Columnist William Safire argued in a 1975 New York Times editorial that the Nixon administration's policy of détente with the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was now underway.[18] Academic Gordon H. Chang in 2007 used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period after the 1972 meeting in China between US President Richard Nixon and Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong.[19]

In 1998, George Kennan called the US Senate vote to expand NATO to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies".[20]

The journalist Edward Lucas wrote his 2008 book The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West, claiming that a new cold war between Russia and the West had begun already.[21]

Russian-Western tensions

Sanctions 2014 Russia2
Several countries (green), many of which are NATO memebers and/or European Union members, introduced sanctions on Russia (blue) following the 2014–2015 Russian military intervention in Ukraine and 2015 Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
Russia USA Locator
The United States (orange) and Russia (green)

Sources disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future,[22][23][24][25] while others have used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalries that intensified dramatically in 2014 between Russia and its allies and the United States and its allies.[26]

Michael Klare, a RealClearPolitics writer and an academic, in June 2013 compared tensions between Russia and the West to the ongoing proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[27] Oxford Professor Philip N. Howard argued that a new cold war was being fought via the media, information warfare, and cyberwar.[4] In 2014, notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis,[28][29] that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring.[30][31] The American political scientist Robert Legvold also believes it started in 2013 during the Ukraine crisis.[32][33] Others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West.[34][35]

Stephen F. Cohen,[36] Robert D. Crane,[37] and Alex Vatanka[38] have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War". Andrew Kuchins, an American political scientist and Kremlinologist speaking in 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War.[39]

While new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences, such as modern Russia's increased economic ties with the outside world, which may potentially constrain Russia's actions,[40] and provide it with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in Belarus and Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action that Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine and the Caucasus region.[41] The term "Cold War II" has therefore been described as a misnomer.[42]

The term "Cold War II" gained currency and relevance as tensions between Russia and the West escalated throughout the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine followed by the Russian military intervention and especially the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposed punitive measures on Russia, which introduced retaliatory measures.[43][44]

Some observers, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,[45] judged the Syrian Civil War to be a proxy war between Russia and the United States,[46][47] and even a "proto-world war".[48] In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues".[49]

History of NATO enlargement
NATO has added 13 new members since the German reunification and the end of the Cold War

In an interview with Time magazine in December 2014, Gorbachev said that the US under Barack Obama was dragging Russia into a new cold war.[50] In February 2016, at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War",[51] while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War".[52] In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.[53][54]

In February 2016, a National Research University academic and Harvard University visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote on E-International Relations that "the world is not entering Cold War II", asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of both sides are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that situations in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilize other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was".[55] In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longer ideologically bipolar.[56]

In October 2016, John Sawers, a former MI6 chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington".[57] Similarly, Igor Zevelev, a fellow at the Wilson Center, said that "it's not a Cold War [but] a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation".[58] CNN opined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict".[58]

In January 2017, a former US Government adviser Molly K. McKew said at Politico that the US would win a new cold war.[59] The New Republic editor Jeet Heer dismissed the possibility as "equally troubling[,] reckless threat inflation, wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power in support of a costly policy", and too centred on Russia while "ignoring the rise of powers like China and India". Heer also criticized McKew for suggesting the possibility.[60] Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution, wrote in his blog post at RealClearPolitics, referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result".[61]

In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries and newer US sanctions against Russia.[62] In March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalist Megyn Kelly in an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda"-[63] Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at the CNA Corporation and a fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute said that the new cold war for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the US Naval War College claims that the situations in Georgia and Ukraine "seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War".[64]

In March 2018, Harvard University professors Stephen Walt[65] and then Odd Arne Westad[66] criticized the term usage as reference to increasing tensions between the Russia and the West as "misleading",[65] "distract[ing]",[65] and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics.

Amidst the deterioration of relations between both sides over a potential US-led military strike in Middle East after the Douma chemical attack in Syria and poisoning of the Skripals in the UK, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, told a meeting of the UN Security Council in April 2018 that "the Cold War was back with a vengeance". He suggested the dangers were even greater, as the safeguards that existed to manage such a crisis "no longer seem to be present".[67] Dmitri Trenin supported Guterres' statement, but added that it began in 2014 and had been intensifying since, resulting in US-led strikes on the Syrian government on 13 April 2018.[68]

In July 2018, Democratic congressman Steve Cohen stated that Russian interference in the US elections amounted to "an act of war" which the US needed to counter with "cyber attacks" against Russia. Cohen argued that Russia "invaded our country" and thus should be "crippled" by retributory cyber attacks that would have "made Russian society valueless".[69]

Russian news agency TASS reported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads (the first of which entered production in January 2019[70]) had increased the potential for the use of nuclear weapons.[71] TASS further reported Sergei stating that the withdrawal from the INF treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War".[71][72][73]

Sino-American tensions

China USA Locator
The United States (orange) and China (green)

The US senior defense official Jed Babbin,[74] Yale University professor David Gelernter,[75] Firstpost editor R. Jagannathan,[76] Subhash Kapila of the South Asia Analysis Group,[77] former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd,[78] and some other sources[79][80] have used the term (occasionally using the term the Pacific Cold War)[74] to refer to tensions between the United States and China in the 2000s and 2010s.

Talk of a "new Cold War" between a United States-led block of countries on the one hand and the putative Beijing-Moscow axis, including explicit references to it in the official PRC′s media, intensified in the summer of 2016 as a result of the territorial dispute in the South China Sea[81], when China defied the Permanent Court of Arbitration′s ruling against China on the South China Sea dispute, and the US announcing in July 2016 it would deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) in South Korea, a move resented by China as well as Russia and North Korea.[82]

Donald Trump, who was inaugurated as US President on 20 January 2017, had repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he considered China a threat, a stance that heightened speculations of the possibility of a "new cold war with China".[83][84][85] Claremont McKenna College professor Minxin Pei said that Trump's election win and "ascent to the presidency" may increase chances of the possibility.[86] In March 2017, a self-declared socialist magazine Monthly Review said, "With the rise of the Trump administration, the new Cold War with Russia has been put on hold", and also said that the Trump administration has planned to shift from Russia to China as its main competitor.[87]

External video
"Vice President Mike Pence's Remarks on the Administration's Policy Towards China"

In July 2018, Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the CIA's East Asia mission center, told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that he believed China under paramount leader Xi Jinping, while unwilling to go to war, was waging a "quiet kind of cold war" against the United States, seeking to replace the US as the leading global power. He further elaborated: "What they're waging against us is fundamentally a cold war — a cold war not like we saw during [the] Cold War (between the U.S. and the Soviet Union) but a cold war by definition".[88] In October 2018, a Hong Kong's Lingnan University professor Zhang Baohui told The New York Times that a speech by United States Vice President Mike Pence at the Hudson Institute "will look like the declaration of a new Cold War".[89]

In January 2019, Robert D. Kaplan of the Center for a New American Security wrote that "it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse".[90]

In February 2019, Joshua Shifrinson, an associate professor from Boston University, criticized the concerns about tensions between China and the US as "overblown", saying that the relationship between the two countries are different from that of the US–Soviet Union relations during the original Cold War, that factors of heading to another era of bipolarity are uncertain, and that ideology play a less prominent role between China and the US.[91]

See also

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External links

ASEAN Declaration

The ASEAN Declaration or Bangkok Declaration is the founding document of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It was signed in Bangkok on 8 August 1967 by the five ASEAN founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand as a display of solidarity against communist expansion in Vietnam and communist insurgency within their own borders. It states the basic principles of ASEAN: co-operation, amity, and non-interference. The date is now celebrated as ASEAN Day.

Asian Relations Conference

The Asian Relations Conference took place in New Delhi in March-April 1947. It was hosted by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who then headed a provisional government that was preparing for India's Independence, which came on 15 August 1947. The Asian Relations Conference brought together many leaders of the independence movements in Asia, and represented a first attempt to assert Asian unity. The objectives of the conference were "to bring together the leading men and women of Asia on a common platform to study the problems of common concern to the people of the continent, to focus attention on social, economic and cultural problems of the different countries of Asia, and to foster mutual contact and understanding."

In his writings and speeches, Nehru had laid great emphasis on the manner in which post-colonial India would rebuild its Asia connections. At this conference Nehru declared: "... Asia is again finding herself ... one of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another. ... Today this isolation is breaking down because of many reasons, political and otherwise ... This Conference is significant as an expression of that deeper urge of the mind and spirit of Asia which has persisted ... In this Conference and in this work there are no leaders and no followers. All countries of Asia have to meet together in a common task ..."

Cold War II (disambiguation)

Cold War II is an ongoing state of political tension. It may also refer to:

Cold war (general term) – a list of various tensions called "Cold War"

Cold War (1979–1985) – the second phase of the Cold War between the Eastern and Western Blocs, sometimes labelled the "Second Cold War"

Cold War 2 (film) – a 2016 film

Cold War II (ice hockey) – an ice hockey game

Cold war (general term)

A cold war is a state of conflict between nations that does not involve direct military action but is pursued primarily through economic and political actions, propaganda, acts of espionage or proxy wars waged by surrogates. This term is most commonly used to refer to the Soviet-American Cold War. The surrogates are typically states that are "satellites" of the conflicting nations, i.e., nations allied to them or under their political influence. Opponents in a cold war will often provide economic or military aid, such as weapons, tactical support or military advisors, to lesser nations involved in conflicts with the opposing country.

Czech Republic–Russia relations

Czech Republic–Russia relations are the bilateral foreign relations between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation. Unlike Russia, the Czech Republic is a member of Western institutions including the European Union, NATO and the OECD. Therefore, Russia–European Union relations and NATO–Russia relations are playing key role while the Czech Republic is a target of Russian attempts for espionage and propaganda. Following the Russian military intervention in Ukraine from 2014, the Czech Republic participates in economic sanctions against Russia. Ongoing tensions in the late 2010s have been described as the Cold War II.

The Czech Republic is also a favorite destination for Russian tourism as well as migration and brain drain from Russia due to high living standards, education and business opportunities in the Czech Republic.

Both countries are full members of the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The Czech Republic has an embassy in Moscow, and two consulates general (in Saint Petersburg and Yekaterinburg). The Russian Federation has an embassy in Prague, and two consulate generals (in Brno and Karlovy Vary).

Frozen conflict

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other perennial territorial disputes. The de facto situation that emerges may match the de jure position asserted by one party to the conflict; for example, Russia claims and effectively controls Crimea following the 2014 Crimean crisis despite Ukraine's continuing claim to the region. Alternatively, the de facto situation may not match either side's official claim. The division of Korea is an example of the latter situation: both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea officially assert claims to the entire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result in partially recognized states. For example, the Republic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozen Georgian–Ossetian conflict, is recognized by eight other states, including five UN members; the other three of these entities are partially recognized states themselves.

Glasnost

In the Russian language the word Glasnost (; Russian: гла́сность, IPA: [ˈɡɫasnəsʲtʲ] (listen)) has several general and specific meanings. It has been used in Russian to mean "openness and transparency" since at least the end of the eighteenth century.In the Russian Empire of the late-19th century, the term was particularly associated with reforms of the judicial system, ensuring that the press and the public could attend court hearings and that the sentence was read out in public. In the mid-1980s, it was popularised by Mikhail Gorbachev as a political slogan for increased government transparency in the Soviet Union.

Guerrilla war in the Baltic states

The Guerrilla war in the Baltic states or the Forest Brothers resistance movement was the armed struggle against Soviet rule that spanned from 1940 to the mid-1950s. After the occupation of the Baltic territories by the Soviets in 1944, an insurgency started. According to some estimates, 10,000 partisans in Estonia, 10,000 partisans in Latvia and 30,000 partisans in Lithuania and many more supporters were involved. This war continued as an organised struggle until 1956 when the superiority of the Soviet military caused the native population to adopt other forms of resistance. While estimates related to the extent of partisan movement vary, but there seems to be a consensus among researchers that by international standards, the Baltic guerrilla movements were extensive. Proportionally, the partisan movement in the post-war Baltic states was of a similar size as the Viet Cong movement in South Vietnam.

Jamaican political conflict

The Jamaican political conflict is a long standing feud between right-wing and left-wing elements in the country, often exploding into violence. The Jamaican Labor Party and the People's National Party have fought for control of the island for years and the rivalry has encouraged urban warfare in Kingston. Each side believes the other to be controlled by foreign elements, the JLP is said to be backed by the American Central Intelligence Agency and the PNP is said to been backed by the Soviet Union and Fidel Castro.

Johnson Doctrine

The Johnson Doctrine, enunciated by U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson after the United States' intervention in the Dominican Republic in 1965, declared that domestic revolution in the Western Hemisphere would no longer be a local matter when "the object is the establishment of a Communist dictatorship". It is an extension of the Eisenhower and Kennedy Doctrines.

List of conflicts related to the Cold War

While the Cold War itself never escalated into direct confrontation, there were a number of conflicts related to the Cold War around the globe, spanning the entirety of the period usually prescribed to it (March 12, 1947 to December 26, 1991, a total of 44 years, 9 months, and 2 weeks).

NDF Rebellion

The NDF Rebellion was an uprising in the Yemen Arab Republic by the National Democratic Front, under Yahya Shami, between 1978 and 1982.

Neo-Sovietism

Neo-Sovietism is the Soviet Union-style of policy decisions in some Post-Soviet states, as well as a political movement of reviving the Soviet Union in the modern world or to reviving specific aspects of Soviet life based on the nostalgia for the Soviet Union. Some commentators have said that current Russian President Vladimir Putin holds many neo-Soviet views, especially concerning law and order and military strategic defense.

The Big Chill at the Big House

The Big Chill at the Big House (a.k.a. Cold War II) was an outdoor college ice hockey game played on December 11, 2010, at Michigan Stadium at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Michigan Wolverines men's team defeated its rival, the Michigan State Spartans, 5–0. In a rematch of the Cold War outdoor game between the teams in 2001, the "Big Chill" set a record for hockey attendance with an official attendance of 104,173.

The New Cold War

The New Cold War may refer to:

Cold War II, tensions associated with one bloc typically reported as being led by Russia and/or China, and the other led by the United States, European Union, and NATO.

The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West, a 2008 book by Edward Lucas

The New Cold War: Moscow v. Pekin, a 1963 book by Edward Crankshaw

The new Cold War?: Religious Nationalism Confronts the Secular State, a 1993 book by Mark Juergensmeyer

The New Cold War: Revolutions, Rigged Elections, and Pipeline Politics in the Former Soviet Union, a 2007 book by Mark MacKinnon

Ulbricht Doctrine

The Ulbricht Doctrine, named after East German leader Walter Ulbricht, was the assertion that normal diplomatic relations between East Germany and West Germany could occur only if both states fully recognised each other's sovereignty. That contrasted with the Hallstein Doctrine, a West German policy which insisted that West Germany was the only legitimate German state.

East Germany gained acceptance of its view from fellow Communist states, such as Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, which all agreed not to normalise relations with West Germany until it recognised East German sovereignty.

West Germany eventually abandoned its Hallstein Doctrine, instead adopting the policies of Ostpolitik. In December 1972, a Basic Treaty between East and West Germany was signed that reaffirmed two German states as separate entities. The treaty also allowed the exchange of diplomatic missions and the entry of both German states to the United Nations as full members.

Weapon

A weapon, arm or armament is any device that can be used with intent to inflict damage or harm. Weapons are used to increase the efficacy and efficiency of activities such as hunting, crime, law enforcement, self-defense, and warfare. In broader context, weapons may be construed to include anything used to gain a tactical, strategic, material or mental advantage over an adversary or enemy target.

While ordinary objects – sticks, rocks, bottles, chairs, vehicles – can be used as weapons, many are expressly designed for the purpose; these range from simple implements such as clubs, axes and swords, to complicated modern firearms, tanks, intercontinental ballistic missiles, biological weapons, and cyberweapons. Something that has been re-purposed, converted, or enhanced to become a weapon of war is termed weaponized, such as a weaponized virus or weaponized laser.

Western Bloc

The Western Bloc during the Cold War refers to capitalist countries under the hegemony of the United States and NATO against the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. The latter were referred to as the Eastern Bloc. The governments and press of the Western Bloc were more inclined to refer to themselves as the "Free World" or the "Western world", whereas the Eastern Bloc was often called the "Communist world or Second world".

Western world

The Western world, also known as the West, refers to various nations depending on the context, most often including at least parts of Europe (Western and Northern Europe), Australasia, and North America (The United States and Canada), with the status of Latin America disputed by some. There are many accepted definitions, all closely interrelated. The Western world is also known as the Occident (from the Latin word occidens, "sunset, West"), in contrast to the Orient (from the Latin word oriens, "rise, East"), or Eastern world.

Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome are generally considered to be the birthplaces of Western civilization (with Greece having influenced the development of Rome): the former due to its impact on philosophy, democracy, science and art, building designs and proportions, architecture; the latter due to its influence on law, warfare, governance, republicanism, engineering and religion. Western civilization is also founded upon Christianity, which is in turn shaped by Hellenistic philosophy, Judaism and Roman culture. In the modern era, Western culture has been heavily influenced by the Renaissance, the Ages of Discovery and Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolutions. Through extensive imperialism and Christianization by Western powers in the 15th to 20th centuries, much of the rest of the world has been influenced by Western culture.

The concept of the Western part of the earth has its roots in the theological, methodological and emphatical division between the Western Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches. West was originally literal, opposing Catholic Europe with the cultures and civilizations of Orthodox Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the remote Far East, which early-modern Europeans saw as the East.

By the mid-20th century. worldwide export of Western culture went through the new mass media: film, radio and television and recorded music, while the development and growth of international transport and telecommunication (such as transatlantic cable and the radiotelephone) played a decisive role in modern globalization. In modern usage, Western world sometimes refers to Europe and to areas whose populations largely originate from Europe, through the Age of Discovery.

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See also

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