Base runs (BsR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician David Smyth to estimate the number of runs a team "should have" scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter or pitcher creates or allows. It measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' runs created, but as sabermetrician Tom M. Tango points out, base runs models the reality of the run-scoring process "significantly better than any other run estimator".
Base runs has multiple variations, but all take the form
Smyth detailed the following forms of the statistic:
The simplest, uses only the most common batting statistics
A = H + BB - HR
B = (1.4 * TB - .6 * H - 3 * HR + .1 * BB) * 1.02
C = AB - H
D = HR
An offshoot includes significantly more batting statistics
A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5 * IBB
B = (1.4 * TB - .6 * H - 3 * HR + .1 * (BB + HBP - IBB) + .9 * (SB - CS - GIDP)) * 1.1
C = AB - H + CS + GIDP
D = HR
A third formula uses pitching statistics
A = H + BB - HR
B = (1.4 * (1.12 * H + 4 * HR) - .6 * H - 3 * HR + .1 * BB) * 1.1
C = 3 * IP
D = HR
Other sabermetricians have developed their own formulas using Smyth's general form, mainly by tinkering with the B factor.
Because the base runs statistic attempts to model the team run scoring process, a formula cannot be applied directly to an individual player's statistics. Doing this would result in a run estimate for an entire team that puts out the individual's statistics. A workaround for this issue is to find the team's base runs with the player in the lineup and the team's base runs with a replacement level player in the lineup. The difference between these values approximates the individual's base runs statistic.
Base runs was primarily designed to provide an accurate model of the run scoring process at the Major League Baseball level, and it accomplishes that goal: in recent seasons, base runs has the lowest RMSE of any of the major run estimation methods. In addition, its accuracy holds up in even the most extreme of circumstances and leagues. For instance, when a solo home run is hit, base runs will correctly predict one run having been scored by the batting team. By contrast, when runs created assesses a solo HR, it predicts four runs to be scored; likewise, most linear weights-based formulas will predict a number close to 1.4 runs having been scored on a solo HR. This is because each of these models were developed to fit the sample of a 162-game MLB season; they work well when applied to that sample, of course, but are inaccurate when taken out of the environment for which they were designed. Base runs, on the other hand, can be applied to any sample at any level of baseball (provided it is possible to calculate the B multiplier), because it models the way the game of baseball operates, and not just for a 162-game season at the highest professional level. This means that base runs can be applied to high school or even little league statistics.
From the TangoTiger wiki
"Base runs adheres to more of the fundamental constraints on run scoring than most other run estimators, but it is by no means perfectly compliant. Some examples of shortcomings:
One avenue for possible improvement in the model is the scoring rate estimator B/(B + C). There is no deep theory behind this construct--it was chosen because it worked empirically. It is possible that a better score rate estimator could be developed, although it would most likely have to be more complex than the current one."
The 21st Space Wing is a unit of the United States Air Force Space Command based at Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado. The unit is tasked with the operation of early missile warning and space object detection equipment around the world in support of NORAD and USSTRATCOM through a network of command and control units and ground-based sensors operated by geographically separated units around the world.
The Wing's services include more than 9,000 government and contractor personnel who detect, track and catalog more than 14,000 catalogued man-made objects in space, from those in Low Earth orbit to objects up to 22,300 miles above the Earth's surface and explores counterspace warfighting technologies in the field.
On 12 August 2013, the Wing was told that it would stop operation of the aging Air Force Space Surveillance Systems by October due to budget cuts.Apostibes nivisignata
Apostibes nivisignata is a moth of the Scythrididae family. It was described by Lord Walsingham in 1914. It is found in Mexico (Guerrero).The wingspan is about 11 mm. The forewings are shining, pale bronzy fuscous, becoming dark purplish fuscous at the apex and through the apical cilia. From the middle of the base runs a silvery white streak along the fold, nearly to the wing-middle, where it is suddenly depressed and diffused to the dorsum. This is followed by a large, transverse, silvery white patch at the end of the cell, reaching the dorsum, and nearly reaching the costa, slightly bowed inward at its middle. The hindwings are dark bronzy fuscous.Baseball field
A baseball field, also called a ball field, sandlot or a baseball diamond, is the field upon which the game of baseball is played. The term can also be used as a metonym for a baseball park.Baseball statistics
Baseball statistics play an important role in evaluating the progress of a player or team.
Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics. Statistics have been kept for professional baseball since the creation of the National League and American League, now part of Major League Baseball.
Many statistics are also available from outside Major League Baseball, from leagues such as the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players and the Negro Leagues, although the consistency of whether these records were kept, of the standards with respect to which they were calculated, and of their accuracy has varied.Extrapolated Runs
Extrapolated Runs (XR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician Jim Furtado to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. XR measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' Runs Created, but it is a linear weights formula that assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula like James' creation.Gonioterma aesiocopia
Gonioterma aesiocopia is a moth in the Depressariidae family. It was described by Lord Walsingham in 1913. It is found in Mexico (Vera Cruz) and Panama.The wingspan is about 21 mm. The forewings are pale mouse grey, with a conspicuous fuscous spot on the cell at one-third, a small fuscous dot in the fold below and a little beyond it, and an obscure dot at the end of the cell. The costa is stained with yellowish brown from base to apex, and a white cloud-like band commencing at the base runs parallel with the costa nearly to the apex, sending an attenuated offshoot along the outer end of the cell, thence pointing inward along the cell; a narrow white band follows the termen from apex to tornus. The hindwings are pale yellowish grey.Interference (baseball)
In baseball, interference occurs in situations in which a person illegally changes the course of play from what is expected. Interference might be committed by players on the offense, players not currently in the game, catchers, umpires, or spectators. Each type of interference is covered differently by the rules.Kindlifresserbrunnen
The Kindlifresserbrunnen (Swiss German for Child Eater Fountain) is a fountain at the Kornhausplatz (Granary Place) in Bern, Switzerland. It is one of the Old City of Bern's fountains from the 16th century.
It was created in 1545/46 by Hans Gieng in place of a wooden fountain from the 15th century. The new fountain's original name was Platzbrunnen (Plaza Fountain); the current name was used first in 1666. Kindli is a Swiss German diminutive for the German word Kind, meaning child. A literal translation of the name Kindlifresserbrunnen therefore would be "Fountain of the Eater of Little Children".
The fountain sculpture is a sitting ogre devouring a naked child. Placed at his side is a bag containing more children. Because the ogre is wearing a pointed hat resembling a Jewish hat, it has been speculated about the possibility of the ogre being the depiction of a Jew as an expression of blood libel against Jews. Another theory is that the statue is the likeness of Krampus, the beast-like creature from the folklore of Alpine countries thought to punish children during the Christmas season who had misbehaved. According to other theories it is a depiction of the Greek god Cronus eating his children or the Roman Saturn eating the months, though Cronus should have six and Saturn twelve rather than the sculpture's eight. It may also represent a warning to children to avoid falling into the, at that time, nearby Bear Pits. Another theory is that it represented Cardinal Schiner who led the Swiss Confederation into several bloody defeats in northern Italy. An alternative theory is that it is a depiction of the older brother of Duke Berchtold (founder of Bern) who it is claimed, was so incensed by his younger brother's overshadowing of him that he collected and ate the town's children but such an incident is not recorded in Bern's history books. A final theory is that it is just a carnival character intended to frighten disobedient children.Around the fountain's base runs a frieze showing armed bears going to war, including a piper and a drummer. The frieze may have been designed by Hans Rudolf Manuel Deutsch.The Kindlifresserbrunnen is an important object in the novel L'ogre (The Ogre) by Jacques Chessex.LaGrave Field
LaGrave Field is an abandoned baseball park in Fort Worth, Texas. It was primarily used for baseball and was the home field of the Fort Worth Cats independent minor league baseball team. Its original version was the home of the predecessor Panthers/Cats team of the Texas League from 1926–1958; the American Association in 1959; and then in the Texas League again in 1964. It also served as the part-time home of the Dallas Rangers during 1960–1962. The ballpark was rebuilt during 2001 and opened in 2002 after the club played one season at Lon Goldstein Field.
The ballpark sits on land bounded by a parking lot and then North Calhoun Street (southwest, first base); Northeast 6th Street (if extended) (southeast, right field); Northeast 7th Street (if extended) (northwest, third base); and the banks of a branch of the Trinity River (northeast, left field). The imaginary line running from home plate through second base runs roughly east-southeast.
During the team's inaugural 2014 season, LaGrave Field hosted home games for the Fort Worth Vaqueros FC of the National Premier Soccer League.NERD (sabermetrics)
In baseball statistics, NERD (a wink towards the mnemonic "Narration, Exposition, Reflection, Description") is a quantitative measure of expected aesthetic value. NERD was originally created by Carson Cistulli and is part of his project of exploring the "art" of sabermetric research. The original NERD formula only took into account the pitcher's expected performance while the current model factors in the entire team's performance.Obelisk of Montecitorio
The Obelisk of Montecitorio (Italian: Obelisco di Montecitorio), also known as Solare, is an ancient Egyptian, red granite obelisk of Psammetichus II (595-589 BC) from Heliopolis. Brought to Rome with the Flaminio Obelisk in 10 BC by the Roman Emperor Augustus to be used as the gnomon of the Solarium Augusti, it is now in the Piazza Montecitorio. It is 21.79 metres (71 ft) high, and 33.97 metres (111 ft) including the base and the globe.Perrinia squamicarinata
Perrinia squamicarinata is a species of sea snail, a marine gastropod mollusk in the family Chilodontidae.Ptocheuusa scholastica
Ptocheuusa scholastica is a moth of the Gelechiidae family. It was described by Walsingham in 1903. It is found in Spain.The wingspan is 11–12 mm. The forewings are whitish, with a greyish tinge, sprinkled along the costal half with scattered fuscous scaling, a small elongate blackish dot beneath the costa at about one-third. Along the basal two-thirds of the fold, commencing near the base, runs a chestnut-brown streak edged with black, followed by an elongate black spot between the fold and the cell at about half the wing-length, this again is followed by an elongate rich chestnut-brown patch parallel to the termen, narrowly outlined with black at its outer edge. In the dirty greyish white cilia are four or five patches of blackish scales on their
basal half, the two below the apex produced more faintly outward through the outer half of the cilia. The hindwings are greyish.Pythagorean expectation
Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under-performing. The name comes from the formula's resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem.
The basic formula is:
where Win Ratio is the winning ratio generated by the formula. The expected number of wins would be the expected winning ratio multiplied by the number of games played.Run batted in
A run batted in (RBI), plural runs batted in (RBI or RBIs), is a statistic in baseball and softball that credits a batter for making a play that allows a run to be scored (except in certain situations such as when an error is made on the play). For example, if the batter bats a base hit, then another player on a higher base can head home to score a run, and the batter gets credited with batting in that run.
Before the 1920 Major League Baseball season, runs batted in were not an official baseball statistic. Nevertheless, the RBI statistic was tabulated—unofficially—from 1907 through 1919 by baseball writer Ernie Lanigan, according to the Society for American Baseball Research.Common nicknames for an RBI include "ribby" (or "ribbie"), "rib", and "ribeye". The plural of RBI is generally "RBIs", although some commentators use "RBI" as both singular and plural, as it can also stand for "runs batted in".Runs created
Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.Stolen base percentage
Stolen base percentage is a statistic used in baseball.
A player's stolen base percentage (a.k.a. SB%) measures his rate of success in stealing bases. Because stolen bases tend to help a team less than times caught stealing hurt, a player needs to have a high stolen base percentage in order to contribute much value to his team. A commonly used figure is that a player needs to succeed about 2/3 of the time to break even.
With 300 minimum career attempts, Carlos Beltrán currently holds the record for highest Stolen base percentage in the Major Leagues, with .881, with Tim Raines in second, with .847.
Total Baseball developed a statistic related to stolen base percentage called "Stolen Base Runs" or SBR.
(.3 x Stolen Bases) - (.6 x Caught Stealing)
This Total Baseball statistic is aimed at quantifying base-stealing. Numerous statistical studies done by Total Baseball have shown that the break even success rate for steals (the rate at which an attempt to steal is neither helping nor hurting the team in terms of total runs scored) is about 67%. Each successful steal adds approximately .3 runs to a team's total runs scored which is much less than often believed. Therefore, the statistic is meant to estimate the impact of base-stealers, which, other than the elite base-stealers, rarely amounts to more than a few runs per year for each team.Tim Raines
Timothy Raines Sr. (born September 16, 1959), nicknamed "Rock", is an American professional baseball coach and former player. He played as a left fielder in Major League Baseball for six teams from 1979 to 2002 and was best known for his 13 seasons with the Montreal Expos. He is regarded as one of the best leadoff hitters and baserunners in baseball history. In 2013, Raines began working in the Toronto Blue Jays organization as a roving outfield and baserunning instructor.Raines is the 1986 NL batting champion, a seven-time All-Star, and four-time stolen base champion. He was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2017.Ypsolopha maculatella
Ypsolopha maculatella is a moth of the family Ypsolophidae. It is known from the United States, including Arizona and California.The wingspan is about 20–22 mm.The antennae are white, sharply annulated with dark brown except on the basal fourth. The labial palpi are white. The face is also white and the head and thorax are ochreous white. The forewings are ochreous white, while the basal half of the costal edge is ochreous fuscous. From the base runs a broad, dark, ochreous fuscous band outwards below the fold, touching the dorsal edge and then curving upwards to the fold. At the end of the cell is a large, oblong, pronounced, dark fuscous spot, produced into a still larger paler ochreous patch, which covers most of the apical third of the wing and emits three dark fingers to the costal edge. The hindwings are paler fuscous. The abdomen is ochreous white and the legs are white, mottled with black exteriorly.