Indiana Republican primary, 2016

The 2016 Indiana Republican primary was held on May 3 in the U.S. state of Indiana as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Democratic Party held their own Indiana primary on the same day, which was won by Bernie Sanders. Other primaries were not scheduled for that day.

Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Governor John Kasich.jpg
Governor John Kasich.jpg
Indiana Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Indiana Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Indiana-StateSeal.svg
Indiana-StateSeal.svg

Primary

Pre-primary strategies

By late April, Cruz and Kasich had both been eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates, but they still had a chance to accumulate enough delegates to force a contested convention in Cleveland. Realizing this, Cruz and Kasich attempted to focus their efforts in different states, with Cruz challenging Trump head-to-head in Indiana and Kasich challenging Trump head-to-head in Oregon and New Mexico. However, the alliance was tenuous at best, with Kasich telling voters in Indiana the next day to still vote for him and Cruz downplaying the alliance later in the week; it also met with disapproval from 58% of Indiana voters.

Final attempts to stop Trump

Indiana was seen as the final state for the "Stop Trump" movement. Indiana, whose delegates were awarded winner-take all statewide and by congressional district, was seen as essential to denying Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Following the Acela primaries, Cruz attempted to bolster his chances by announcing that, if nominated, he would name Fiorina as his running mate. Fiorina had served as a Cruz campaign surrogate since March after suspending her own presidential campaign in February and Cruz hoped that Fiorina could help his campaign in Indiana and her home state of California. On April 29, 2016, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana announced that he would vote for Cruz in the primary election. However, Cruz's posturing and endorsements proved to be insufficient, as Trump handily won Indiana with 53% of the vote, despite being outspent by a margin of more than 4-1. Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race.

Trump emerges as Republican nominee

Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race. As a result, Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman, tweeted that Trump was the presumptive nominee in the GOP. The next day, Kasich also suspended his campaign, leaving Trump as the only candidate in the race. Despite his endorsement of Cruz, Mike Pence went on to become Trump's running mate.

Opinion polling

List of polls
Winner
Donald Trump
Primary date
May 3, 2016
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results May 3, 2016 Donald Trump
53.25%
Ted Cruz
36.64%
John Kasich
7.57%
Ben Carson 0.80%, Jeb Bush 0.59%, Marco Rubio 0.47%, Rand Paul 0.39%, Chris Christie 0.16%, Carly Fiorina 0.13%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 379

April 28–29, 2016 Donald Trump
44%
Ted Cruz
27%
John Kasich
9%
Undecided 19%
ARG

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 400

April 27–28, 2016 Donald Trump
41%
Ted Cruz
32%
John Kasich
21%
Undecided 6%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 645

April 26–28, 2016 Donald Trump
49%
Ted Cruz
34%
John Kasich
13%
Undecided 4%
IPFW

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

April 13–27, 2016 Ted Cruz
45%
Donald Trump
29%
John Kasich
13%
Undecided 13%
Clout Research

Margin of error: ±4.75%
Sample size: 423

April 27, 2016 Donald Trump 37.1% Ted Cruz
35.2%
John Kasich
16.3%
Undecided 11.4%
CBS News/YouGov

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 548

April 20–22, 2016 Donald Trump 40% Ted Cruz
35%
John Kasich
20%
Undecided 5%
Fox News

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 602

April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
41%
Ted Cruz
33%
John Kasich
16%
Undecided 7%, None 2%
POS/Howey Politics Indiana/WTHR Channel

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 507

April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
37%
Ted Cruz
31%
John Kasich
22%
Undecided 7%, Other 2%
Bellwether

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 670

December 2–9, 2015 Donald Trump
26%
Ted Cruz
17%
Marco Rubio
17%
Ben Carson 16%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%

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