2010 Victorian state election

The 2010 Victorian state election, held on Saturday, 27 November 2010, was for the 57th Parliament of Victoria. The election was to elect all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu. The election gave the Coalition a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament.

Voting is compulsory in Victoria. Elections for the Legislative Assembly use instant-runoff voting (called preferential voting in Australia) in single-member electorates (called districts). Elections for the Legislative Council use partial proportional representation, using single transferable vote (also called preferential voting) in multi-member electorates (called regions). Members of the Legislative Council are elected from eight electoral regions each returning five members, making the quota for election in each region 16.67%. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Victorian state election, 2010

27 November 2010

All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
45 seats were needed for a majority
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
  Chinese New Year 2013 85 - Ted Baillieu (8459813505) JohnBrumby2007crop
Leader Ted Baillieu John Brumby
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 8 May 2006 30 July 2007
Leader's seat Hawthorn Broadmeadows
Last election 32 seats 55 seats
Seats won 45 seats 43 seats
Seat change Increase13 Decrease12
Percentage 51.58% 48.42%
Swing Increase5.96 Decrease5.96

Premier before election

John Brumby
Labor

Premier after election

Ted Baillieu
Liberal/National coalition

Background

At the 1999 election, the Labor Party led by Steve Bracks was able to form a minority government with the parliamentary support of 3 Independents, displacing the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.

Political changes

The previous elections took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. At the 2006 election, the Labor Party won 55 of the 88 seats, the Liberal Party won 23, the National Party won 9, and there was 1 Independent. Since that date a number of political changes took place.

Both Premier Bracks and Deputy Premier John Thwaites resigned on 27 July 2007.

By-elections

Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-elections took place. In Bracks' seat of Williamstown and Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.[1]

Campaign

Brian Walters Adam Bandt Bob Brown DSC 6070
Adam Bandt, Brian Walters and Bob Brown of the Greens during the election campaign

The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition, which they had not done since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000.[2] The Liberal Party departed from tradition and gave their preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, thereby decreasing the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor.[3]

The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".

Issues

The Coalition campaigned heavily against the Brumby Government's new Myki ticketing system, which had been delivered at triple the projected cost and years behind schedule, as well as its construction of an expensive desalination plant that many claimed was unnecessary. Other issues included health, education, and law and order. Ted Baillieu promised to restore the budget to surplus, employ more nurses and police, make Victorian teachers the highest paid in the country, and abolish suspended sentences which were seen as out of touch with community standards.

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal

National

Results

Legislative Assembly

VictoriaElection2010-DistrictResults
Lower house seat outcome of the Victorian 2010 election

Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[4][5]
Legislative Assembly
<< 20062014 >>

Enrolled voters 3,582,232
Votes cast 3,329,865 Turnout 92.96 +0.23
Informal votes 165,134 Informal 4.96 +0.40
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 1,203,654 38.03 +3.59 35 +12
  Labor 1,147,348 36.25 –6.81 43 –12
  Greens 354,697 11.21 +1.17 0 ±0
  National 213,492 6.75 +1.58 10 +1
  Family First 72,354 2.29 –2.00 0 ±0
  Country Alliance 42,938 1.36 +1.36 0 ±0
  Democratic Labour 28,176 0.89 +0.89 0 ±0
  Sex Party 17,252 0.55 +0.55 0 ±0
  Socialist Alliance 1,787 0.06 +0.02 0 ±0
  Christian Democrats 636 0.02 +0.02 0 ±0
  Other 82,395 2.60 +0.31 0 –1
Total 3,164,729     88  
Two-party-preferred
  Liberal/National 1,633,312 51.58 +5.97
  Labor 1,533,225 48.42 –5.97

Labor suffered a swing of 5.96 percent, a larger swing than the 1992 landslide that brought the Jeff Kennett-led Coalition to power.[6] However, much of that swing was wasted on landslide victories in the Coalition's heartland. As a result, the Coalition only just managed the 13-seat swing it needed to make Baillieu premier, netting it a bare majority of two seats.

On 29 November, with the result beyond doubt, Brumby conceded defeat. He resigned as state Labor leader the next day. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010,[7] and former Health Minister Daniel Andrews was elected Labor leader on 3 December.[8]

Legislative Council

Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[4]
Legislative Council
<< 20062014 >>

Enrolled voters 3,582,232
Votes cast 3,328,861 Turnout 92.93 +0.20
Informal votes 112,475 Informal 3.37 −0.91
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,137,461 35.36 −6.09 16 –3
  Liberal (metropolitan) 792,702 24.65 +3.35 12 +3
  Liberal/National 595,330 18.51 +0.83    
    Liberal (country) 6 ±0
    National 3 +1
  Greens 386,172 12.01 +1.43 3 ±0
  Family First 91,982 2.86 −0.99 0 ±0
  Democratic Labour 75,080 2.33 +0.36 0 −1
  Sex Party 61,542 1.91 +1.91 0 ±0
  Country Alliance 53,149 1.65 +1.20 0 ±0
  Christian Democrats 12,322 0.38 +0.18 0 ±0
  Other 10,646 0.33 0 ±0
Total 3,216,386     40  

Legislative Council Seats Table

Legislative Council Region Seats held
Eastern Metropolitan Region          
Eastern Victoria Region          
Northern Metropolitan Region          
Northern Victoria Region          
South Eastern Metropolitan Region          
Southern Metropolitan Region          
Western Metropolitan Region          
Western Victoria Region          
  Liberal
  National
  Labor
  Green

In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.[9][10]

Seats changing hands

Seat Pre-2010 Swing Post-2010
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bentleigh   Labor Rob Hudson 6.3 -7.1 0.8 Elizabeth Miller Liberal  
Burwood   Labor Bob Stensholt 3.7 -9.6 5.9 Graham Watt Liberal  
Carrum   Labor Jenny Lindell 6.7 -8.7 2.0 Donna Bauer Liberal  
Forest Hill   Labor Kirstie Marshall 0.8 -3.9 3.2 Neil Angus Liberal  
Frankston   Labor Alistair Harkness 3.2 -5.3 2.1 Geoff Shaw Liberal  
Gembrook   Labor Tammy Lobato 0.7 -7.5 6.8 Brad Battin Liberal  
Gippsland East   Independent Craig Ingram 9.1 -21.1 12.0 Tim Bull National  
Mitcham   Labor Tony Robinson 2.0 -4.7 2.8 Dee Ryall Liberal  
Mordialloc   Labor Janice Munt 3.5 -5.6 2.1 Lorraine Wreford Liberal  
Mount Waverley   Labor Maxine Morand 0.3 -7.8 7.4 Michael Gidley Liberal  
Prahran   Labor Tony Lupton 3.6 -7.8 4.3 Clem Newton-Brown Liberal  
Seymour   Labor Ben Hardman 6.7 -7.9 1.2 Cindy McLeish Liberal  
South Barwon   Labor Michael Crutchfield 4.1 -6.2 3.9 Andrew Katos Liberal  

In 2006, the final Gippsland East 2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals

Key dates

Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[11]

Key dates for the election were:[12]

  • 2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and lodgement of election writs
  • 9 November: Close of rolls
  • 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
  • 12 November: Close of nominations for independents
  • 15 November: Early voting commences
  • 25 November: Close of postal voting
  • 26 November: Early voting closes
  • 27 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.

Better Premier ratings^
Labor
Brumby
Liberal
Baillieu
2010 election
23 – 25 Nov 2010 48% 38%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 50% 36%
Sep – Oct 2010 49% 31%
Jul – Aug 2010 52% 27%
May – Jun 2010 47% 31%
Mar – Apr 2010 49% 29%
Jan – Feb 2010 51% 29%
Nov – Dec 2009 54% 26%
Sep – Oct 2009 52% 27%
Jul – Aug 2009 52% 27%
May – Jun 2009 54% 21%
Jan – Feb 2009 54% 22%
Nov – Dec 2008 49% 27%
Sep – Oct 2008 45% 27%
Jul – Aug 2008 48% 26%
May – Jun 2008 51% 28%
Mar – Apr 2008 49% 23%
Jan – Feb 2008 48% 25%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 22%
Sep – Oct 2007 51% 25%
2006 election
22 – 23 Nov 2006 53%1 30%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian.
1 Steve Bracks.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
2010 election 36.3% 38.0% 6.7% 11.2% 7.8% 48.4% 51.6%
23 – 25 Nov 2010 33% 40% 5% 15% 7% 48.9% 51.1%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 37% 39% 5% 14% 5% 51% 49%
Sep – Oct 2010 35% 36% 4% 19% 6% 52% 48%
Jul – Aug 2010 38% 32% 4% 17% 9% 55% 45%
May – Jun 2010 34% 36% 4% 18% 8% 51% 49%
Mar – Apr 2010 37% 38% 3% 14% 8% 52% 48%
Jan – Feb 2010 39% 36% 3% 14% 8% 54% 46%
Nov – Dec 2009 41% 32% 3% 14% 10% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2009 43% 32% 3% 15% 7% 57% 43%
Jul – Aug 2009 43% 35% 2% 12% 8% 56% 44%
May – Jun 2009 42% 34% 3% 14% 7% 56% 44%
Jan – Feb 2009 46% 31% 2% 15% 6% 60% 40%
Nov – Dec 2008 45% 34% 3% 13% 5% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2008 37% 37% 4% 15% 7% 51% 49%
Jul – Aug 2008 41% 34% 4% 12% 9% 54% 46%
May – Jun 2008 41% 35% 3% 14% 7% 55% 45%
Mar – Apr 2008 44% 33% 3% 12% 8% 58% 42%
Jan – Feb 2008 43% 34% 3% 12% 8% 56% 44%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 31% 3% 9% 6% 60% 40%
Sep – Oct 2007 49% 36% 4% 6% 5% 56% 44%
2006 election 43.1% 34.4% 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 54.4% 45.6%
22 – 23 Nov 2006 45% 32% 5% 9% 9% 56% 44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.[13]

Newspaper endorsements

Dailies   Sundays
Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement
The Age Labor[14] The Sunday Age Labor[15]
The Australian Labor[16] The Weekend Australian
The Australian Financial Review Labor[17]
The Herald Sun Labor[18] Sunday Herald Sun Labor[19]

References

  1. ^ Speaker decides against Ivanhoe by-election, ABC News, 14 September 2010.
  2. ^ Best, Catherine (2008-02-11). "Coalition reunites in Victoria". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2010-03-14.
  3. ^ "Greens still hopeful of winning seats". Abc.net.au. 1980-10-02. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  4. ^ a b "State Election 2010 results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 11 December 2010.
  5. ^ "Statistical overview of the election" (PDF). Report to Parliament on the 2010 Victorian State election. Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 January 2012.
  6. ^ Austin, Paul (16 December 2010). "The figures point to electoral wilderness for Victorian Labor". Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 2 September 2011.
  7. ^ "Baillieu sworn in as Premier". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  8. ^ 5 Minutes 10 Minutes. "Daniel Andrews new Victorian Labor leader". Theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  9. ^ "Upper house summary". ABC. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  10. ^ "Coalition wins Upper House majority". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 14 December 2010.
  11. ^ "Section 63, Electoral Act 2002". Retrieved 2010-09-06.
  12. ^ "2010 Victorian state election information: VEC". Vec.vic.gov.au. 2010-08-20. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
  13. ^ "'Swing is on' as voters turn against Labor: ABC News 27 November 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
  14. ^ "Leaders have delivered a choice between clear alternatives". Melbourne: The Age. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  15. ^ "Labor? Liberal? What difference would it make?". Melbourne: The Sunday Age. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  16. ^ "The compelling case for a vote against complacency". The Australian. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  17. ^ "Brumby earns another term". The Australian Financial Review. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  18. ^ "A tight contest between clones". The Herald Sun. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  19. ^ "Victoria deserves strong leadership from next state government". Sunday Herald Sun. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
Bill Tilley

William John Tilley (born 29 March 1963) is the Liberal Party member for the seat of Benambra in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. He was elected at the 2006 Victorian state election, beating Labor candidate and Wodonga mayor Lisa Mahood and former Nationals Upper House member Bill Baxter.

Prior to his candidacy, Tilley served in the Australian Army and then the Victoria Police.

Brian Walters

Brian Walters is a prominent Melbourne barrister and human rights advocate. Brian was the Greens candidate for the state seat of Melbourne in the 2010 Victorian state election.

Candidates of the 2010 Victorian state election

This is a list of candidates for the 2010 Victorian state election. The election was held on 27 November 2010.

Dee Ryall

Deanne (Dee) Sharon Ryall (born 16 June 1967) is an Australian politician. She was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly representing the electorate of Mitcham for the Liberal Party from 2010 to 2014 and Ringwood from 2014 to 2018.

Fiona Richardson

Fiona Catherine Alison Richardson (22 November 1966 – 23 August 2017) was an Australian politician. She was an Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2006 until her death in 2017, representing the electorate of Northcote. She was Minister for Women and Minister for Prevention of Family Violence in the Andrews Ministry.

Inga Peulich

Inga Peulich (born 15 October 1956) is an Australian politician. She was a member of the Legislative Council representing South Eastern Metropolitan Region from 2006 to 2018. Following the 2014 State election, Peulich was appointed the offices of Shadow Minister for Multicultural Affairs and Shadow Minister for Scrutiny of Government, but was removed from the latter role in 2017.

James Purcell (politician)

James Desmond Purcell (born 7 January 1953) is an Australian politician. He was a Vote 1 Local Jobs member of the Victorian Legislative Council, having represented Western Victoria Region from 2014 to 2018.

John Brumby

John Mansfield Brumby (born 21 April 1953), is a former Victorian Labor Party politician who was Premier of Victoria from 2007 to 2010. He became leader of the Victorian Labor Party and Premier after the resignation of Steve Bracks. He also served as the Minister for Veterans' Affairs and the Minister for Multicultural Affairs. He contested his first election as Premier at the November 2010 Victorian state election. His government was defeated by the Liberal/National Coalition led by Ted Baillieu. Brumby resigned as Labor leader after the election, on 30 November, to be replaced by Daniel Andrews. Within weeks of this leadership change, Brumby left parliament, with a Broadmeadows by-election taking place on 19 February 2011.

Brumby currently is the national president of the Australia China Business Council (ACBC).

Lord Mayor of Melbourne by-election, 2018

The Lord Mayor of Melbourne election 2018 was held by postal ballot from 23 April until 11 May 2018 to elect the Lord Mayor of Melbourne. It was triggered by the resignation of the 103rd Lord Mayor, Robert Doyle, amidst allegations of sexual harassment. The election used a preferential voting system.

Natalie Hutchins

Natalie Maree Hutchins (née Sykes, born 9 March 1972), also known as Natalie Sykes-Hutchins, is an Australian politician. She has been an Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010, representing the electorates of Keilor (2010–2014) and Sydenham (2014–present). She has been Minister for Local Government, Minister for Aboriginal Affairs and Minister for Industrial Relations in the Andrews Ministry since December 2014.

A former union organiser, Hutchins was first woman to be elected Assistant Secretary of the Victorian Trades Hall Council (VTHC). She was a Senior Advisor to the former Premier of Victoria, Steve Bracks, Chief of Staff to the former Victorian Minister of Education, Mary Delahunty, and was a founding partner in the research and strategy company Global Workplace Solutions. Hutchins, a member of Labor's Unity faction, is a member of the Australian Labor Party National Executive.

The widow of Steve Hutchins, a former Senator for New South Wales, she has one child and five step-children.

Peter Hall (politician)

Peter Ronald Hall (born 27 May 1952) is an Australian retired politician. He was a National member of the Victorian Legislative Council from 1988 to 2014, representing Gippsland Province (1988–2006) and the Eastern Victoria Region (2006–2014).

Phil Cleary

Philip Ronald Cleary (born 8 December 1952) is an Australian commentator on politics and sport, particularly Australian rules football, and a former independent politician elected at the 1992 Wills by-election.

Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Victorian state election

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 Victorian state election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swings usually tend to cancel each other out. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Rob Hudson

Robert John "Rob" Hudson (born 9 December 1955, Melbourne, Victoria) is a former Australian politician, and was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Labor Party. He holds honours degrees in Social Work and Law. Hudson is a supporter of the Hawthorn Hawks football club.

Hudson was elected to the Bentleigh electorate in the 2002 state election defeating incumbent Inga Peulich. He was re-elected in 2006.

Stephen Mayne

Stephen Mayne (born 23 July 1969) is an Australian Walkley Award winning journalist, local government councillor, and self-described shareholder activist.

Ted Baillieu

Edward Norman Baillieu (born 31 July 1953) is a former Australian politician who was Premier of Victoria from 2010 to 2013. He was a Liberal Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2014, representing the electorate of Hawthorn. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party in opposition in 2006, and served as Premier from 2010 until 2013 after winning the 2010 state election. He resigned as Premier on 6 March 2013, and was succeeded by Denis Napthine.

Tim Bull

Timothy Owen Bull (born 9 December 1966) is an Australian politician. He has been a National Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010, representing the electorate of Gippsland East. He served as Minister for Local Government and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs in the Napthine Ministry from March to December 2014.

Wodonga

Wodonga

is a city on the Victorian side of the border with New South Wales, 300 kilometres (190 mi) north-east of Melbourne, Australia. It is located wholly within the boundaries of the City of Wodonga LGA. Its population is 39,351 as of the 2016 Census and is separated from its twin city in New South Wales, Albury, by the Murray River. Together, the two cities form an urban area with an estimated population of 92,218.

Zoe Belle Gender Collective

Zoe Belle Gender Collective (ZBGC), formerly known as the Zoe Belle Gender Centre, is a Melbourne, Victoria-based organization that is concerned with the health and well-being of transgender and other gender diverse people. Among its activities, the organization has been campaigning for the establishment of a community centre. Zoe Belle Gender Collective was founded in 2007 and is named after the late transgender activist Zoe Belle.

This page is based on a Wikipedia article written by authors (here).
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 3.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.